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MLB · 3 weeks ago

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Mets Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview

Sportsgrid-Staff

Rays @ Mets – First Pitch: 1:10 p.m.

Expected Forecast: Few Clouds, 60°
 

The Tampa Bay Rays lock horns with the New York Mets at Citi Field in the three-game series rubber match. Surprisingly, it’s close to a pick ’em today, with the Mets and -100 and Tampa at -119.  As the Mets hold the home-field advantage, the total is set at 9.5.

The Rays’ Taj Bradley has had a spectacular short run, despite not having many innings under his belt. His 3.37 xFIP and close to 38% K rate show his potential on the mound. What’s more, his splits against lefties – a .173 weighted on-base percentage and ISO of zero – are sensational. Even right-handed batters have a relatively modest .281 weighted on-base percentage against him, although the ISO power number is slightly higher.

Bradley’s strength is the Mets’ weakness: their lineup is expected to be filled with left-handed batters. Attacking the Rays’ rookie with a lefty-heavy lineup may not be the best strategy.

On the other side, the Mets’ Tyler Megill hasn’t had the best 30 days. His xFIP is over six, his strikeouts are low, and his walks are high. Megill, a right-handed pitcher, has a staggering .469 weighted on-base percentage and ISO of .268 against the 50 right-handed batters he has faced.

Despite an unfortunate loss in their last game, the Rays still offer great value, especially with Bradley on the mound. Tampa, the highest-scoring team in Major League Baseball, should capitalize on their offensive prowess against a struggling Megill. Today, the better pitcher, the better lineup, and the better team are all on Tampa Bay’s side.

Even almost 45 games into the season, the Rays have still scored the most runs and allowed the fewest in MLB. Their performance is undeniably impressive, making them a compelling choice for today’s game.

 

Spread, Total, Moneyline, and Odds:

  Spread Total Moneyline  
 Rays -1.5  +156  O 8.5  -115  -106  Open
+138  9.5  -110  -119  Current
 Mets +1.5   -185  U 8.5  -105  -113  Open
 -165  9.5   -110  -100  Current

Projected Lineups:

Rays

Starting Pitcher: Taj Bradley: 3-0, 3.52 ERA, 13.50 K/9

1. RF  Josh Lowe   .300, 9 HR, 29 RBI
2. LF  Randy Arozarena   .310, 10 HR, 36 RBI
3. DH  Harold Ramírez   .330, 6 HR, 18 RBI
4. 2B  Brandon Lowe   .208, 8 HR, 24 RBI
5. 3B  Isaac Paredes   .293, 6 HR, 29 RBI
6. SS  Taylor Walls   .277, 7 HR, 18 RBI
7. 1B  Luke Raley   .258, 8 HR, 17 RBI
8. C  Christian Bethancourt   .228, 6 HR, 14 RBI
9. CF  Manuel Margot   .242, 2 HR, 10 RBI

 

Mets

Starting Pitcher: Tylor Megill: 4-2, 4.02 ERA, 6.92 K/9

1. CF  Brandon Nimmo   .299, 3 HR, 18 RBI
2. SS  Francisco Lindor   .229, 6 HR, 31 RBI
3. 2B  Jeff McNeil   .277, 2 HR, 14 RBI
4. 1B  Pete Alonso   .232, 15 HR, 36 RBI
5. 3B  Brett Baty   .241, 3 HR, 8 RBI
6. RF  Starling Marte   .238, 1 HR, 10 RBI
7. DH  Daniel Vogelbach   .247, 2 HR, 13 RBI
8. LF  Mark Canha   .227, 3 HR, 12 RBI
9. C  Francisco Alvarez   .218, 4 HR, 9 RBI

Betting Insights:

Rays

  • The over hit in 5 of the Tampa Bay Rays last 5 games on the road in 2023
  • The Tampa Bay Rays are 11-6 (.647) on the road as a favorite in 2023

Mets

  • The over hit in 3 of the New York Mets last 5 games at home in 2023

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