Lionel Messi: Best Bets Copa America Final
Ruben Chavez
Host · Writer
Argentina vs. Colombia at 8:00 p.m. ET
The main event is finally here. It is the Copa America finals, and the defending champions, Argentina, will be lining up against Colombia. La Albiceleste started on the back foot against Canada but won comfortably with a 2-0 scoreline. Lionel Messi came to play against the Canadians, scoring his first goal of the tournament.
Colombia has not conceded a goal in the knockout round and was impressive in its win against Uruguay despite being down to ten men. History is on Argentina’s side in this matchup. They’ve only lost once in their last 12 meetings and have 15 Copa America titles to Colombia’s one.
Finals in the Copa America tend to be low-scoring affairs. Three of the last four have featured less than two goals, two of which ended up going to a penalty shootout. In matches like that, all it can take is one moment of magic to make the difference.
There may not be anyone with more capability for magic than Messi, so here are some bets to consider before the big game.
Lionel Messi to have four or more shots (-140)
Messi is coming off a game in which he registered four shots. It also feels like we have not seen the best he can muster. There is no future game in the tournament that he will have to save himself for, so Messi can let loose. He is sure to try his hand from a distance, both in the flow of the game and from free kicks. Angel Di Maria and Julian Alvarez will also open space for him with their runs, occupying Colombia’s back line.
Lionel Messi to have two or more shots on Target (-130)
As discussed, Copa America finals tend to be low-scoring and cagey. Colombia will be an underdog heading into this match, and their approach to the game could be very informative. Uruguay had more than a few chances against Los Cafeteros but did not take them and failed to hit the target. Messi and Argentina will not be as wasteful. Even if the game does not feature a ton of goals, there will be many chances, and Messi will test the keeper more than a few times.
Lionel Messi to Score or Assist (+105)
Messi has three goals and three assists in 11 matches against Colombia. He scored two goals in the most recent final and was very influential. There is every reason to believe he will find his way onto the score sheet. He will have his fair share of chances and will also create them. So far, he has 13 key passes in the tournament that have led directly to a shot. According to his xAG, he should be hovering around three assists, and Argentina has been clinical enough to believe that he will find his way onto the score sheet.
Parlay: Lionel Messi to have four or more shots, Lionel Messi to Score or Assist, two or more shots on target +275
Everything about this game suggests a reasonably low-scoring affair. Of the last five matches between the teams, only one has featured more than two goals. Instead, it’s safer to project a game where both teams will have to carve out their best look, and who better to do that than Messi? We’re banking on Messi showing up on the biggest stage and causing a headache for the opposing team, both of which seem likely.
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