2024 Record: 56-67 (-13.25 U)

Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland A’s @ 9:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: George Kirby vs. Mitch Spence

In the warm confines of Oakland, where the sun generously bathes the ballpark, the stage is set for what promises to be a pitcher’s duel par excellence. With the mercury rising, one might surmise the environment ripe for hitters. Contrarily, the day’s matchup paired with bullpens, brimming with vitality post-rest, suggests a looming battleground for runs.

Mitch Spence has been a revelation. Nestled comfortably with an ERA of 3.52, his performance justifies the number. Over 38 innings this season, Spence’s arsenal, highlighted by a commendable 3.17 xERA and a 3.52 SIERA, has been nothing short of impressive. His xFIP and FIP stay grounded below the 3.65 threshold. Striking a chord with the analytics aficionados, his hard contact suppression charts in the 64th percentile, while his groundball induction prowess scales to the 79th percentile.

A maestro with the breaking balls, his slider and curveball, endowed with spins surpassing 2700 RPMs, are a testament to his craft, luring hitters into the void beyond the zone. Versatility is another feather in his cap, subduing batters on either side of the plate, maintaining a .670 OPS or lower against him. Although Spence might not be the marathon man on the mound, averaging 3-5 innings per outing, his recent showcase against the Rays – a scoreless 5.1 innings gem – solidifies his effectiveness, albeit on a limited pitch count.

Facing him are the Mariners, who have struggled to make their mark against right-handers this season, languishing with a 22nd-best wRC+ and taking the 28th spot in OPS. Recent times have seen little improvement, with their batting prowess waning further in the past fortnight. Their penchant for strikeouts, ranking significantly high, plays right into Spence’s hands.

On the opposing mound stands George Kirby, reminiscing over his skirmishes with the A’s last year, boasting a resilient three runs over seven innings in each encounter. Kirby’s ERA, at 4.08, is a puzzle waiting for resolution. His arm, however, betrays no flaws. With a Hard-Hit rate at a career low, Kirby’s only blip seems to be an inclination for air bound contacts, a minor concern given the expansive Oakland Coliseum.

Both teams, equipped with top-tier bullpens enjoying a day’s respite, are set to throttle the offense post-starters’ exit. In the narrative of this game, even a stumble from the mound is unlikely to unravel into a scoring frenzy, reminiscent of a subdued offensive affair as seen in the Cubs versus Reds matchup. Despite a lukewarm start in the betting markets, having missed out on the early numbers, there’s a silver lining in the perseverance to outdo the market dynamics. As the unfolding drama in Oakland beckons, the anticipation for a tightly contested duel under the serene sky holds promise.

Best Bet: Mariners vs. A’s Under 7.5 (-115) Risk to win 0.5 Units

This post by Peter Appel appeared first on Just Baseball.