SportsGrid NHL Model Picks for Saturday, April 13

Saturday is synonymous with hockey. It’s typically the busiest day of the week in the NHL, featuring a bevy of intriguing matchups. That leaves many in-roads for bettors looking for edges in the gambling market. 

To help players get a winning edge, we’re highlighting some of our favorite plays from the SportsGrid NHL Model.

NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs: Matchups if the First-Round Started Today

Boston Bruins vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Penguins Moneyline (+112): 5-Star Rating

Few people could have seen this coming. Ahead of the NHL’s Trade Deadline, the Pittsburgh Penguins moved on from one of their standout players Jake Guentzel, giving up their top scorer. Those moves precipitated a slide down the standings, seemingly ending all playoff hope. However, the Pens have responded by going 7-0-3 across their past ten to revive their playoff hopes. They aim to keep that streak intact Saturday versus the Boston Bruins. 

Finally, after months of underachieving, the Penguins offense has come alive. Sidney Crosby and company have scored three or more goals at five-on-five in six of their past seven, resulting in a scorching 17.3% shooting percentage. Still, they remain below their expected goals-for total with a PDO below 1.000, implying further progression is expected. 

The B’s have looked much less impressive lately. Boston has been outplayed in eight of its previous nine, resulting in a disastrous 42.2% expected goals-for rating, the fourth-worst over that stretch. Remarkably, the Bruins are 5-4-0 over that stretch with an actual goals-for rating of 51.2%.

Inevitably, the Bruins are stumbling towards regression, and the Penguins can facilitate that transaction at the PPG Paints Arena. Our preferred play entering tonight’s slate is backing the Pens as plus-money home underdogs. We rate it as a five-star play.

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Edmonton Oilers 
Canucks Moneyline (+120): 5-Star Rating

A pivotal Pacific Division battle goes down in Wild Rose country, with the Edmonton Oilers hosting the Vancouver Canucks. The Nucks sit three points clear of the Oilers for top spot in the division. According to your algorithm, Vancouver will insulate its position with a win on Saturday. 

Most notably, Connor McDavid has missed the Oilers past two games. Although they skated past the Vegas Golden Knights earlier in the week, they were so lucky against the Arizona Coyotes. The Oilers dropped a 3-2 overtime decision on Friday night, putting them on short rest without their best player against Vancouver. 

Conversely, the Canucks have been tormenting opponents with their recent efforts. Vancouver outplayed its opponents in four straight, accumulating a 60.6% expected goals-for rating over that stretch. Still, they only have two wins over that stretch, supporting the Nucks are due for a few more wins before the end of the campaign.

There’s a significant edge in backing the Canucks at the current price. They’ve been a force to reckon with over their past few games and should have no problems knocking off an Oilers squad without the best player in the world. Canucks moneyline is the play.

Assessing Auston Matthews & the Thrilling Toronto Maple Leafs

Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche Moneyline (-154): 5-Star Rating

The Winnipeg Jets carry their five-game winning streak into tonight’s Central Division clash versus the Colorado Avalanche. However, we’re predicting that comes to an end against an unstoppable Avalanche side. 

The Jets are flying high over their recent schedule, a position that is contraindicated with their current metrics. Winnipeg has been substantially outplayed over its past couple of outings, posting a 28.6% expected goals-for rating against the Nashville Predators. Moreover, they followed that up with a disappointing 45.8% effort the next time out versus the Dallas Stars. Those issues could be compounded as they wrap up their four-game road trip against one of the top teams in the league. 

Naturally, the Avalanche remain one of the top analytics teams in the league. Sitting top ten in most advanced categories, Colorado’s position of superiority is validated by its ninth-ranked 51.9% expected goals-for rating. Although they’ve fallen slightly off that pace more recently, four of their past eight game scores have yielded an expected goals-for rating above 60.0%.

The road-weary Jets are due for a letdown against the Avalanche. Colorado has put forth some decisive performances lately, amplifying its advantages over its division rivals. Consequently, backing the Avs is one of our top-rated plays on Saturday.

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