Playing GM: Five Moves To Complete the Baltimore Orioles Roster for 2026

Baltimore Orioles Go All-In: Baltimore’s 2026 Offseason Is a Betting Market Shift

The Orioles didn’t just say they were going to add an impact bat this winter — they actually did it.

After missing on Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia Phillies), president of baseball operations Mike Elias pivoted aggressively, landing Pete Alonso on a five-year, $155 million deal. It’s the second-largest contract in franchise history, but by average annual value, it’s the biggest swing the Orioles have ever taken.

Five years. $31 million per season.

But the number that matters most to bettors is 264 — Alonso’s career home runs through seven MLB seasons.

Baltimore didn’t just add power. They changed how the market has to price them.

Pete Alonso Changes the Orioles’ Offensive Ceiling — and Their Futures Profile

Alonso turns 31 this winter and is already more than halfway to 500 career homers. That level of bankable power immediately upgrades an offense that finished 24th in runs scored last season.

From a betting perspective, this move matters in three places:

Season win totals
Division odds
Game-to-game totals and team props

The Orioles were no longer priced like a fringe contender once Alonso signed — and that adjustment happened fast.

This is arguably a bigger free-agent splash than Chris Davis’ 2016 deal, simply because Alonso arrives as a finished product rather than a retained star. Baltimore finally paid market value for elite production, and sportsbooks responded accordingly.

Taylor Ward Trade Signals a Win-Now Mindset

Before Alonso, Elias addressed another clear need by acquiring Taylor Ward, sacrificing long-term upside in Grayson Rodriguez (Los Angeles Angels)to raise the immediate floor of the lineup.

Ward has been an above-average hitter every season since 2022 and punishes left-handed pitching — a weakness Baltimore struggled to cover. Whether the Orioles “overpaid” in prospect value is debatable, but from a betting lens, this move screams urgency.

This is no longer a team building for 2027.

They’re trying to cash tickets now.

Ryan Helsley and Andrew Kittredge Stabilize a Volatile Bullpen

Baltimore also invested heavily on the run-prevention side, signing Ryan Helsley to a two-year, $28 million deal.

Yes, 2025 was rough after the trade deadline. But from 2022–24, Helsley was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball:

1.83 ERA
225 strikeouts
Just 10 home runs allowed across 152 games

If Helsley rebounds — and there’s real evidence pointing toward a bounce-back — he softens the blow of Félix Bautista’s absence for much of the season.

Reacquiring Andrew Kittredge adds even more leverage depth. Across the last five seasons, only eight relievers with similar workloads have posted better ERA and xERA marks.

For bettors, bullpen depth directly affects:

Late-game spreads
Live betting volatility
Overs on competitive games

Baltimore quietly moved from a liability bullpen to a potential strength.

What the Orioles Still Need — and How It Impacts Betting Markets

Despite all that progress, a 75-win season doesn’t disappear overnight.

On the Just Baseball Show, Peter Appel and Aram Leighton laid out five more moves to finish the offseason — and after the Shane Baz trade, those ideas deserve a betting-driven re-evaluation.

1. Freddy Peralta (Milwaukee Brewers) Is the Missing Ace — and the Biggest Betting Lever

Baltimore still lacks a true rotation anchor.

Baz has upside. Trevor Rogers flashed in 2025. Kyle Bradish has talent — and injury risk.

What they don’t have is certainty.

That’s where Peralta comes in.

Since 2021:

738.1 innings
3.30 ERA
3.28 xERA
30+ starts in each of the last three seasons

The list of pitchers with more innings and better ERA/xERA in that span:

Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies)
Corbin Burnes (Arizona Diamondbacks)

That’s it.

From a betting standpoint, Peralta is the rotation equivalent of Alonso. He would:

Stabilize series prices
Improve playoff odds immediately
Reduce reliance on “best-case scenario” projections

If Baltimore wants to be priced like a contender instead of a hopeful, this is the move.

2. Nick Martinez Is Rotation Insurance Bettors Should Care About

Even after adding Baz, Nick Martinez still makes sense.

He’s one of the most flexible arms in baseball:

4.10 ERA as a starter since 2022
2.94 ERA as a reliever
Zero IL stints in three seasons

Martinez isn’t flashy, but he’s exactly the type of pitcher contenders need when markets tighten late in the season. Durability has betting value, and Baltimore learned that lesson the hard way in 2025.

3. Pete Fairbanks Would Push This Bullpen Over the Top

This is the most aggressive — and least certain — addition.

Fairbanks is the only true closer left on the market with:

Sub-3.00 ERA over five years
88 career saves
Elite strikeout rates

If Baltimore signs him, they’d have multiple late-inning weapons who can actually shorten games — a massive edge in postseason-style matchups and tight AL East contests.

4. Sean Newcomb Solves the Lefty Problem Cheaply

Baltimore is light on left-handed pitching, especially in relief.

Newcomb quietly posted:

2.73 ERA
1.65 WPA
92.1 innings in 2025

He’s not dominant, but he’s functional — and functional lefties matter when pricing matchups against left-heavy lineups.

5. LaMonte Wade Jr. Is Sneaky Depth With Real Upside

The Orioles don’t need another bat.

But Wade Jr. fits perfectly as low-risk depth:

.352 OBP from 2021–25
Above-average wRC+ in three of four seasons before 2025
Strong plate discipline even during a down year

This is the kind of signing that doesn’t move futures odds — but absolutely matters over 162 games.

Betting Bottom Line: Baltimore Is No Longer a Longshot

The Orioles didn’t just add names. They changed their risk profile.

With Alonso anchoring the lineup and real bullpen reinforcements in place, Baltimore is now one frontline starter away from being priced like a legitimate AL contender rather than a rebuilding team with upside.

If Elias finishes the job, don’t expect betting markets to give the Orioles much value come Opening Day.

The window is open — and sportsbooks know it.

You can read all about what’s going on in Major League Baseball at SportsGrid.com.