MLB Wild Card Top 3 Longshots Today: Wednesday Night Picks (Oct. 1)

MLB Wild Card baseball has already lived up to the billing, and we’re back on the hunt for plus-money swings after cashing two of our longshot recommendations on opening night. Game 2 brings a pair of compelling setups: the Boston Red Sox are riding a 1-0 lead into The Bronx after stunning the New York Yankees in the opener, and the Los Angeles Dodgers are looking to bury the Cincinnati Reds early after a 10-4 rout in Game 1.

Our approach leans into value spots where the market hasn’t caught up—whether it’s an anemic offense facing an ace, or a power bat sitting in the right split. Anything north of +250 is firmly in play, and we’ve lined up our favorite angles for tonight’s slate.

Let’s hit some longshots again tonight so everybody eats and eats well.

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Where to Watch Red Sox vs Yankees Game 2

• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium 
• Location: The Bronx, New York
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
• Time: 6:08 p.m. ET
• Spread: NYY -1.5 (+120) | Total: 7.5
• Moneyline: BOS +150 | TOR -178

BOS vs NYY Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Longshot Bet 1: Jazz Chisholm Home Run +450

If you’re shopping for a power prop with value tonight, Jazz Chisholm Jr. fits the mold. The Yankees’ second baseman has thrived in the Bronx this season, hitting .277 at home—70 points higher than on the road—with a .528 slugging percentage and an .893 OPS that’s nearly 160 points stronger than his away mark. That bump in power production pairs perfectly with his history against Boston starter Brayan Bello. In 17 career plate appearances, Chisholm owns a .333 average (5-for-15) with a homer, four singles, and a .533 slugging percentage against the right-hander.

Chisholm’s 2025 profile also screams longshot upside. He’s launched 31 homers this year with an .813 OPS, fueled by a 91st percentile barrel rate and 84th percentile xSLG. When he connects, the ball jumps—averaging 89 mph off the bat with a 43.3% hard-hit rate. Bello, meanwhile, is a candidate for regression. His expected ERA sits at 4.42, more than a run above his actual, and he allows a .264 xBA that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league. He doesn’t generate much swing-and-miss, leaving him exposed to hitters like Chisholm, who can punish mistakes.

At +450, you’re betting on a perfect storm: a lefty bat with pull-side pop, a favorable home split, and a pitcher who struggles to avoid hard contact. For a Wild Card longshot, the upside is exactly what you want.

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Where to Watch Reds vs Dodgers Game 2

• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium 
• Location: Los Angeles, California
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
• Time: 9:08 p.m. ET
• Spread: LAD -1.5 (-130) | Total: 8
• Moneyline: CIN +220 | LAD -270

CIN vs LAD Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Longshot Bet 2: Reds Under 1.5 Runs +250

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the exact type of arm that makes life miserable for an offense like Cincinnati’s. The Dodgers’ ace has been dominant wire to wire in 2025, putting up a 12-8 record with a 2.49 ERA, 201 strikeouts, and a 0.99 WHIP. The underlying metrics paint him as even more untouchable: 94th percentile xERA, 91st percentile xBA against, and a fastball run value that ranks among the very best in the league. He already silenced the Reds once this year, holding them to just a single run over seven innings, and his pitch mix is designed to exploit hitters who struggle to make hard contact.

That’s where the Reds come in. Cincinnati ranked bottom third across every meaningful category in 2025—.245 batting average (19th), .391 slugging (21st), .245 xBA (fifth-worst), and a .360 xwOBACON that was second-to-last in MLB. Their quality of contact was no better, posting just a 7.2% barrel rate and a 38.2% hard-hit rate, both bottom three in baseball. Against pitchers like Yamamoto, who sit in the 87th percentile for barrel suppression, that profile translates into quiet nights.

The Dodgers held Cincinnati to three or fewer runs in four of six meetings this season, and Yamamoto’s dominance raises the bar even higher. At +250, the Under 1.5 runs becomes a sharp angle—one that banks on the Reds’ weaknesses colliding head-on with a pitcher perfectly built to shut them down. 

If you are feeling even spicier, you can look at a shutout where the Reds under 0.5 runs pays out at +630. While it may seem tempting, I’m satisfied staying with our play.

Longshot Bet 3: Max Muncy to Record 2+ RBI +370

A high-upside prop I like is picking Max Muncy to drive in multiple runs at +370, which is worth a serious look. Despite being limited to 100 games in 2025, Muncy still produced 19 home runs and 67 RBI in just 313 at-bats, flashing the kind of run-producing power that changes games. His .470 slugging percentage and .846 OPS only tell part of the story—his advanced metrics are elite. A .522 xSLG ranks in the top 8% of MLB, his .388 xwOBA sits in the top 5%, and his 51.5% hard-hit rate puts him among the game’s best.

The splits are where this bet gets even stronger. Muncy was a different hitter at Dodger Stadium this year, posting a .975 OPS and a .571 slugging percentage—numbers that dwarf his .714 OPS and .360 slugging mark on the road. He’s also handled right-handed pitching with ease, slugging .514 with a .929 OPS and hitting .267, compared to just .567 OPS and .162 average against lefties. That’s a massive swing in profile, and it sets him up well against Reds righty Zack Littell.

The matchup data gives us even more confidence. Muncy is 2-for-5 lifetime against Littell with both hits leaving the yard, good for a .400 average, .500 OBP, and a ridiculous 1.600 slugging percentage. Hitting in the cleanup spot, the former Oakland Athletic should get plenty of looks at Littell, or any bullpen arm that comes in after Cincy’s starter.

When you combine Muncy’s power profile, home-field splits, and history against tonight’s starter, the path to cashing a 2+ RBI ticket at +370 becomes clear.

MLB Wild Card Top Longshot Bets for Wednesday

• Jazz Chisholm Home Run +450
• Reds Under 1.5 Runs +250
• Max Muncy to Record 2+ RBI +370

If you are looking for a nice payoff, one of these three options is your ticket. Even though it has the longest odds, Chisholm going deep is my favorite play of the night, while I can really see Cincinnati struggling to score runs. For even more action, you can parlay these plays into a ticket paying out at +8948. It could be worth a flyer on Wild Card Hump Day.