SportsGrid NHL Model Picks for Saturday, March 2

Saturday is synonymous with hockey. It’s typically the busiest day of the week in the NHL, featuring a bevy of intriguing matchups. That leaves many in-roads for bettors looking for edges in the gambling market. 

To help players get a winning edge, we’re highlighting some of our favorite plays from the SportsGrid NHL Model.

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Colorado Avalanche vs. Nashville Predators
Predators Moneyline (+114): 5-Star Rating

The Nashville Predators ascent up the standings continues on Saturday in a crucial Central Division matchup with the Colorado Avalanche. Winners of seven in a row, the Preds are looking to cement themselves as playoff contenders with a monumental victory over a Stanley Cup favorite. 

Nashville’s success is grounded in solid analytics. Over their seven-game win streak, the Preds have accumulated a 54.7% expected goals-for rating, sixth-best in the NHL over that stretch. As usual, defensive responsibility has been the foundation of their success, with the Preds limiting their opponents to a paltry 6.6 high-danger chances per game over that stretch. 

The Avs have been less successful over their recent sample, going 5-4-1 since February 8. There’s reason to believe that things will get worse before they get better. Over their past six games, the Avalanche have elevated their PDO to an unsustainable 1.079. Inevitably, their combined shooting and save percentage will regress toward the mean, bringing more losses with it. 

The Preds’ wins are grounded in sustainable metrics. Conversely, the Avs are teetering on the edge of a correction phase after overheating their metrics. We’re betting the hosts prevail in this Central Division battle, backing the Predators as +114 home underdogs.

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

New York Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Maple Leafs Moneyline (-128): 5-Star Rating

Another Saturday night featuring a Toronto Maple Leafs clash, this time against their Original Six rivals, the New York Rangers. Toronto has been one of the hottest teams in the NHL over the past few weeks, and there’s little resistance the Rangers can offer to stymie that momentum. 

The Leafs are getting hot at the right time of year. Toronto has won eight of its past nine, amplifying its offensive production to outpace their opponents. Across that sample, the Maple Leafs have out-chanced their opponents in high-danger chances by an 87-78 margin, for a 52.7% rating. Further, that’s tilted the expected goals-for rating in their direction, yielding a 52.3% benchmark.

The Rangers haven’t enjoyed the same level of analytics success. Using that same timeframe, New York has posted a lackluster 38.1% expected goals-for rating while getting outplayed in all seven of their matchups. Miraculously, the Rangers are 6-1-0 across that seven-game sample. 

The Broadway Blueshirts are on the brink of collapse. They can’t continue to get outplayed by such a substantial margin and win games. The Maple Leafs will be the team to expedite that regression and are worth backing as short home chalk on Saturday night. 

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Boston Bruins vs. New York Islanders
Islanders Moneyline (+110): 5-Star Rating

The New York Islanders are desperately trying to re-assert themselves as playoff contenders. However, they sit six points back of the final wild card spot, albeit with three games in hand. Standing in their way of making up ground in the Eastern Conference playoff race is the Boston Bruins. 

Still, some of the shine has worn off Boston over the past couple of weeks. Since February 19, the B’s have been outplayed in six of their seven outings, resulting in a 46.8% expected goals-for rating. Moreover, the Bruins have out-chanced their opponents in quality opportunities just once over that span, contributing to a 45.3% high-danger chance rating. 

Conversely, the Islanders are trending in the opposite direction. New York has outplayed its opponents in four straight and six of eight, a stretch in which they have only two wins. In reconciling expected metrics with actual outcomes, it’s evident that the Islanders are progression candidates over their coming games. 

These Eastern Conference foes are diametrically opposed. Based on their current form, the Islanders are deserving of more wins, while the Bruins have somehow managed to go 3-0-4 despite getting outplayed on a nightly basis. Those waves collide at UBS Arena, and we’re betting the Islanders prevail as +110 underdogs.

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