MLS Top Goalscorer Betting Trends: Messi Making Messi Moves

The race for the 2025 MLS Golden Boot is heating up as we head into the second half of the season. Lionel Messi remains the headline name, but it’s Sam Surridge who leads the league with 16 goals for Nashville SC, while Tai Baribo and Kevin Denkey are surging into the conversation. Bettors are piling into the top goalscorer market on BetMGM, and the line moves, ticket share, handle percentages, and biggest liabilities all tell the story of where the smart — and public — money is going.

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Line Movement: Big Shifts at the Top

(Open to Now)

• Lionel Messi +250, +175
• Sam Surridge +6600 to +188
• Kevin Denkey +2500, +1000
• Cristian Arango +2500 to +2000

The top of the MLS goalscorer odds board has been shaken up since lines opened. Lionel Messi, who sits second in the Golden Boot chase with 14 goals for Inter Miami CF, has shortened from +250 to +175 as he keeps scoring at an elite clip. Meanwhile, Sam Surridge has made the biggest move — from a massive +6600 to just +188 — after exploding for an MLS-best 16 goals with Nashville SC. Kevin Denkey (12 goals, FC Cincinnati) has dropped from +2500 to +1000, showing real sharp interest. Cristian Arango, with five goals for the San Jose Earthquakes, also tightened slightly from +2500 to +2000. The shifting odds reflect the volatility of the race as new names enter the contention.

Highest Ticket%: Denkey and Latte Lath Grab the Public

• Kevin Denkey 17.8%
• Emmanuel Latte Lath 10.3%
• Tai Baribo 9.6%

When it comes to total tickets, Kevin Denkey is the public’s favorite sleeper. He’s snagged 17.8% of all top goalscorer tickets, leading the field. Emmanuel Latte Lath of Atlanta United FC, despite sitting on just five goals, has surprisingly drawn 10.3% of bets. Tai Baribo, third in total goals with 13 for the Philadelphia Union, is also attracting a steady volume, with 9.6% of tickets. This spread shows that while Messi and Surridge are obvious picks, bettors are backing high-value long shots to make a late-season push up the scoring charts.

Highest Handle%: Big Money Chasing Latte Lath

• Emmanuel Latte Lath 26.4%
• Kevin Denkey 11.4%
• Wilfried Zaha 10.4%

The biggest bet sizes are backing Emmanuel Latte Lath. He leads the handle at a hefty 26.4% of all dollars wagered, proving some big bets expect him to surge up the goals list. Kevin Denkey is next at 11.4% — matching his popularity among casual bettors, too. Wilfried Zaha, with five goals for Charlotte FC, rounds out the top three handle leaders at 10.4%. Despite modest goal totals, Latte Lath and Zaha are drawing large wagers, highlighting bettors’ belief they could heat up when it matters most.

Biggest Liabilities: Books Sweating Denkey, Latte Lath, Zaha

• Kevin Denkey
• Emmanuel Latte Lath
• Wilfried Zaha

With massive handle and tickets behind them, Kevin Denkey, Emmanuel Latte Lath, and Wilfried Zaha are the sportsbooks’ biggest liabilities in the MLS top goalscorer market. If any of these three catch fire down the stretch, the payouts could be painful for the books. Their odds still offer value compared to front-runners Messi and Surridge, which is exactly what has fueled this sharp and public support. All eyes will be on whether one of these sleeper picks can actually dethrone the stars at the top.

BetMGM data is based on straight bets.