2025 US Open Best Bets: PGA Picks, Predictions and Outlook

When it comes to hosting the U.S. Open, Oakmont Country Club stands alone as one of the most punishing tracks in golf history. With a par of 70 and a brutal 7,372-yard setup, Oakmont doesn’t just test a player’s talent—it challenges their discipline, accuracy, and mental toughness. In 2007, the winning score was +5 at Oakmont, and the field averaged over 5-over-par across the week—the highest U.S. Open scoring average this century.

This isn’t a birdie fest. Players who can keep it in the fairway, manage thick rough, and avoid the tough-to-read greens will rise to the top. That makes betting the 2025 U.S. Open less about current form and more about fit—exactly where we’re looking.

From Xander Schauffele’s U.S. Open consistency, to Patrick Cantlay’s accuracy-driven profile, and Justin Thomas’ cut risk, here are three sharp bets to lock in before Thursday’s opening round in Pennsylvania.

Xander Schauffele Top 5 Finish (Including Ties) +360

Is Xander Schauffele finally ready to bust out of his “slow start" as we cruise past the halfway point of the 2025 season? I’m betting he is. 

Coming into the season two months late while recovering from an acute intercostal strain, Schauffele hasn’t quite looked like himself for most of the year, posting just one top-10 finish. That top 10 came at the Masters following one of Schauffele’s nine of nine made cuts this season. If there’s one thing we know for sure, Xander will be around on Sunday. His streak of making 65 straight cuts is the longest since Tiger Woods’ wild run of 142 in a row.

While not known for his driving accuracy, Schauffele can bomb them, averaging almost 309 yards per drive this year. With that kind of power, the 31-year-old has consistently set himself up for a look at the flag. Schauffele’s strokes gained: approach the green number of 0.681 ranks seventh on the PGA Tour and keeps him on regular birdie watch.  

In his career, the San Diego State alum has always been a contender at the US Open. Schauffele has finished outside the top 10 just once in eight cracks at the title, with six of those attempts coming at T-7 or better.  

While picking Schauffele to win at +2200, or win W/O Scottie Scheffler at +1600, is tempting, going T-5 gives us more wiggle room. You may also want to consider playing this one E/W for a bigger payout should the Olympic gold medalist pull off the win at Oakmont. 

Patrick Cantlay Top 10 Finish (Including Ties) +280

Despite being an eight-time PGA Tour winner, Patrick Cantlay has yet to raise the trophy of a Major. While I think he has great value at +4500 to conquer Oakmont for his first, a top 10 finish is the wiser play.

Cantlay has performed well at the US Open, finishing in the top 15 in his past four appearances, which includes a T-3 showing last year. While Cantlay has never played this course, he has some skills that should fare well here. One of the most treacherous parts of Oakmont is the rough. The thickest grass will begin directly off the fairway, rather than a gradual cut. An unforgiving mix of Kentucky bluegrass, ryegrass, and poa annua will punish golfers who miss the mark.

Good thing for Cantlay, he ranks 37th with 0.307 strokes gained off the tee. His driving distance (302.6) and driving accuracy (60.19%) are both above average, and his approach game can be lethal. Cantlay ranks third in greens in regulation percentage at 70.53%, often finding himself on the dance floor early.

Justin Thomas to Miss the Cut: +165

It’s been a tough-to-call season for Justin Thomas. JT has come up with six top-10 finishes this year but has also ended up outside of the top 30 in six events, including his most recent tournament, the Memorial, less than two weeks ago. At the Memorial, it looked like Thomas might have an early weekend after shooting +8 in his opening round. He just made it through on the number thanks to a few late birdies in round two. A week before that, Thomas missed the cut, competing against a much tougher field, closer to that of this week’s US Open. 

Not only is the Open one of the few events to allow LIV golfers to compete, strengthening the field, but it is also one of the toughest tournaments on the slate annually. This year at Oakmont, driving accuracy will be key, an area Thomas has struggled in this year. This year’s RBC Heritage winner ranks 121st with a 56.9% driving accuracy percentage. He’s also 94th in strokes gained off the tee, picking up just 0.062.

JT has missed the cut at the past two US Opens, which followed a middling T-37 finish in 2022. Erratic in his past few rounds over the past couple of weeks, to go along with a less-than-stellar showing over his career at the US Open, has me loving the +165 price tag here.

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