UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura Preview & Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A heavyweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 239 as No. 9 ranked Tai “Bam Bam" Tuivasa faces off against No. 10 Marcin “Tybur" Tybura.
- Date: Saturday, March 16, 2024 | Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Enterprise, Nevada, United States – UFC Apex | TV: ESPN+
Josi and the Pussycat
No. 13 ranked women’s bantamweight Josiane “Josi" Nunes takes on No. 14 Chelsea Chandler. Nunes is riding a nine-fight win streak, including six knockouts. Chandler is coming off an embarrassing loss to Norma Dumont but previously had a five-fight win streak.
Chandler is six inches taller but only has a one-inch reach advantage. Nunes easily has the power edge, averaging 1.29 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Chandler’s zero. Nunes (7.22) lands more than double Chandler’s (3.12) significant strike output per minute but absorbs 2.79 more. Chandler doesn’t average an overwhelming amount of takedowns per 15 minutes and could have difficulty holding Nunes down.
Nunes is favored at -144 and is a solid outright bet.
The Butcher and The Last Ninja
This welterweight bout features Bryan “The Butcher" Battle facing Ange “The Last Ninja" Loosa. Battle is 5-1 in six UFC fights, winning his last two by finish (1 KO/TKO, 1 Submission). Loosa lost his UFC debut against Mounir Lazzez but has since won twice.
Battle is three inches taller and has a three-inch reach advantage. He’ll enjoy the power edge, averaging 0.63 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Loosa’s zero. The Last Ninja hasn’t finished an opponent in eight years. Loosa lands 1.8 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 3.15 more. Loosa has a 100 percent takedown defense rate and averages 2.25 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Battle is the favorite, and Loosa’s odds aren’t tempting enough to take him. Take Battle outright at -178.
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Heavyweight Main Event
Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
- Odds to Win: Tuivasa -114 | Tybura -106
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -280 | Submission +470 | Decision +490
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +490 | No -800
A top-ten heavyweight bout features Tai “Bam Bam" Tuivasa and Marcin “Tybur" Tybura. Tybura looks to rebound off his loss to Tom Aspinall but had a two-fight win streak before that. Tuivasa has lost three straight but had a five-fight win streak previously.
Tybura is one inch taller and has a three-inch reach advantage. He should have the edge in every aspect of this fight except for one aspect: power. Tuivasa averages 1.24 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Tybura’s 0.07. Both fighters land significant strikes at a similar rate at 3.98 and 3.55 per minute. Still, Tuivasa absorbs 1.63 more. Tybura will have the wrestling advantage but doesn’t have much of a submission game. However, Tybura could lay and pray his way to an easy decision.
Tuivasa is surprisingly the favorite, so this is a straightforward wager on Tybura at -106.
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura Betting Card
- Nunes to win (-144)
- Battle to win (-178)
- Tybura to win (-106)
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