SportsGrid NHL Model Picks for Saturday, February 24

Saturday is synonymous with hockey. It’s typically the busiest day of the week in the NHL, featuring a bevy of intriguing matchups. That leaves many in-roads for bettors looking for edges in the gambling market. 

To help players get a winning edge, we’re highlighting some of our favorite plays from the SportsGrid NHL Model.

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Boston Bruins vs. Vancouver Canucks
Canucks Moneyline (-114): 5-Star Rating

Hockey purists will remember Saturday night’s contest between the Boston Bruins and Vancouver Canucks for what it is — a rematch of the 2011 Stanley Cup Final. Lucky for Vancouver, we’re predicting a decisive Canucks win, which should hopefully help avoid any of the post-game rioting. 

The Canucks will be happy to return home after an unsuccessful three-game road trip. Vancouver was winless on the business trip, allowing 18 goals against in all three contests. However, their metrics look substantially different at home. The Canucks have outplayed their opponents at home in six straight outings, accumulating a robust 59.4% expected goals-for rating. 

Unfortunately for the Bruins, their metrics have taken a turn for the worse lately. The B’s have been outplayed in three straight games and six of their previous nine, a span in which they’ve gone 3-3-3. That standing is not expected to improve as they play their third game in four nights, all of them coming on the road. 

The betting market is never quick to dismiss the Bruins’ chances, but we don’t share those apprehensions. The Canucks are short home favorites but are worth the investment as they skate past a beleaguered Bruins team.

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Nashville Predators vs. San Jose Sharks
Sharks Moneyline (+184): 5-Star Rating

Saturday’s tilt between the San Jose Sharks and Nashville Predators is not the most glamorous of matchups; however, it does reveal one of our most pronounced edges of the day. According to our algorithm, the Sharks are worth backing as steep +184 home underdogs. 

Nashville enters the Western Conference battle on a modest three-game winning streak, but that success is contraindicated in its metrics. The Preds have looked ineffective over their recent schedule, getting outplayed in three of five with a cumulative 43.0% expected goals-for rating. 

Moreover, the Predators are skating on the first night of a back-to-back, which will be a factor in goaltender usage. It also implies that they will need to offset their lackluster metrics with their backup netminder standing in the blue paint. 

San Jose’s offense has turned a corner recently, attempting ten or more high-danger chances in two straight. They should be rewarded for those efforts against a road-weary Preds squad. We’re using this opportunity to plant our flag in the Sharks moneyline at home.

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Vegas Golden Knights vs. Ottawa Senators
Senators Moneyline (-118): 5-Star Rating

The suddenly scorching Ottawa Senators aren’t willing to roll over and die yet, embracing their identity as playoff disruptors. Over the past week, the Sens have knocked off the Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning while giving the Florida Panthers all they could handle before losing in overtime. Now, Ottawa sets its sights on the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday night. 

Most importantly, the Senators’ improved play is grounded in solid analytics. Ottawa has posted an expected goals-for rating above 50.0% in all but one of its previous five, resulting in an improved 56.2% benchmark. The Sens are dominating on both ends of the ice, getting out-chanced in high-danger chances just once over that stretch. 

The Golden Knights have been much less effective lately. In fact, they’ve been downright awful. Vegas has been outplayed in three of its past five, posting game scores below 40.0% in all three contests. In total, the Knights have put forth an atrocious 41.3% rating across that sample, clearly illustrating their shortcomings. 

Analytically, these teams come into tonight’s contest on very different footing. The Sens have improved their on-oce product over the last couple of weeks, whereas the Golden Knights are getting steamrolled night after night. On that basis, our modeling reveals an edge in backing the Senators as short home favorites. We rate it as a five-star play.

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