MLB Player Props (May 8): Plus-Money Wagers Worth Betting
Grant White
Host · Writer
There’s nothing like a full day of baseball to help power through the mid-week blues. We’re running through the SportsGrid MLB Player Props, identifying the pre-eminent plus-money wagers that yield a long-term advantage for bettors.
Nick Pivetta – Over 5.5 Ks (+128)
The Boston Red Sox conclude their mini two-game set against the Atlanta Braves with a Wednesday evening showdown. Boston needs to extract maximum value from Nick Pivetta if it has any chance of salvaging the split against the powerhouse Braves.
Thankfully, Pivetta has been up to the challenge with his early-season efforts. The Red Sox righty was forced to the sidelines after just his second start, striking out 13 batters across 11.0 innings pitched. Although it’s his first game back after an extended absence, we expect Pivetta to pick up where he left off when he returns to the mound.
In limited action, Pivetta has mixed his five-pitch arsenal flawlessly. Altogether, he’s induced a 32.2% whiff rate while coming in above 25.0% with all of his offerings. Pivetta’s sweeper has been his best pitch, with batters swinging and missing at a 33.3% rate, translating to a paltry .172 expected slugging percentage.
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The Braves have loosened the reigns at the plate lately. Their 108 strikeouts over the past couple of weeks are 11th-most in the MLB, and their 29.7% strikeout rate drops them to fourth-worst. Surely, that approach benefits Nick Pivetta in his pursuit of strikeouts. We’re betting he exceeds 5.5 by the end of the night.
Edouard Julien – To Record a Home Run (+560)
Edouard Julien will have a chance to break out of his slump in a big way when his Minnesota Twins take on the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday night. The hard-hitting second baseman has just one hit in 20 plate appearances in May, but it’s time for the pendulum to start swinging in the other direction.
Julien was unstoppable throughout the first month of the campaign. The Auburn alum put together an All-Star-worthy .500 slugging percentage, sending seven balls over the bleachers and adding another four extra-base hits. Moreover, he has the underlying metrics supporting ongoing success at the plate. So far this season, Julien has a 15.4% barrel rate, putting him in the 91st percentile among all MLB hitters.
As good as George Kirby has been this season, he has looked worse outside the confines of T-Mobile Park. Kirby’s WHIP jumps nearly 30 points on the road, with his K/9 rate dropping from 10.8 to 7.8. Likewise, opponent slugging percentage increases to .419, up from .333 at home.
Given his solid analytics profile, Julien should be able to turn things around quickly. Kirby can facilitate some of that progression, as he’s been ineffective as the visiting pitcher. As a result, we’re planting the SportsGrid flag in Julien and sending a ball into orbit on Wednesday night.
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