2025 US Open 1st Round Leader Trends: Scheffler, Bradley & Hatton Draw Heat
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
All Eyes on Round 1 at Oakmont
The opening round of a major is where sharp bettors look for value, and the 2025 U.S. Open First Round Leader (FRL) market is no exception. With Oakmont Country Club set to demand precision from tee to green, players with fast starts and strong approach play have risen to the top of the oddsboards and bettors’ slips. According to BetMGM, Scottie Scheffler, Keegan Bradley, and longshot Chris Gotterup have drawn major attention—each ranking as a top liability heading into Thursday’s opening round.
| Golfer | Ticket % | Handle % | Biggest Liability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 10.6% | 15.3% | 1 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 6.5% | 7.6% | – |
| Shane Lowry | 4.8% | 3.3% | – |
| Keegan Bradley | 2.3% | 10.0% | 3 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 1.1% | 9.6% | – |
| Chris Gotterup | 4.6% | 2.0% | 2 |
Scheffler’s Consistency Fuels First Round Hype
It’s no surprise Scottie Scheffler (+1100) is once again leading the way in a betting market. The World No. 1 is dominating in form and stats—six opening rounds of 68 or better this year, including a 61 at the Byron Nelson, have proven his early scoring ability. His No. 1 ranking in strokes gained off the tee (0.776), elite greens-in-regulation rate (70.25%), and 11th place in total driving all point to a player poised to hit Oakmont hard from the opening tee. Bettors agree—15.3% of handle and 10.6% of tickets make Scheffler both the most popular and the biggest FRL liability for BetMGM.
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DeChambeau’s Power and Form Position Him for Fast Start
If recent form is any indicator, Bryson DeChambeau (+1600) is primed to go low early. The two-time (2020, 2024) and defending U.S. Open champion is playing some of his sharpest golf in years, coming off a T2 at the PGA Championship and riding a streak of four straight top-five finishes worldwide. That includes a win at LIV Golf Korea in early May, solidifying his spot as No. 2 in the LIV standings. Bettors haven’t overlooked the trend—DeChambeau owns 6.5% of tickets and 7.6% of the handle in the FRL market at BetMGM. His ability to overpower a course early, paired with experience on major championship setups, makes him a legitimate Round 1 threat.
Lowry’s Iron Precision and Scoring Make Him a FRL Sleeper
Shane Lowry (+4000) is quietly assembling one of the most consistent seasons of his career—and his opening round scores are speaking for themselves. The Irishman has made 12 of 14 cuts, posted five rounds of 66 or better to start tournaments, including three 64s, and ranks first on Tour in proximity to the hole (33’7"). Add in a second-place ranking in Strokes Gained: Approach to Green (1.020) and you get a player dialed in with the irons. Lowry’s U.S. Open pedigree includes a T2 finish at Oakmont in 2016, where he opened with a 68. With 4.8% of the tickets and 3.3% of the handle, Lowry is a mid-tier FRL pick with the ball-striking profile to start hot on a demanding layout like Oakmont.
Hatton’s Major Form and Consistency Boost His 1st Round Value
Tyrrell Hatton (+5500) may not be the first name thrown around in FRL conversations, but he’s proving to be a sharp pick ahead of Thursday’s opening round. The Englishman has quietly put together a strong 2025 campaign, making the cut in both his PGA Tour appearances—where he opened with rounds of 69 at the Masters and 68 at the PGA Championship. In LIV competition, Hatton has posted four top-15 finishes in eight events, showing solid consistency. His backers are betting on just that, with Hatton pulling in 9.6% of the handle, making him one of the top liability candidates in the FRL market despite holding just 1.1% of tickets. That disparity suggests sharp action—and a potential Day 1 surprise.
Bradley’s Form and Driving Stats Draw Sharp Handle
Keegan Bradley (+6600) may be flying under the radar, but sharp bettors have noticed. With just one missed cut in 13 starts, four top-10 finishes, and opening rounds of 67 or better in three of his last four, he’s found his groove. A 64 at the Truist Championship showed his ceiling, and his 19th-ranked total driving stat fits the Oakmont profile. Despite a modest 2.3% ticket share, Bradley commands 10.0% of the handle, making him a sneaky sharp pick and a major FRL liability for sportsbooks.
Gotterup’s Momentum Makes Him a Sleeper Threat
When you’re hitting your stride, odds don’t matter. Chris Gotterup is proving that, with a betting surge based on pure performance. The 24-year-old has shot six straight opening rounds of 69 or better, including a 63 and 65 in recent weeks. Despite missing the cut in half his 18 starts in 2025, Gotterup is red-hot and drawing interest at +15000—a number juicy enough to land him as one of BetMGM’s top FRL liabilities. With 4.6% of tickets and a growing buzz among longshot backers, he could be the first-round surprise at Oakmont.
High Risk, High Reward Market Favors Aggressors
In the volatile FRL market, upside and momentum matter more than resume—and players like Scheffler, Bradley, and Gotterup have all three. Scheffler leads the betting, Bradley draws sharp money, and Gotterup brings the boom-or-bust potential sportsbooks fear. If Round 1 turns into a shootout, these three are positioned to break the course—and the books—early.
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