MLB Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategies: Aces vs Elite Hitters
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The Volatility of Starting Pitching in Fantasy Baseball
Starting pitching remains the most volatile investment in fantasy baseball. Even the most elite arms carry significant risk due to injuries, workload concerns, and unpredictable performance fluctuations. Your approach to drafting pitchers should be dictated by your league format.
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Head-to-Head Points Leagues: If wins are heavily weighted (e.g., 10 points) and strikeouts carry value (e.g., 2 points per K), prioritizing starting pitchers early makes sense. Locking in aces can provide consistency in week-to-week matchups.
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Head-to-Head Categories: Drafting a dominant ace in the second round can be justified, but pitching depth remains more valuable than a single elite arm.
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Season-Long Roto Leagues: Investing a first-round pick in a pitcher is often a losing strategy. The offensive talent pool at the top is deep, and high-upside pitchers can be found later in drafts or even on waivers during the season.
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Evaluating Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes in Fantasy Drafts
Tarik Skubal: Legitimate Ace or Overpriced?
Tarik Skubal broke out in 2023 with a full season of strong production, but durability concerns still linger. His ADP places him around 16th overall, which means you’re choosing between him and elite offensive talents like:
While Skubal has Cy Young potential, his draft price forces a tough decision. If you’re in a format where pitching carries extra value, he’s a solid pick. Otherwise, prioritizing a premier hitter may be the better move.
Ranking the AL Central Starting Rotations for the 2025 MLB Season
Paul Skenes: Too Much Hype?
Paul Skenes has been going as high as 12th overall in some drafts. That means passing on bats like:
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Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Skenes may be an electric talent, but drafting an unproven arm this early carries considerable risk. While he could be a frontline starter, young pitchers often experience growing pains, and it’s hard to justify taking him over elite bats who can anchor your lineup all season.
The Depth of Starting Pitching and Waiver Wire Opportunities
A key argument against drafting an SP early is the depth available later. Fantasy baseball consistently provides valuable pitching options in the mid-to-late rounds and even on waivers:
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Sean Manaea (2023) – A waiver wire pickup who provided key innings.
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Luis Severino – Another solid contributor available in many leagues.
Instead of reaching for an ace early, targeting reliable SP2-SP3 options later in the draft while loading up on premium hitters is a strong strategy.
Ranking the NL West Starting Rotations for the 2025 MLB Season
Draft Smart: Lead With Your Head, Not Your Heart
Before making your pick, assess your league scoring system. In formats where pitching is devalued, going after high-upside bats is the smarter move. However, if wins and strikeouts carry extra weight, securing an ace early could be justifiable.
Ranking the AL East Starting Rotations for the 2025 MLB Season
Final Thoughts
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Tarik Skubal is a top-tier pitcher but might not be worth the price at 16th overall if you can grab an elite hitter instead.
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Paul Skenes is an exciting talent, but 12th overall is too rich given his lack of MLB experience.
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There are plenty of valuable SPs available later in drafts and on waivers.
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Always let your league settings dictate your approach—not the hype around a player.
By balancing your roster with elite hitters early and finding value in pitching later, you’ll build a more sustainable team over the course of the fantasy baseball season.
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