I took the weekend off to get my mind right after a 0-2 day on Friday. This season has not gone according to plan; it’s my worst campaign ever since I started posting picks publicly in 2021. Baseball is a grind, and when it’s not going your way, it’s tough to keep going.

Luckily, our futures appear to be returning the units we’ve lost. That doesn’t mean I’m changing up how I do day-to-day picks, but it’s worth remembering and keeping in the back of our heads. 

2024 Record: 96-103 (-10.23 U)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Sonny Gray (3.65 ERA) vs. Andrew Abbott (3.70 ERA)

Usually, the starting pitching matchup is the main attraction when taking an under. We certainly have a good one here, but I’m more intrigued with the bullpens in this matchup. Not only are they both solid, but they have plenty of rest going into this one. Even if the starting pitchers combined to allow five runs, I don’t see more than nine runs being scored in this one.

Sonny Gray is as solid as they come. All of his underlying ERA predictors are great, and he’s rocking a strikeout rate over 30% for the first time since the shortened 2020 season. He’s also supporting a 5.8% walk rate, the lowest of his career. Based on K-BB, this is the best Sonny Gray has looked throughout his career.

He comes into this game on a mini-hot streak. He’s thrown two straight seven-inning, two-run performances with 15 strikeouts to two walks. Gray got beat up the last time he faced the Reds, allowing six runs, three of them being earned, in 4.1 innings. I have faith that the veteran will make the proper adjustment and bounce back.

The Reds offense isn’t swinging the bat well right now. Over the last week, the Reds have a 98 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is below average. Over the last two weeks, they have a 100 wRC+. Since the All-Star break, they have a 93 wRC+. I project six innings while allowing three runs for Sonny Gray, with the upside for a better outing.

Andrew Abbott lines up to face the Cardinals. He had two very different starts this season against St. Louis. In his first start, he allowed six earned runs in six innings. He only allowed two hits and two earned runs in five innings in his second start.

He does have something working in his favor. For whatever reason, since 2020, Cardinals games have gone under after a loss and facing a left-handed starter. The under is 51-25-2 (67.1%) (27.39% ROI).

Abbott can be moderately effective to hit this under. Remember, this is a total set at nine; we have some breathing room here. He is still a solid pitcher by the underlying metrics and surface-level stats, and he’s performed better at home and during night games this season.

The Cardinals have a good offense, putting up a 120 wRC+ against lefties over the last two weeks, but I don’t see Abbott getting destroyed to the point where this is out of reach. In his previous 11 starts at home, he’s averaging 2.1 runs per game. We should cruise if he can stay within range over five to six innings.

The Reds bullpen has been sneaky awesome this season. They rank fourth in ERA, sixth in FIP, ninth in xFIP. They had a few pitchers go yesterday, but nobody went over 16 pitches, so everyone should be available. I don’t expect the Cardinals to score much after Abbott exits.

The Cardinals bullpen is also a borderline top-ten unit this season. They rank tenth in ERA, 13th in FIP, and 11th in xFIP. They had the off-day yesterday, so we should see their better arms come into play here after Gray exits. The bullpen is good enough to limit damage, even if they aren’t the better arms.

Abbott’s struggles lately make this total too high. I don’t think he’s fallen off a cliff after a few bad outings. I’m not laying juice here if he turns into a pumpkin again, but it’s worth the wager on the under. Take it at nine, or limit the risk if it goes to 8.5.

The Pick: Under 9 (-120) Risk 1 Unit

By Peter Appel

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