NHL Predictions | Maple Leafs, Utah, Kings Best Bets Today

NHL Best Bets for Monday Night

Dive into tonight’s NHL action with our breakdown of the top matchups and betting opportunities. With key stats and insights, we’ll help you identify value across the board, from longstanding rivalries to up-and-coming teams looking to make their mark.

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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Monday night features a classic rivalry as the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Tampa Bay Lightning in a pivotal Atlantic Division clash. The betting market has been hesitant to back the Maple Leafs recently, but we see a strong case for Toronto to come out on top at home.

While Tampa Bay has posted solid results, going 5-1-1 in its last seven games, their advanced stats tell a different story. The Lightning have managed a modest 47.9% expected goals-for (xGF) rating during this stretch, outperforming their actual gameplay.

Under Craig Berube’s new system, the Maple Leafs have adjusted their analytics approach. Although their metrics have slightly dipped, they’ve maintained their spot atop the Atlantic Division, bolstered by positive ratings in both shots-for and high-danger chances. Toronto’s underwhelming metrics have caused skepticism in the betting market, but the results are undeniable. Backing the Maple Leafs Moneyline at this price presents substantial value.

Best Bet: Maple Leafs Moneyline -110

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Winnipeg Jets vs Utah Hockey Club

The NHL’s newest team, the Utah Hockey Club, faces a tough test on Monday night against the Central Division-leading Winnipeg Jets. Despite being underdogs, there’s a solid case for Utah to pull off an upset.

Utah’s recent results don’t reflect their solid play, as they’ve lost three of their past four games. However, their underlying metrics tell a different story. With a 53.4% xGF rating over their last eight games, the Hockey Club is outperforming their earlier season benchmark of 46.2%. These metrics suggest Utah is poised to bounce back soon.

On the flip side, the Jets have been running hot, operating well above their usual standards. Winnipeg’s recent 66.4% xGF rating is impressive but unsustainable compared to their season-long average of 51.0%. With road games against divisional rivals ahead, Winnipeg could struggle to maintain its current level. This sets up Utah as a high-value underdog.

Best Bet: Utah Moneyline +134

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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Los Angeles Kings

The Pittsburgh Penguins continue to face major goaltending issues, making them vulnerable against the Los Angeles Kings. Monday night’s game heavily favors the Kings, who bring a strong analytical edge to the matchup.

The Kings rank fourth in the league with a 54.7% xGF rating and have consistently performed close to this level. Over their last five games, LA has maintained a 52.0% xGF rating, outplaying three opponents in the process. Their offensive zone dominance is another key advantage, averaging 9.4 high-danger chances per game over their last four contests.

In contrast, the Penguins have been let down by poor goaltending. Over the past six games, Pittsburgh’s netminders have combined for an 86.9% save percentage, conceding 23 goals in the process. The Kings, with their strong attacking play, are well-positioned to capitalize on Pittsburgh’s weaknesses and secure the win at home.

Best Bet: Kings Moneyline -188

*All Odds Courtesy FanDuel