April Stats: 32 G, 143 PA, 12 HR, 27 RBI, .356/.462/.737, 220 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR
I’m going to tell you about two players and what they did through their age-28 seasons.
The first player won a Rookie of the Year and a Silver Slugger, earned two All-Star nods and one top-three MVP finish, and hit for a 151 wRC+, racking up 18.8 fWAR.
The second player won a Rookie of the Year and a Silver Slugger, earned three All-Star nods and one top-three MVP finish, and hit for a 163 wRC+, racking up 23.7 fWAR.
Both players had absolutely dominant age-25 seasons, two of the best offensive campaigns we’ve seen since the days of Barry Bonds, but injuries held them back from reaching their full potential again for the next several years.
The first player is Aaron Judge. Since his age-29 season, he has hit 260 home runs, won three MVPs, and cemented himself as a future Hall of Famer.
The second player is Yordan Alvarez. He doesn’t turn 29 until June.
Am I saying that Alvarez is the next Aaron Judge? Of course not. I can’t promise you that his 60-homer pace and 220 wRC+ are sustainable. All I mean to say is that breakouts can happen at any age and any stage. Alvarez has always pulverized baseballs, but he’s never pulverized them quite like this.
Alvarez leads the majors with a .498 wOBA. Somehow, his expected wOBA is another 32 points higher. By xwOBA, he just had the best first month of a season by an AL hitter in Statcast history (since 2015).
Here’s the list of every player who has posted an xwOBA of at least .520 in a month. Each one of them, except for Alvarez, is an MVP winner.
| Hitter |
Month |
xwOBA |
| Aaron Judge |
May 2024 |
.588 |
| Aaron Judge |
Sep/Oct 2025 |
.575 |
| Aaron Judge |
May 2023 |
.557 |
| Aaron Judge |
Sep/Oct 2017 |
.550 |
| Cody Bellinger |
Mar/Apr 2019 |
.547 |
| Miguel Cabrera |
Sep/Oct 2016 |
.545 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
June 2021 |
.540 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
June 2023 |
.535 |
| Yordan Alvarez |
Mar/Apr 2026 |
.529 |
| Joey Votto |
July 2015 |
.529 |
| Mike Trout |
May 2017 |
.523 |
| Mookie Betts |
Mar/Apr 2018 |
.523 |
| Freddie Freeman |
Sep/Oct 2020 |
.520 |
So, maybe this was just an MVP-caliber month for Yordan Alvarez. Or maybe it was the first month of an MVP season.