The Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves are all set to kick off their series in what promises to be a captivating NL East clash. It’s not often you see the Braves (-109) listed as home underdogs, but that’s exactly the case in this game, with Aaron Nola taking the mound for the Phillies (-110).

Despite not having many innings over the past 30 days, taking the season as a whole reveals some interesting stats for Atlanta’s pitcher. Out of the 70 batters he’s faced, Dylan Dodd, a left-handed pitcher, has a .555 wOBA against left-handed batters, although this stat is based on just 11 batters. He’s fared better against right-handed batters, with a .391 wOBA across 59 of them.

Recently, the Phillies looked poised for a losing streak against the Arizona Diamondbacks. But a vital two-run homer in the ninth inning from Trea Turner, and a walk-off in the bottom of the 10th from Alec Bohm, could have given the team a much-needed momentum boost.

In contrast, the Braves, traditionally strong, haven’t been as formidable as usual, with only Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Sean Murphy performing well against right-handed pitchers in the last 30 days. Notably, several key hitters are underperforming, with Austin Riley at a .283 wOBA, Eddie Rosario at .261, and Ozzie Albies at .239. Last year’s standout player, Michael Harris, is also struggling with a meager .201 wOBA.

Given these circumstances, it makes sense for the Braves to be the underdogs despite being at home. A struggling lineup coupled with a less-than-stellar pitcher is likely responsible for the pricing.

Aaron Nola, on the other hand, has had an interesting season. He’s managed to avoid any significant blowouts, with his worst performance coming against Texas in the opener, where he gave up five earned runs. However, he hasn’t surrendered more than four in any game following that. His standout performance came against Houston in late April, where he pitched eight innings, allowing just one earned run. He’ll be aiming to replicate that form against the Atlanta lineup in this game.