Carter Jensen Is Primed for a Major Breakout in 2026

The disparity surrounding the roller coaster that is prospect development has long been misunderstood. Baseball fans will look at prospect lists across multiple analysts and zone in on the little number next to the player and expect them to achieve those expectations in the shortest time possible.

As you hear multiple times when it comes to development, “Progress isn’t linear.”

Here at Just Baseball, we make it a point to not just release prospect lists as frequently as possible, but to ensure that the quality of the list matches what realistic expectations should be associated with a prospect.

While everyone has their misses, Carter Jensen is one who — across multiple lists in the industry — has been ranked highly, and the 20-game sample size he teased us with at the end of last season validated those rankings.

In those 20 games, the Kansas City Royals’ 2025 Minor League Player of the Year put up a .300/.391/.550 slash line with three home runs, 13 RBIs, a 13% BB%, and 0.7fWAR. Not to mention the immediate showcasing of his above-average defense behind the plate, which justifies why he is currently ranked as the 13th-best prospect on the latest release of Just Baseball’s Top 100 list.

Prospect Profile

Jensen was drafted in the third round (78th overall) of the 2021 MLB Draft out of Park Hill High School. Even though he was committed to LSU at the time, he and the Royals reached an over-slot agreement to pay him $1 million to convince him to bypass college and start his professional career at the age of 17.

He quickly proved the Royals right by coming out of the gates hot in his first year at the complex. In those 19 games in 2021, he hit .281/.388/.404, and while he only had one home run during that time, considering he was not known much for his power coming into the draft, there was always the hope that he would continue to fill out his frame and run into more power as he progressed through the system.

Although he struggled a bit during his age-18 and 19 seasons, 2024 provided the Royals front office the optimism that they needed to continue to believe in him as the future backstop of the organization.

In 2024, between High-A and Double-A, Jensen hit .259 in 125 games, but it was the 18 home runs that he smashed that year that solidified his “coming out” party. The athletic traits really began to make themselves known when he sprinkled in 17 stolen bases that year as well.

It wasn’t just the power. He continued to prove that he can maintain a high walk rate (13.2%) while limiting the strikeouts (23.4%), to go along with a 130 wRC+. He also threw out 38% of runners that season, which was above the league average at the time (around 29.5%).

2024 was the year that Jensen officially supplanted his organization-mate, Blake Mitchell, who many thought would be the Royals’ backstop of the future. It was at that point that the rumblings of Mitchell possibly moving to the outfield began to swirl.

The purpose of that was because, while Jensen is now seen as the catcher of the future, Mitchell could still provide the Royals’ offense with immense upside with the bat.

Nonetheless, in 2025, Jensen took it to the next level.

Prior to his promotion to Kansas City near the end of the season, in 111 games between Double-A and Triple-A, the .290/.377/.501 slash line looks nice, but it was the 20 home runs that he hit that got him promoted to the big leagues. Along with that, he continued to showcase his baserunning ability, stealing 10 bags as the team’s primary catcher.

It’s clear that he’s set the foundation for a very strong season heading into 2026.

2026 Breakout Incoming

My opening remarks still hold; despite the development of Jensen as each year has gone by, there is no guarantee that he will continue to get better as he continues to get playing time in Kansas City.

Even if that is the case, as we are about to enter the beginning of the 2026 MLB season, the current version of Jensen looks to be a darn good MLB player.

There is no reason to believe that he cannot put up 30 home run seasons during his major-league career with his raw power. It’s not as if the peripherals were uninspiring last season, either.

In that 20-game sample size that we got last year, the under-the-hood metrics did nothing but support the fact that he is ready to take the league by storm once he is named the starting catcher for the organization. The numbers that support this would be the .447 xwOBA, .336 xBA, and .633 xSLG.

Then, we can refer back to his defensive ability, which has also continued to improve as he has climbed through the minor leagues. The athleticism was never a question, but his motor at the position definitely was, which was attributed largely to the double-digit passed balls during the 2023 season.

As it currently stands, Jensen has the fourth-best odds on BetMGM to win the AL Rookie of the Year award at +600. Though it doesn’t seem like the long shot that many like to take the chance on, I would argue that he isn’t high enough on the list with how high I am on him coming into this season.

Final Thoughts

The Kansas City Royals have been lucky to have a staple behind the dish for as long as they have.

Salvador Perez will likely go down as one of the best players in Royals history, but his defense has rapidly declined, and the team would be better off getting him off his feet and transitioning more into the DH role going forward.

Entering his age-36 season, while the power has stayed steady, his defensive limitations outweigh his offensive production. Locking Salvy into the DH role is going to give Carter Jensen all of the playing time necessary to support the notion of him being a strong breakout candidate in 2026.

While his teammate, Jac Caglianone, gets a lot of the attention dating back to when he was a two-way player at Florida, I would argue that Jensen is not only going to put up better numbers this year, but be a better major-league player overall as they transition into the later years of their careers.

The combination of his above-average traits in hitting, plate discipline, and fielding, along with a near-elite level of raw power, makes Jensen the breakout candidate of the 2026 season in my eyes.

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