Arias entered the 2026 season as the No. 39 overall prospect on Just Baseball’s Top 100 list, in large part to his elite bat-to-ball skills. His zone contact rate of 93% was among the best in the Minor Leagues, and he at least showcased enough pop to fend off the “slap hitter” label.
It was that natural ability to hit that allowed Arias to climb three levels at 19 years old last year, closing out the season with a 10-game taste of Double-A. He returned to Portland as the youngest player in the Eastern League, but has immediately looked more mature at the plate, both physically and in his approach.
He has always controlled his big leg kick well enough to compete, but there were times when it looked like he could push out onto his front side prematurely. Arias added strength in the offseason, aiding his increase in bat speed and giving him a stronger, more controlled base as well.
The results through the first 20 games this season have been jaw-dropping. It only took Arias one month to match his 2025 home run total of eight, and every metric that matters is noticeably better. Arias’s average bat speed is up two MPH, he has doubled his average launch angle, increased his Hard Hit rate by 20%, and has cut his chase by 5%.
Unsurprisingly, the result is the biggest power breakout in baseball through the first month, hitting .346/.426/.704 (177 wRC+). Arias is unlikely to sustain his ridiculous average exit velocity of 94 MPH through his first 20 contests, but there’s also no doubting that Arias has added a power dynamic to his profile that few expected.
We were on the generous side relative to the industry with a 45 future value on Arias’ power, though above-average pop seems attainable with the increased bat speed and improved angles.
The key variable now for Arias is his shortstop defense, where his hands are great, but the range is a bit short. If he can take a step forward with the glove as well, Arias could become one of the best prospects in baseball.
