MLB · 1 month ago

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Tigers, Mets and Marlins Picks and Best Bets Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Tigers, Mets and Marlins Picks and Best Bets Today

Tonight’s three-leg MLB parlay brings together value spots backed by elite pitching matchups, advanced metrics, and clear offensive trends. The Marlins draw a Cleveland team whose contact profile ranks among the league’s worst, setting up perfectly for Edward Cabrera’s power arsenal. The Mets send Kodai Senga to the mound against a shorthanded Braves lineup, pairing a potent New York offense with a struggling Bryce Elder. And in Minnesota, Tarik Skubal continues his Cy Young push against a depleted Twins team that’s already been shut out twice by the Tigers this season.

Each leg offers plus-money upside in matchups that are tilted in our favor.

Let’s roll!

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Where to Watch Marlins vs Guardians

Ballpark: Progressive Field
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Where to Watch: CLEG and FDSFL
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Spread: CLE -1.5 (+176) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: MIA +104 | CLE -122

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Marlins Moneyline vs Guardians +104

The Cleveland Guardians don’t deserve to be favorites against anyone right now, never mind a very plucky Miami Marlins bunch, who have played very well in the second half of the season.

Cleveland ranks dead last in expected batting average (.231), expected slugging percentage (.379), and expected weighted on-base average (.300) — a clear sign their struggles aren’t just bad luck, but baked into their overall approach. And the contact metrics don’t offer any relief. They’re bottom two in barrel rate (6.8%) and last in hard-hit rate (35.9%), meaning the majority of their contact lacks both the exit velocity (88.5 MPH – second-last in MLB) and launch angle to consistently do damage. That combination forces them to string together multiple low-quality hits to produce runs, an uphill battle against quality pitching.

Edward Cabrera is quality pitching. After the Marlins decided not to move Cabrera at the deadline, he has continued doing what he does. The big righty has gone four straight starts allowing just one run in each, to lower his season ERA to 3.08 after coming off his most dominant start of the year. Cabrera fanned 11 Braves, through eight innings of two-hit ball where he gave up just one run, notching his sixth win of the campaign last week. While he hasn’t needed much run support lately, Miami’s hot enough right now to provide a cushion tonight.

The Marlins have scored the fifth-most runs over the past 15 days, scoring 68 runs over that 13-game span. Miami’s .763 OPS over that stretch puts them in the top 10, to go along with a top 10 slugging percentage of .430. On the season, the Fish have an xBA of .260, which also puts them in the top 10. As they look to cruise to the finish line swinging for the fences, Miami has consistently put up runs lately. There’s no reason that won’t continue against a struggling Guardians starter.

Tanner Bibee has pitched to a 4.60 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, while opponents are hitting .254 against him. The young righty has given up four runs in each of his past three starts and logged just 15 innings over that span. Bibee lacks swing-and-miss stuff, with a 24.7% chase rate, which places him in the bottom 14% of pitchers, and a 24.9% whiff rate, ranking him in the bottom half of MLB. His pitching run value score of -4 has Bibee in the bottom 26 percent of big league hurlers, and he is not an intimidating presence on the mound.

I love the price we are getting on the Marlinos tonight against a very mediocre Cleveland team.

MIA vs CLE Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Braves vs Mets

Ballpark: Citi Field
Location: Queens, New York
Where to Watch: SNY, FDSSO
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: NYM -1.5 (+106) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: ATL +164 NYM -196

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 2: Mets Runline +106

A night after getting throttled in an 11-6 loss, the New York Mets hand the ball to Kodai Senga to bounce back in the rubber match against the Atlanta Braves. Senga has been one of baseball’s most consistent arms this year, sporting a 7-4 record with a 2.30 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and just 70 hits allowed over 94 innings. His strikeout-to-hit ratio jumps off the page (88 K to 70 H), and he’s surrendered only nine home runs all season.

On the other side, Bryce Elder’s struggles have been glaring. He’s 4-9 with a bloated 6.12 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, giving up 117 hits and 39 walks in just 100 innings. The long ball has been a persistent issue — 18 homers allowed already — and his inability to miss bats (81 strikeouts) leaves him vulnerable against elite lineups.

That’s bad news against a Mets offense that’s still stacked with Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Francisco Lindor lined up. They rank fourth in MLB in expected slugging (.457) and fourth in expected wOBA (.345), backed by elite quality-of-contact numbers across the board. Even without yesterday’s result going their way, this lineup remains relentless and capable of blowing games open early.

Meanwhile, Atlanta’s offense continues to labor without Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley, hitting just .238 over the past month with middling power metrics. Against Senga’s swing-and-miss stuff, that gap in firepower becomes even more pronounced.

With a sharp pitching edge, a potent lineup, and a struggling opposing starter, I like the Mets to cover the runline tonight.

ATL vs NYM Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Tigers vs Twins

Ballpark: Target Field
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
Where to Watch: MNNT, FDSDET
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Spread: DET -1.5 (-125) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: DET -205 MIN +172

Leg 3: Twins Under 2.5 vs Tigers +102

There is a reason why Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal is the favorite (-425) to win another AL Cy Young award this year. The Minnesota Twins are about to find out those reasons firsthand this evening.

Skubal leads the American League with a 2.35 ERA, while also leading the Junior Circuit with an 11.6 K/9 ratio. The Tigers star also boasts an MLB-best 0.86 WHIP to go along with the AL’s best WAR among pitchers at 5.5. Skubal’s advanced metrics are equally impressive. He leads the league with a pitching run value score of 41, while sporting an xERA of 2.52, which sits in the top three percent of big league arms. The dominant lefty also has a 34.7% chase rate, which puts him in the top three percent of pitchers, and a whiff rate of 33.2%, putting him in the upper six percent of baseball. Now, Skubal gets to plump his stats against a team he’s already dominated once this season.

The California native mystified Minnesota bats over seven innings, where he allowed no runs, one walk, one hit, and struck out his season-best 13. Skubal threw 93 pitches, 67 of which were strikes, to pick up his 10th straight victory on the season. It was the second time Minnesota was shut out in a game against Detroit this season. This comes a year after Skubal beat the cream out of the Twinkies, going 2-0 in three starts with a 2.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and .169 batting average.

This season, Minnesota’s offense is worse, and this team had a fire sale at the MLB Trade Deadline. The Twins have the ninth-lowest xBA (.247), and are in the bottom half of baseball in xSLG (.418), xwOBA (.321), and xwOBACON (.374). Those poor metrics have led to Minny being the seventh-lowest scoring team in the league, averaging 4.1 runs per game. That number has been right around the same since they moved Carlos Correa and other regular bats at the deadline.

I like Skubal to again stymie Minnesota’s offense, and the fact that we are getting this under at plus money is an absolute gift.

DET vs MIN Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates