SportsGrid NHL Model Picks for Saturday, March 16

Saturday is synonymous with hockey. It’s typically the busiest day of the week in the NHL, featuring a bevy of intriguing matchups. That leaves many in-roads for bettors looking for edges in the gambling market. 

To help players get a winning edge, we’re highlighting some of our favorite plays from the SportsGrid NHL Model.

Exciting Edmonton vs. Colorado Matchup Prediction and Analysis

Montreal Canadiens vs. Calgary Flames
Flames Moneyline (-160): 5-Star Rating

This may come as a surprise to many, but the trade deadline didn’t have a negative impact on the Calgary Flames. Calgary moved on from several marquee players ahead of March 8 but continues to churn out elite performances. They can lean into that momentum as they host the Montreal Canadiens at the Saddledome on Saturday night. 

Even without their former stars, the Flames remain a solid analytics team. Calgary has outplayed its opponents in three of the past five, accumulating a 52.9% expected goals-for rating over that stretch. They continue to rely on defensive structure to deliver their analytics success. The Flames have limited opponents to an average of 8.0 high-danger chances per game across the same five-game sample. 

Sadly for Habs fans, Montreal is trending in the opposite direction. The Canadiens have been outplayed in three of its past four, getting absolutely dominated over that stretch. Cumulatively, the Habs have put together a 42.5% expected goals-for rating. That drops their season-long average to 46.9%, the sixth-worst in the NHL. 

The betting market should be higher on the Flames. Calgary is the superior team, skating with home-ice advantage against the floundering Habs. We’re using this spot to back the Flames as moderate favorites, rating it as a five-star play. 

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

New Jersey Devils vs. Arizona Coyotes
Coyotes Moneyline (+142): 5-Star Rating

This season has been an utter disappointment for the New Jersey Devils, and they’ve seemingly given up on making anything of it. That benefits the Arizona Coyotes on Saturday night, as these teams connect for an inter-conference showdown. 

The Devils have been abysmal over the past couple of weeks. New Jersey has posted an expected goals-for rating below 50.0% in five of its past six, resulting in a disappointing 48.0% benchmark. The team has been lacking offensively, averaging 8.7 high-danger and 17.3 scoring chances per game. 

Surprisingly, the Coyotes have been on a tear as of late. Arizona has outplayed its opponents in five of eight, with all but three of those outings coming on the road. That improved analytics play correlates with fewer goals against. The Coyotes have held all but one of those opponents to two or fewer goals at five-on-five, yielding just nine goals against across that eight-game sample. 

Bettors are mistakenly putting their faith in the Devils, creating a sizeable advantage in backing the hosts. We’re planting our flag in the Coyotes moneyline as one of our preferred plays on Saturday night.

The Seattle Kraken’s honor Jordan Eberle is top notch

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers
Under 6.5 (-122): 5-Star Rating

Two intra-state rivals and Atlantic Division foes take to the ice in south Florida for a crucial test in Sunrise. The Florida Panthers are trying to maintain their lead atop the division, while the Tampa Bay Lightning are fighting for their playoff lives. Consequently, tonight’s battle should be a tightly contested affair. 

Narrative notwithstanding, the Panthers and Lightning have robust defensive metrics to boast about. Since February 22, Florida is limiting opponents to an average of 9.1 high-danger chances, with seven of 11 teams being held to nine or fewer. Tampa Bay has an even more suffocating standard, giving up an average of 7.3 over their previous nine. 

Predictably, those sterling defensive metrics correlate with fewer goals against. The Panthers have given up a paltry 13 goals against at five-on-five over the 11-game sample, resulting in a 94.3% save percentage. The Bolts have been below that, giving up 20 goals over their past nine. 

As inferred by the betting price, we’re expecting tonight’s battle between the Lightning and Panthers to be a low-scoring affair. Both teams are playing inspired defense, and those strengths will be emphasized with so much on the line. Look for this one to stay below 6.5 goals.

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