American League Championship Series Prediction | ALCS Picks Today, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
Without the Houston Astros around to stop them, the New York Yankees hope to make their first World Series appearance since 2009. Standing in their way is a stout Cleveland Guardians team that has been underestimated since the season’s outset. Expected to finish middle of the pack in the AL Central, Cleveland surprised many by winning the division and securing a first-round bye in the playoffs. They can extend that magical run by upsetting the behemoth Yankees, but the odds are stacked against them.
ALCS Guardians vs. Yankees Schedule
- Game 1: Monday, October 14 – 7:38 pm ET @ Yankee Stadium
- Game 2: Tuesday, October 15 – 7:38 pm ET @ Yankee Stadium
- Game 3: Thursday, October 17 – 5:08 pm ET @ Progressive Field
- Game 4: Friday, October 18 – 8:08 pm ET @ Progressive Field
- Game 5: Saturday, October 19 – 8:08 pm ET @ Progressive Field (if necessary)
- Game 4: Monday, October 21 – 5:08 pm ET @ Yankee Stadium (if necessary)
- Game 5: Tuesday, October 22 – 7:38 pm ET @ Yankee Stadium (if necessary)
ALCS Guardians vs Yankees Series Odds
- Series Odds: Guardians +172 | Yankees -205
- Series Spread: Guardians +1.5 (-130) | Yankees -1.5 (+102)
- Series Total: OVER 5.5 (-175) | UNDER 5.5 (+140)
ALCS Guardians vs Yankees Winner Best Bet: Yankees -205
The New York Yankees have an advantage over the Guardians in every facet of the game. Offensively, the Bronx Bombers are light years ahead of their ALCS counterparts. New York finished the regular season with the most home runs in the majors and the third-best OPS. Hitting the ball wasn’t the Guardians’ strength. Cleveland finished a distant 17th in OPS, swatting the 12th-most homers in the bigs. Predictably, that correlates with decreased run production, with Cleveland finishing over 100 runs short of the Yankees.
The advantages don’t end there. Collectively, New York’s pitching staff had better metrics than the Guardians. The Yankees finished ahead of Cleveland in ERA and strikeouts, with nearly identical WHIP and opponent batting average metrics. That success came with Gerrit Cole on the injured list for most of the season, illustrating the depth and effectiveness of the Yankees’ staff.
We can’t forget about the home-field advantage. The Guardians were nipping at the Yankees’ heels toward the end of the year but still came up two wins shy of the first-place AL East Champs. Now, Cleveland will have to find a way to steal at least one game on the road while sweeping the Yankees at Progressive Field, which is too big of an ask.
Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.
ALCS Guardians vs Yankees Best Bet Total: Over 5.5
New York’s advantages could result in a short-lived series, but we’ll give the Guardians credit for at least two wins in the ALCS. Starting pitchers Matthew Boyd and Tanner Bibee have been sensational out of the gates for Cleveland, paving the way for Cade Smith and the rest of its bullpen. The same can’t be said for the Yankees’ Carlos Rodon, who takes the ball in Game 1 on Monday night. In his lone start of the ALDS, Rodon was lit up for four earned runs in 3.2 innings pitches, representing one of the Yankees’ biggest liabilities. Putting Rodon on the mound for Game 1 gives the Guardians two solid opportunities to knock around the southpaw.
ALCS Guardians vs Yankees Best Player Props
Josh Naylor to Record 2 or More Home Runs +210
Playing at Yankee Stadium comes with a unique set of advantages for left-handed hitters. The short porch out to right has been a boon for hard-hitting lefties, fitting Josh Naylor’s analytics profile to a tee. The Guardians’ first baseman underperformed in the Divisional Round, but he’s primed for progression against the Yankees. Thanks to his above-average barrel and contact metrics, Naylor finished with a top-end expected slugging percentage. He squares up the ball 27.1% of the time, putting Naylor in the 69th percentile among MLB hitters. While he was skunked against the Detroit Tigers, we’re betting he breaks out in a big way in the ALCS. At +210, we’re backing him to record two or more home runs.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
