TLDR:
Smith looks like a star already — 149 wRC+, Gold Glove-caliber defense in right field, elite run times, and he’s already matched his entire 2025 fWAR in two weeks.
Swing+ is a hitter evaluation model created by Just Baseball’s Shaan Donohue that translates swing mechanics into expected performance. By modeling how swing traits like bat speed, path, and attack angle influence contact quality and bat-to-ball ability, Swing+ provides a clear, data-driven snapshot of a hitter’s offensive profile.
Hear me out:
This is a heater for a player with a real track record of being below average offensively — so why plant the flag now?
If you’ve listened to the Just Baseball Show or The Call Up, you know Aram Leighton has been on Smith for a while. He has consistently called out how great an athlete Smith is. Turns out the guy who skipped the minor leagues, learned a new position on the fly, and graded out as a Gold Glove-caliber right fielder… is a freak athlete.
Now that athleticism is showing up in the box.
Smith is sitting in the 98th percentile in bat speed — and he just turned 23. When you pair that with elite run times and high-end defensive value, you start to see a profile that can impact the game in every phase.
Here’s the list of players who rank top-10 in OAA, bat speed, and sprint speed through 15 games:
That’s the list.
But this isn’t just tools — the swing is changing in ways that actually matter. He’s getting to better angles, creating more natural lift without sacrificing contact, and the underlying batted ball profile is starting to reflect it. This is exactly the type of adjustment that turns raw ability into real offensive production.
And from a modeling perspective, the shift is meaningful. The expected outcomes are jumping — not because of variance, but because the inputs have changed. Better swing direction, better impact, better decisions. That’s the kind of signal that tends to stick.
Houston didn’t just get a good player in the Kyle Tucker deal — they may have landed a star for the next decade.
The kings stay the kings.
Squint Meter: 1.3. This is the breakout of a superstar and I am not sure we know how high the ceiling is yet.
