Predicting the Olympic Games Paris 2024 Men’s Basketball Bracket

The 2024 Olympic Games are here, and the stage is set for Paris. The men’s basketball field is gaining a ton of attention, and it is understandably so, as basketball stars from around the world are set to compete on the global stage. The USA team is the runaway favorite to wear the gold at -400, but teams like Canada, France, Serbia, and Germany are full of NBA talent and ready to face the USA team head-on. It should be a fun couple of weeks of basketball, so let’s dive into all the action and give you our predictions for who will ultimately medal.

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Olympic Games Paris 2024 Men’s Basketball Group Stage 

Group A (Gold Medal Odds)	Group B	Group C
Australia (+4000)	France (+1500)	Serbia (+1500)
Canada (+1000)	Germany (+2800)	South Sudan (+15000)
Greece (+3200)	Japan (+50000)	USA (-400)
Spain (+7500)	Brazil (+25000)	Puerto Rico (+25000)

Olympic Games Paris 2024 Men’s Basketball Knockout Qualifier Predictions

Format: Each team will play the other three teams in their group. Teams will earn two points for a win, one point for a loss, and zero points should a team have to forfeit. The top two teams from each group will advance to the knockout round, with the two best third-place finishing teams also advancing. There, teams will be ranked in “pots," where a bracket will be arranged with the top seeds on each side of the bracket. The rest of the bracket will be filled out according to ranks, but also to ensure teams from the same group are not set to face each other in the quarterfinal round.

Pot D (Top Two Teams)	Pot E (Teams 3 & 4)	Pot F (Teams 5 & 6)	Pot G (Teams 7 & 8)
USA	France	Germany	Brazil
Canada	Serbia	Australia	Spain

The Eliminated: Greece headlines the list of eliminated clubs, as we predict that Giannis Antetokounmpo cannot single-handedly lead his home country to the knockout round. Additionally, the lack of NBA talent on the rosters of Japan, South Sudan, and Puerto Rico ultimately will struggle, sending them home early. South Sudan, in particular, stole many headlines for how tough they played the USA in their exhibition match. Still, given that South Sudan and the USA are in the same group, the USA squad wants to send a message to South Sudan in the rematch.

Olympic Games Paris 2024 Men’s Basketball Quarterfinals Predictions

Predicted Matchup	Winner
USA vs. Spain	USA
Canada vs. Brazil	Canada
France vs. Australia	France
Serbia vs. Germany	Germany

Spain isn’t coming into these Olympics with much hype, given that they “graduated" multiple, now-retired NBA players who have been staples of past Olympic teams. Still, they boast quality talent in the Hernangomez brothers and current NBA players Santi Aldama and Usman Garuba. They may not have the dynamic guards to compete against the best in this tournament, but they have enough size to battle physically. Unfortunately, their run to the knockout stage ends when they run into the USA squad.

Brazil only has one current NBA player on its roster, Gui Santos, but it’ll have the benefit of playing in the same group as Japan, giving Brazil an easy path to one of the third-place bids. Unfortunately, it will be no match for a very strong Canadian team in the knockout round.

The Australian Boomers enter the games as a team with a ton of familiarity with each other, and will be a challenging out. Their roster is full of NBA players, headlined by Josh Giddey, Josh Green, and Patty Mills, giving them the dynamic guard play needed to advance in this setting. They’ll be able to outlast Greece in the group stage, giving them a great chance to advance to the knockout round, where a potential date with France gives the Boomers a tough matchup, given France’s size.

Germany won the FIBA World Cup a year ago and returned the same roster that was full of confidence as they walked into Paris. Dennis Schroder and the Wagner brothers give them NBA talent, and they have an impressive group of international players to round out their roster. They went to battle with the USA in their exhibition game, giving the Americans everything they could handle. We’re confident in their continuity outlasting Serbia in the knockout round, who could enter this game as a favorite given Nikola Jokic’s presence.

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Olympic Games Paris 2024 Men’s Basketball Semifinals Predictions

Predicted Matchup	Winner
USA vs. Germany	USA
Canada vs. France	France

Germany ran the USA off the court in the 2023 FIBA World Cup in an embarrassing fashion, and while the USA roster is all different outside of Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton, the rest of the roster better have been equally embarrassed from afar. The “tune-up" matchup between these two teams was a “tune-up" for a reason, so we expect the USA to get themselves to the Gold Medal game. 

Canada comes into the tournament as the second favorite behind the USA, but France has so much momentum and benefits from playing in their home country. Victor Wembanyama stars, but Rudy Gobert, Evan Fournier, Bilal Coulibaly, and Nic Batum round out an imposing squad loaded with other premier international talent. With Victor Wembanyama ready to put on a show at home, we’ll back France to take down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co., who will likely be favored in this matchup.

Olympic Games Paris 2024 Men’s Basketball Medal Predictions

Predicted Matchup	Winner
Gold Medal Game: USA vs. France	USA over France
Bronze Medal Game: Canada vs. Germany	Canada over Germany

The star-studded USA team against the NBA’s next biggest star in Victor Wembanyama in his home country is the matchup that a ton of people are hoping happens, and frankly, they’re absolutely right. Behind a rocking crowd in Paris, a ton of juice will be behind a fun France team, but at the end of the day, the USA has too much talent to go down. The French have too much talent to be blown out in their home country, but the USA roster was assembled only to dominate the Olympics. We’ll count on just that.

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Olympic Games Paris 2024 Men’s Basketball Final Medals

Gold Medal:	USA
Silver Medal:	France
Bronze Medal:	Canada

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