Olympic Games Paris 2024 Soccer Quarterfinals Japan vs. Spain

The group stage is over and the knockout round of the men’s soccer tournament is here. Japan has won every single game thus far and has their sights set on the podium, but first, they’ll have to go up against Spain in the quarterfinals. 

Japan is one of the form teams of the tournament joining France as the only teams to win every match. They beat Paraguay easily in a 5-0 win with a man advantage, following that impressive win with 1-0 victories over Mali and Israel. The Samurai Blue has kept things tight at the back. They haven’t always looked like the most dominant team but always seem to have enough in the tank to get it over the line.

Spain came in as favorites for the gold following their Euros win this summer. Despite the expectations for their squad they haven’t lit the world on fire. It took them a while to break down Uzbekistan in their 2-1 win, and they ended the group stage losing to underdogs Egypt 2-1 which caused them to finish second in their group. The best performance they’ve turned in was their 3-1 win against the Dominican Republic where they displayed their attacking edge. 

In that 3-1 win two of the members of that Euros team Fermín López, Álex Baena, looked at their best and alongside Miguel Gutiérrez showed just how dangerous their team is when they are in sync. Eric Garcia has performed admirably in defense but it has not been enough for the Spanish to keep a clean sheet. They’ve also struggled to turn their dominance in possession into goals consistently. 

Japan has had an edge in possession in all three of their matches, and even in the 1-0 victories finished the game as the team most in control. Shunsuke Mito has been a livewire in attack, making things happen and scoring two goals thus far. While Rihito Yamamoto has also been a difference maker, scoring twice as well including the goal that was the decider against Mali. Another star for the Samurai Blue has been their keeper Leo Kokubo who made multiple impressive saves in their matches to keep clean sheets. 

Men’s Olympic Soccer Quarterfinals Japan vs. Spain Best Bet

Spain has some talented players and was able to find the back of the net in all of their matches. Still, in their last match against Egypt we saw how difficult they can find it against a team that sits back and allows them to have possession. Japan will likely employ a similar strategy, they put five past Paraguay in their opener but that is the outlier. Against Israel and Mali they started slow and let the opposition dictate the tempo but did well to grow into the game. I think it’ll be a low-scoring affair and we won’t see the first goal until the second half of the match. 

Best Bet: Half-Time Result Draw (+100)

Men’s Olympic Soccer Quarterfinals Japan vs. Spain Best Prop Bet

Building off of the bet above this won’t be a game that features a deluge of goals. Japan’s keeper Leo Kokubo has been a brick wall and is a big reason Japan continued to keep clean sheets. Adding to that both teams have had matches where they’ve struggled to break down their opposition, and the natural cageyness of knockout games points towards a low-scoring match. 

Best Prop: Under 2.5 Goals (-154)

Men’s Olympic Soccer Quarterfinals Japan vs. Spain Prediction

Japan has just missed out on a medal twice in recent history. They finished fourth in 2012 and 2020 and qualified out of their World Cup group as the number one seed. This team like all the other recent iterations is an organized group that limits their mistakes. The Samurai Blue are comfortable playing without possession and seem to always have an extra gear to tap into. La Furia Roja will be upset at not finishing top of their group and getting a tougher knockout match, they will still back themselves with all their young talent to get through to the next stage. Funny enough when Japan made history as the first Asian team to top their group they beat Spain 2-1, I foresee another big day for Japan. 

Japan 1 – Spain 0