NCAAF · 1 year ago

5 Reasons Why Michigan Is Poised for College Football Glory

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

The Wolverines Won't Beat Themselves
Despite almost giving the Rose Bowl away with self-inflicted special teams mistakes, Michigan doesn’t beat itself (and has elite special teams). The Wolverines excel in turnover margin, ranking second (+16) with only eight turnovers this season, compared to Washington's 18 (63rd). Additionally, Michigan commits the fewest penalties per game nationally (2.9), while Washington ranks as one of the most penalized teams (127th). The likelihood of self-sabotage on Monday night seems higher for the Pac-12 champions. If the Wolverines clean up their punt returns, they can deliver a more disciplined performance.
Dominance in the Trenches
No team has the quality depth the Wolverines have on their defensive front. They go five deep with defensive tackles who have knotted at least 24 tackles this season. With Kris Jenkins, Mason Graham, and Kenneth Grant, they have three interior linemen who can take over a game. Michigan also presents a unique challenge with edge pressure, thanks to Jaylen Harrell (team-high 6.5 sacks), Josaiah Stewart (two TFLs against Alabama), Braiden McGregor (two sacks against Alabama), and Derrick Moore (one sack against Alabama). The quartet has amassed 21.5 sacks this season and is always fresh. Facing Alabama's formidable pass rush (multiple projected first-rounders) in the semifinals, the Wolverines' offensive line arguably delivered their finest performance, even without top lineman Zak Zinter. According to PFF, center Drake Nugent stood out, allowing no pressures in 28 pass-blocking snaps. Karsen Barnhart has adapted well to playing guard, looking more at home than at tackle. His right tackle replacement, Trente Jones, has excelled with just one pressure and no sacks in 118 pass-blocking snaps, ranking first in pass-blocking efficiency among tackles with over 100 snaps, per PFF.
Run Baby, Run
Michigan typically excels in early down efficiency, ranking ninth in early down EPA. Blake Corum's crucial jump cut in the Rose Bowl's game-winning touchdown demonstrates his clutch ability. Corum has a knack for timely plays, evidenced by significant touchdowns against Penn State and Ohio State and a decisive overtime rush in the Rose Bowl. Expect a standout performance from Corum in his final game wearing Maize & Blue. Watch Donovan Edwards, who could make explosive runs, particularly in two-back formations alongside Kalel Mullings. Michigan's running strategy, known for loading the box with extra blockers, including multiple tight ends or an additional lineman, will succeed against Washington. Their power and counter runs are set to challenge Washington's defense, which ranks 125th in rushing success rate and 65th in EPA per rush. Washington's vulnerability was exposed in the Sugar Bowl, allowing over 6.5 yards per carry to CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue, though with just nine carries each. Michigan will capitalize on the Huskies' weakness. Utilizing QB J.J. McCarthy's running abilities would also be beneficial, as evidenced by his performance against Alabama. With Washington allowing Quinn Ewers a career-high in rushing yards, McCarthy's mobility and speed could be decisive in exploiting their defense.
J.J. McCarthy is Really Good
The Wolverines' passing offense, often overlooked due to limited total numbers, is very efficient. They ranked second in EPA/pass and sixth in passing success rate, with Sherrone Moore's offense tenth in points per drive. J.J. McCarthy might be better than you think. According to PFF, McCarthy earned a 92.5 passing grade, showcasing his proficiency with ten touchdowns and only one interception, and a remarkable 128.9 passer rating on throws over 20+ yards this season. Awe-inspiring is his performance on third downs with seven or more yards to go (when opposing teams know he’s passing), where he completed 75% of his passes (33 of 44) for 526 yards, resulting in 26 first downs or touchdowns. In the Rose Bowl against Alabama, facing pressure ten times, McCarthy managed to complete six passes for 106 yards and a touchdown, achieving a 168.4 passer efficiency rating for the game — the highest Alabama's second-ranked coverage defense allowed all season, including against Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels. Furthermore, McCarthy's QBR surpasses Michael Penix Jr.’s (ranking third with 89.5 compared to sixth at 85.7). Michigan's offense is balanced and capable of effective and efficient passing when needed.
The Pass D is Elite
Jesse Minter's defensive squad ranks second in success rate against the pass and third in EPA per pass. While the Wolverines haven't encountered an offense like Washington's (this season), the Huskies have yet to face a defense of Michigan's caliber. Michigan’s defense excelled in the Rose Bowl, facing 35 dropbacks and allowing only 103 yards. They limited Jalen Milroe to an average of 5.0 yards per pass and Jermaine Burton to 5.4 yards per catch, which is notable given their season averages of 10.0 YPA and 20.5 YPC, respectively. Moreover, this defense has been tailored to counter Ohio State's potent offense, featuring stars like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, and they have successfully bested C.J. Stroud. CB Will Johnson might be college football's best cover corner. He was targeted only twice in 33 coverage snaps during the Rose Bowl without allowing any catches. Opposing QBs posted a 35.4 passer rating when targeting No. 2. Alongside him, elite slot corner Mike Sainristil and versatile safety Rod Moore solidify Michigan's secondary, rated as the top coverage defense by PFF.
The Wolverines Won't Beat Themselves
Despite almost giving the Rose Bowl away with self-inflicted special teams mistakes, Michigan doesn’t beat itself (and has elite special teams). The Wolverines excel in turnover margin, ranking second (+16) with only eight turnovers this season, compared to Washington's 18 (63rd). Additionally, Michigan commits the fewest penalties per game nationally (2.9), while Washington ranks as one of the most penalized teams (127th). The likelihood of self-sabotage on Monday night seems higher for the Pac-12 champions. If the Wolverines clean up their punt returns, they can deliver a more disciplined performance.
Dominance in the Trenches
No team has the quality depth the Wolverines have on their defensive front. They go five deep with defensive tackles who have knotted at least 24 tackles this season. With Kris Jenkins, Mason Graham, and Kenneth Grant, they have three interior linemen who can take over a game. Michigan also presents a unique challenge with edge pressure, thanks to Jaylen Harrell (team-high 6.5 sacks), Josaiah Stewart (two TFLs against Alabama), Braiden McGregor (two sacks against Alabama), and Derrick Moore (one sack against Alabama). The quartet has amassed 21.5 sacks this season and is always fresh. Facing Alabama's formidable pass rush (multiple projected first-rounders) in the semifinals, the Wolverines' offensive line arguably delivered their finest performance, even without top lineman Zak Zinter. According to PFF, center Drake Nugent stood out, allowing no pressures in 28 pass-blocking snaps. Karsen Barnhart has adapted well to playing guard, looking more at home than at tackle. His right tackle replacement, Trente Jones, has excelled with just one pressure and no sacks in 118 pass-blocking snaps, ranking first in pass-blocking efficiency among tackles with over 100 snaps, per PFF.

5 Reasons Why Michigan Is Poised for College Football Glory

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