MLB · 1 year ago

Giants vs. Mariners Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

Giants vs. Mariners Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners @ 10:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Hayden Birdsong (5.01 ERA) vs. Luis Castillo (3.51 ERA)

Have all the intel you need? Free actionable info is one click away! Sign up for our daily newsletter, SportsGrid Daily.

The Mariners are -155… in this economy?

I know they have Luis Castillo on the mound, and they’ve performed better at home, but this team is spiraling. They just finished up a 1-8 road trip, during which the offense continued to do nothing. They face a Giants team playing good baseball, winning four of their last five games.

We just faded this offense against Gavin Stone, whose best pitch is also a changeup. The Giants have the better bullpen and better offense. As long as Birdsong can hang with Castillo, we’ll be live this entire game.

They have a new manager, who can often be a jump-starter for a new team, but Dan Wilson will not magically get this team to hit. They rank in the bottom five in xwOBA against righties who feature fastballs, curveballs, sliders, and changeups.

Birdsong has faced two teams that rank below the Mariners against this mix. He dominated the Rockies in Coors and at Oracle for a combined 11 innings of two-run ball with 20 strikeouts. He faced the Guardians on the road and was fine, allowing two runs in 4.2 innings with five strikeouts.

Hayden Birdsong is just 22 years old, and he’s been up and down. Similar to Arrighetti yesterday, there is an upside here. The two most important ERA predictors are SIERA and xERA; we’ve spoken about those two at length this season. Birdsong has a 4.13 SIERA and 4.61 xERA, which are both lower than his 5.10 ERA.

I expect him to go at most five innings because he has a rested Giants bullpen behind him that ranks 8th in ERA since July 1. Jordan Hicks moving back to the bullpen has been significant for him; he’s gone seven straight appearances without allowing a run. Ryan Walker, one of the better relievers in baseball, is fully rested. So are the Rogers brothers, who both have ERA’s under three. Erik Miller is also available, a lefty I’m buying stock in. Love how the arms are set up behind Birdsong.

Castillo is a great pitcher, and he’s better at home, rocking a 2.85 ERA. Castillo’s numbers at home are fantastic; the Mariners are 7-7 in his home starts. Just because he’s excellent doesn’t mean the Mariners constantly win in his home starts.

Castillo has a 3.79 SIERA and a 3.88 xERA. He’s good, but he’s the Mariners’ fourth-best pitcher at the moment. However, he’s priced like an ace. I prefer Kirby and Gilbert, and Woo has been better lately. Regardless of where you rank these pitchers, the numbers say he’s not an ace. I don’t think he’s an ace, but I believe this is an ace price.

Behind Castillo is a bullpen in a good rest spot, but they haven’t been outstanding. Since July 1, they rank 18th in bullpen ERA; outside of Munoz and Snider, I can’t rely on any of these arms.

The Mariners have a slight pitching advantage throughout the game just because of the gap between Castillo and Birdsong. It’s minimal at best, and there isn’t an advantage on offense, too. The Mariners have the higher wRC+ in the last two weeks, and the Giants have the lead over the past week.

The manager getting fired can spark a team, and maybe the Mariners do come to play today, but at this price, it’s well worth a shot to find out if that spark is there.

This game is much closer to a coin flip than the market says it is. If Birdsong doesn’t have a terrible outing, we should be live for the entire game. I make the Giants +110, so anything to +120 is a play for me.