Iowa Hawkeyes Preview, Predictions & Season Win Total Pick

The 2022 Iowa Hawkeyes were among the strangest teams in modern college football history. They played three games in which neither side scored more than ten points. A year ago, they were No. 2 in the country in defense (13.3 PPG and 270.8 YPG). However, they were the most offensively challenged good team… maybe, ever. The Hawkeyes averaged 17.7 points per game with just 15.8 PPG coming from their offense, which scored 17 touchdowns compared to six by the defense.

More of the same is expected in 2023, so buckle up.

Iowa Hawkeyes Preview

2022 Record: 8-5 (5-4); Big Ten Finish: 2nd in B1G West (tied)

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: No. 25 | SP+: No. 29

Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz: 186-115 (115-83) | 25th Season | Overall: 198-136

Offensive Coordinator: Brian Ferentz (7th Season, 12th w/ Iowa)

Defensive Coordinator: Phil Parker (12th Season, 25th w/ Iowa)

Iowa Hawkeyes Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +1500 | CFB Playoff Odds: NA

B1G Championship Odds: +1200 | B1G West Odds: +250

Win 10+ Games: NA | Undefeated Regular Season: +2300

Regular Season Wins: OVER 8.5 -110 | UNDER 8.5 -110

Big Ten Previews: Indiana | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State | Penn State | Rutgers | Wisconsin 

Iowa Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

The defense and special teams should be excellent again. They return six starters on D, which doesn’t include defensive end Deontae Craig (6.5 sacks as a backup in 2022), linebacker Nick Jackson (two-time All ACC second team with Virginia), or cornerback Jermari Harris, who was listed as a starter in 2022 before suffering a season-ending injury. Harris joins a secondary that, despite losing two starters to the NFL, is ranked fifth in college football by PFF. Phil Parker’s defense has finished no worse than sixth in SP+ over the past four seasons. As for special teams, true sophomore Drew Stevens (16 of 18) has a booming leg, All-B1G CB Cooper DeJean averaged 16.5 yards on punt returns when he took over, and Tory Taylor (“Punting is Winning” T-shirts) is back.

Hawkeyes Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

Punting is winning. It’s funny because it’s true… at Iowa. Their 251.5 yards per game was the second-worst in college football, and they were 118th in SP+ on offense. Iowa hasn’t cracked the SP+ top 50 since 2011 and hasn’t ranked higher than 86th over the past four seasons. Yet, offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz has managed to keep his job. He must know people in high places. They lost two games (10-7 at Iowa State and 9-6 at Illinois) in which they held the opponent to ten points or less. They also won one where they scored fewer than ten points (7-3 vs. South Dakota State)! You’d think they can’t be worse, but how much better will the Iowa offense be in 2023 without a new coordinator calling the shots?

Breakout Player: S Xavier Nwankpa, Sophomore

It’s not often the Hawkeyes land a five-star recruit (247Sports) which they did when Iowa native Xavier Nwankpa picked the hometown Hawkeyes over Ohio State. The true sophomore is their highest-rated player since A.J. Epenesa in 2017. Nwankpa made his first start in Iowa’s bowl win over Kentucky, and all he did was record eight tackles (seven solo) and return an interception 52 yards for a touchdown. An elite athlete, the safety has gotten stronger since he arrived in Iowa City. After a season of learning behind Kaevon Merriweather, big things are expected for the All-Big Ten talent.

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X-Factor: The Offensive Line

I could easily go with the passing game transfers: QB Cade McNamara (Michigan), TE Erick All (Michigan), and WR Kaleb Brown (Ohio State). But the offensive line’s development is just as crucial as those additions, which has always been critical to Iowa’s best teams. All the focus on the QB play and OC hasn’t been misplaced, but it has allowed the O-line issues to get overlooked. They weren’t great last season. However, with four starters back, and two transfers, there’s reason for optimism. This group was better in the second half of 2022 after three sophomores (one who switched from defense) and a freshman were thrown into the fire.
Moreover, there’s competition. Even Connor Colby, considered by many to be their best lineman, is fighting to keep his starting job. And there’s talent, with five former four-star recruits entrenched in the two-deep. If this group can start opening running holes to set up the play action for McNamara, watch out!

Iowa Schedule Analysis

The schedule is easier than a year ago, one of the most significant shifts from last season to 2023. They play at Penn State (+10.5), which is tough, but in 2022 both Michigan and Ohio State were on the schedule, two playoff teams. The Hawkeyes also visit Madison to face Wisconsin. The good news is that only four true road games are on the schedule (they play Northwestern in Wrigley Field). With Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois all coming to Kinnick Stadium, I project Iowa to be favored in ten games this season.

Iowa Prediction: OVER/UNDER 8 Wins

The number at DraftKings is eight, and I don’t see how they win fewer than eight games, not with their schedule, defense, and improved offense. That’s right, I said it. This offense will be much better. McNamara (15 TDs-6 INTs with a 64.2 completion percentage in 2021) is an above-average quarterback, a monumental improvement from last season (QBs combined for 7-7-55%). The offensive line will be their best in three or four years, and Kaleb Johnson (779 yards, 6 TDs, 5.2 YPC as a true freshman) leads an improved running game. This is an excellent team. I love the OVER and wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawkeyes win the B1G West, another wager to consider when placing your futures.

Iowa Preseason Pick

OVER 8 (-165 @ Draft Kings)

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