MLB · 1 month ago

2025 MLB Awards Futures: MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year Betting Trends

Host · Writer

As we approach the stretch run of the 2025 MLB season, the futures betting landscape is taking shape across MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year races. With statistical dominance, breakout performances, and shifting betting markets, bettors now have sharper edges—and clearer risks—heading into the second half.

Here’s a breakdown of BetMGM’s latest odds leaders, sportsbook liabilities, and player stats that matter most when wagering on MLB futures.

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AL MVP: Aaron Judge Dominates While Bettors Back Witt & Raleigh

Aaron Judge has pulled away from the pack in the American League MVP race. The New York Yankees slugger leads all of baseball in OPS (1.176), batting average (.349), total bases (264), and WAR (6.9). With 82 RBIs and his usual power presence, he’s locked in as the betting favorite at -650.

But it’s Cal Raleigh (+300) who’s causing sportsbooks the most concern. Despite longshot preseason odds (+10000), the Seattle Mariners catcher leads MLB with 38 home runs and 83 RBIs, sporting a .983 OPS and 4.9 WAR. That’s driven 33.1% of the AL MVP handle at BetMGM—making him the book’s biggest liability. Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr. (+10000), who is third in the AL with 27 steals and owns a well-rounded .831 OPS with 14 HR and 56 RBIs, leads the ticket count at 20.5%, showing his widespread betting appeal. After opening near the top of the oddsboard at +475, the Kansas City Royals sparkplug has slid out of the race during a decent but not spectacular season.

Highest Ticket%: Bobby Witt Jr. 20.5%
Highest Handle%: Cal Raleigh 33.1%
Biggest Liability: Cal Raleigh
Odds leader: Aaron Judge -650

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AL Cy Young: Skubal Leads With Ace Numbers, Fried Remains a Threat

Tarik Skubal is putting up video-game numbers and has surged to the top of the AL Cy Young odds at -250. The Detroit Tigers lefty leads the league with a 2.19 ERA and an MLB-best 0.81 WHIP, while tallying 10 wins and an impressive 11.6 K/9 rate. Unsurprisingly, he’s drawing 29.8% of the handle at BetMGM and sits atop the ticket count as well.

Max Fried (+2500) remains the biggest liability for books and hasn’t made it easy to fade him. He’s tied for the MLB lead with 11 wins, owns a 2.43 ERA (fifth-lowest in the AL), and boasts a 1.01 WHIP with 113 strikeouts. While Skubal is the clear frontrunner, Fried is lurking with the kind of consistency and market exposure that can swing the award with a strong finish.

Highest Ticket%: Tarik Skubal 12.0%
Highest Handle%: Tarik Skubal 29.8%
Biggest Liability: Max Fried
Odds leader: Tarik Skubal -250

AL Rookie of the Year: Wilson Breaks Out, Caglianone Fades

Jacob Wilson is making a strong push as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at +100. Suiting up for the Athletics, he’s third in the American League batting race at .318 and pairs it with 10 home runs, 44 RBIs, and 45 runs scored. That balanced production has made him the biggest liability at BetMGM, drawing 33.5% of the handle.

On the other end, Jac Caglianone (+10000), once a preseason darling, has played himself out of contention with a disappointing .149 batting average, just five HRs, and 10 RBIs in 38 games. His name still leads 12% of the ticket share, but bettors and oddsmakers alike have shifted their focus to Wilson’s breakout campaign.

Highest Ticket%: Jac Caglianone 12.0%
Highest Handle%: Jacob Wilson 33.5%
Biggest Liability: Jacob Wilson
Odds leader: Jacob Wilson +100

NL MVP: Ohtani’s Historic Pace Leaves No Doubt

Shohei Ohtani is obliterating the National League MVP race. He leads the NL with a .993 OPS, is second with 35 home runs, and tops all of MLB with 94 runs scored. He’s the overwhelming odds leader at -800 and has drawn 38.3% of the handle, easily outpacing the field.

Elly De La Cruz (+8000) remains a fan-favorite longshot with 12.1% of tickets, thanks to an explosive mix of 18 HR, 26 stolen bases, and 75 runs (second in the NL). But despite the action, the Cincinnati Reds standout is unlikely to catch Ohtani without a massive shift in production—and luck.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+600) may be the only legit threat to Ohtani. The Chicago Cubs burgeoning superstar leads the NL with a 5.7 WAR, and is second with 28 stolen bases. PCA is also top five with 26 home runs and 72 RBI. He’s second on the NL MVP odds board and has made major headway after opening at +20000.

Highest Ticket%: Elly De La Cruz & Pete Crow-Armstrong 12.1%
Highest Handle%: Shohei Ohtani 38.3%
Biggest Liability: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Odds leader: Shohei Ohtani -800

NL Cy Young: Wheeler Leads the Odds, But Skenes Gains Ground

Zack Wheeler has lived up to his preseason billing, now leading the NL Cy Young odds at -120 after opening at +800. The Philadelphia Phillies ace ranks third in ERA at 2.39, leads the league with a 0.88 WHIP, and has racked up 164 strikeouts across nine wins. His consistency and command have earned him 13.3% of tickets and the title of biggest liability.

However, Paul Skenes (-110) is making a late charge. The Pittsburgh Pirates phenom leads all of MLB with a 1.91 ERA and has the highest pitcher WAR at 5.3. His 137 strikeouts and minuscule 0.91 WHIP through limited starts have bettors flooding the market—26.4% handle share despite fewer innings than Wheeler. This may end as the tightest award race on the board.

Highest Ticket%: Zack Wheeler 13.3%
Highest Handle%: Paul Skenes 26.4%
Biggest Liability: Zach Wheeler
Odds leader: Zack Wheeler -120

NL Rookie of the Year: Misiorowski’s Late Push Gains Steam

While Matt Shaw (+3000) leads ticket count at 11.1%, he’s no longer a serious NL Rookie of the Year threat, batting just .216 with four HRs and 19 RBIs in 67 games. Once among the favorites at +600, the Chicago Cubs’ freshman slides to the back of the ROY line.

Drake Baldwin (+300), hitting .290 with 11 HR, 39 RBIs, and an .846 OPS, has emerged as BetMGM’s biggest liability with 18.8% of handle. The Atlanta Braves catcher remains very much in the mix.

But it’s Jacob Misiorowski who has seized momentum and now leads the odds at -200. In just five starts for the Milwaukee Brewers, he boasts a 4-1 record, 2.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts in 25.2 innings. With no runaway favorite taking hold of the award in the first half, Misiorowski’s dominance is turning heads—and shifting markets.