Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Mets Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays lock horns with the New York Mets at Citi Field in the three-game series rubber match. Surprisingly, it’s close to a pick ’em today, with the Mets and -100 and Tampa at -119.  As the Mets hold the home-field advantage, the total is set at 9.5.

The Rays’ Taj Bradley has had a spectacular short run, despite not having many innings under his belt. His 3.37 xFIP and close to 38% K rate show his potential on the mound. What’s more, his splits against lefties – a .173 weighted on-base percentage and ISO of zero – are sensational. Even right-handed batters have a relatively modest .281 weighted on-base percentage against him, although the ISO power number is slightly higher.

Bradley’s strength is the Mets’ weakness: their lineup is expected to be filled with left-handed batters. Attacking the Rays’ rookie with a lefty-heavy lineup may not be the best strategy.

On the other side, the Mets’ Tyler Megill hasn’t had the best 30 days. His xFIP is over six, his strikeouts are low, and his walks are high. Megill, a right-handed pitcher, has a staggering .469 weighted on-base percentage and ISO of .268 against the 50 right-handed batters he has faced.

Despite an unfortunate loss in their last game, the Rays still offer great value, especially with Bradley on the mound. Tampa, the highest-scoring team in Major League Baseball, should capitalize on their offensive prowess against a struggling Megill. Today, the better pitcher, the better lineup, and the better team are all on Tampa Bay’s side.

Even almost 45 games into the season, the Rays have still scored the most runs and allowed the fewest in MLB. Their performance is undeniably impressive, making them a compelling choice for today’s game.