MLB Player Props (August 12): Cash In These Home Run Hitters
Grant White
Host · Writer
We’re heading into one of the most crucial weeks of the MLB season, with several high-profile matchups impacting playoff races. As usual, we’ve combed through the SportsGrid MLB Player Props, identifying the pre-eminent plus-money wagers that yield a long-term advantage for bettors.
Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.
Jose Siri – To Record a Home Run (+870)
The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been conspicuously quiet lately. Despite modest advancements in their collective OPS and runs per game over the past month, Tampa Bay was held to three or fewer runs in five of their past seven. That imbalance creates an edge in looking to the Rays to cash in big time versus the Houston Astros on Monday.
One player to keep an eye on is Jose Siri. The rangy centerfielder is operating well below expected levels offensively, making him the Rays’ poster boy for progress over the coming games.
Heading into Monday’s action, Siri’s slugging percentage is nearly 60 points beneath where it should be. He’s toting around an above-average .436 expected slugging percentage, substantially ahead of his season-long benchmark of .379. Mired in a four-game hitless streak, Siri’s primed to break out in a big way.
Last week, the 29-year-old recorded hits in all three games versus the Astros. A double in the series finale was included, along with several hard-hit balls that failed to yield anything meaningful. A repeat performance is on tap against Framber Valdez.
Siri mashes off southpaws, with five of his 14 homers coming in just 86 at-bats. That puts him at a .453 slugging percentage on the campaign, significantly above his .351 split off of righties. Moreover, Valdez continues to struggle with giving up hard contact, ranking in the third percentile with a disastrous 47.3% rate. Not surprisingly, that’s translated to him giving up long fly balls in three of his past four starts.
At +870, Siri is worth the investment as a potential home run hitter.
More MLB: Can Betting Over $2 on the Chicago White Sox Be Justified?
Spencer Steer – To Record a Home Run (+560)
There is a trio of Cincinnati Reds players who feature prominently in our projections. All three are enticing candidates to cash as plus-money bets in the prop market. While you may be tempted by the allure of TJ Friedl or Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer is our preferred option to record a home run against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Riding a modest four-game hitting streak into the series opener, Steer has been crushing the ball of late. The hard-hitting outfielder has totaled six hits across the sample, with one leaving the park. Steer is poised to continue his heater against former Reds standout Sonny Gray.
The right-handed batting Steer has better splits versus righties, with his slugging percentage jumping eight points compared to lefties. What’s captured in that .420 slugging percentage versus right-handers are 13 of his 16 home runs and 30 of his 44 extra-base hits.
Gray will have revenge on his mind against his former team, but his metrics suggest that things could get bumpy. The three-time All-Star sits in the 23rd percentile in barrel rate, precipitating below-average standing in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Waves collide as the hot-hitting Steer faces off against a Reds pitcher prone to hard contact in MLB’s most home run-friendly park. While the Reds are favored, we’re betting Steer swats another dinger, cashing as a +560 any time home run hitter.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
