Every NFL Week 18 Clinching Scenario | Most Likely Teams To Make the NFL Playoffs Right Now

They say it’s the journey, not the destination. In the NFL, they don’t. The destination is the playoffs, and nothing else matters. As postseason odds have come off the board, spreads and moneylines are there gauging which two teams will make up the final spots in football’s biggest tournament.

We will look at the odds for who will be the next AFC North and NFC South champions, and at every Week 18 clinching scenario.

There’s just one regular-season week left, so enjoy and drink in the final full slate of NFL action until September.

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NFC South Title and No. 4 NFC Seed

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) will host the Carolina Panthers (8-8) with everything on the line in the opening game of Week 18 on Saturday. Tampa limps in losers of four straight and eight of its past 10, including a 23-20 Week 16 defeat in Charlotte. If Carolina pulls off the road win, they are NFC South champs and the fourth seed in the conference.

If the Bucs win, things start to get a little dicey, and you’ll have to dive into the NFL rule book. Should Tampa get the victory, they also need the eliminated New Orleans Saints (6-10) to beat the eliminated Atlanta Falcons (7-9). However, if Atlanta can pick up its fourth straight win, six days after knocking off the Los Angeles Rams, the Falcons spoil the Bucs playoff dreams. All three teams would be knotted at 8-9, and Carolina would have the best head-to-head record among all three NFC South squads.

Start your engines.

Panthers vs Bucs Betting Odds

Spread: CAR +3 (-120) | TB -3 (-102)
Total: Over 44.5 (-105) | Under (-115)
Moneyline: CAR +124 | TB -146

Panthers vs Bucs Kalshi Odds

Chance: TB 56% | ATL 44%
Spread: TB -2.5 Yes (53¢) | No (49¢)
Total: Over 44.5 Yes (50¢) | No (53¢)

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

NFC West Title and No. 1 NFC Seed

The San Francisco 49ers look to continue their hot streak with destiny in their own hands as they host the Seattle Seahawks Saturday night. San Fran comes in as winners of six straight and beat Seattle, 17-13, in the opening week of the season. Seattle has also won six in a row.

A first-round bye and the title for the toughest division in football are on the line on Saturday night. Winner gets next week off, loser heads to the wild card tumbler.

Seahawks vs 49ers Betting Odds

Spread: SEA -3.5 (-102) | SF +1.5 (-120)
Total: Over 49.5 (-115) | Under (-105)
Moneyline: SEA -112 | SF -104

Seahawks vs 49ers Kalshi Odds

Chance: SEA 51% | SF 49%
Spread: OTB
Total: OTB

NFC No. 2 and 3 Seeds: Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles

A pair of teams that battled to a 24-15 Week 13 decision in Pennsylvania will be the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the NFC. Which will be which between the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles is still up in the air.

An Eagles home victory as -6.5-point favorites over the Washington Commanders will help take the sting out of dropping that Week 13 contest to the Bears, but only if Chicago loses this weekend. Should the Bears drop their home contest to the Detroit Lions as -2.5 favorites, in a game where Dan Campbell may be fighting for his coaching life, the Eagles could fly to No. 2. Chicago drops to the No. 3 seed if they lose and Philly gets it done.

NFC Wildcard Seeding No. 4 to No. 7

The NFC wild card gridlock is pure December drama—three teams, two prized slots, and a headache for anyone tracking tiebreakers. Here’s where we stand:

The Green Bay Packers are locked in at the No. 7 seat—no drama, just waiting for their dance partner. But above them, it’s a knife fight.

Whoever stumbles in the NFC West showdown tumbles into the wild card pool:

Seahawks: Lose to San Francisco, and they snag the No. 5 seed—no chance at No. 6, just a straight slide into fifth.
49ers: If they lose to Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams lose to the Arizona Cardinals, they back into No. 5. But if the Rams handle business as 7.5-point favorites, the Niners drop to No. 6.
Rams: Win over the Cardinals and a 49ers loss? L.A. vaults to No. 5—easy as that. But if the Rams win and the Niners also win, or if the Rams slip up against Arizona, it’s the No. 6 slot for Sean McVay’s crew.

So, to sum it up: Green Bay’s already RSVP’d for the seven spot. Seattle’s rooting for chaos. L.A. just needs to take care of business and check the scoreboard. By Sunday night, the wild card pecking order will finally make sense—or at least, as much sense as anything does in the NFC this year.

AFC North Title and No. 4 AFC Seed

To close the NFL regular season, the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens, literally everything on the line. No funky tiebreakers, win and you’re in on Sunday night.

Baltimore took care of business in their must-win Week 17 affair in Green Bay, on the back of Derrick Henry. With Lamar Jackson out, the King rushed for a ridiculous 216 yards and four TDs in the 41-24 statement victory.

The Steelers’ offense, on the other hand, looked absolutely lifeless without the suspended DK Metcalf in their 13-6 road loss to the Cleveland Browns. In a game, Pittsburgh could have put away the division; they left the door wide open, with a possible Lamar return on the horizon.

Pittsburgh picked up the 27-23 Week 14 win in Baltimore, but was paced by Metcalf’s seven catches for a game-high 148 receiving yards. If the Steelers lose and miss the playoffs, it’s hard to imagine DK will ever see black and yellow on his jersey again.

Ravens vs Steelers Betting Odds

Spread: BAL -3.5 (-105) | PIT +3.5 (-115)
Total: Over 41.5 (-105) | Under (-115)
Moneyline: BAL -180 | PIT +152

Ravens vs Steelers Kalshi Odds

Chance: BAL 62% | PIT 38%
Spread: BAL -3.5 Yes (48¢) | No (53¢)
Total: Over 40.5 Yes (54¢) | No (50¢)

AFC South Title

The Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) and Houston Texans (11-5) are both heading to the playoffs, and either can clinch the AFC South crown. Trevor Lawrence and crew still hold their own destiny in their hands. Suppose they beat the lowly Tennessee Titans, division done. However, if Tennessee can play spoiler against their long-time familiar foe as +11.5-point road dogs, it opens the door for CJ Stroud‘s bunch. Should the Jags, well, choke, and the No. 1 defense in football powers Houston to a home victory over the Indianapolis Colts as -11.5 favorites, the division flag flies Texas proud.

AFC No. 1 Seed

The Denver Broncos (13-3) are in the driver’s seat to earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye. If the Broncos can get by the Justin Herbert-less Los Angeles Chargers as -11.5-point home favorites, they relax, heal, and prepare next week.

Should LA pull off the upset and the New England Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins as 10.5-point home favorites, Drake Maye‘s squad gets a week off before the postseason.

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, Denver somehow gets beat as -820 moneyline favorites, the Pats are upset with a -670 price tag, and Jacksonville gets past the Titans. The Jags are the AFC’s top dog.

If all three massive favorites get beaten, the Broncos still come out cleaner on the other side than Andy Dufresne polishing up his boat in Zihuatanejo.

AFC No. 2 and 3 Seeds

The AFC playoff chessboard isn’t just about the top dog—there’s a whole lot of jockeying for the No. 2 and 3 seeds, and it’s a tiebreaker fever dream. Here’s how it shakes out depending on who nabs that coveted No. 1 slot:

Broncos Lock Up No. 1 if Denver handles business. The rest of the AFC pecking order comes down to what happens with the Patriots, Jaguars, and Texans:

Patriots win, Jaguars win: Pats take the No. 2, Jags slide into the third chair.
Patriots win, Jaguars lose, Texans win: Pats still No. 2, Houston grabs No. 3.
Patriots lose, Jaguars win: Jags leapfrog for the No. 2, Pats settle for No. 3.
Patriots lose, Jaguars lose, Texans win: Pats snag No. 2, Texans round out the top three.

Patriots Jump to No. 1 if Denver slips and New England wins top spot, it’s musical chairs for the next two seeds:

Jaguars win: Jags take No. 2, Broncos at No. 3.
Jaguars lose, Texans win: Broncos bounce back to No. 2, Texans at No. 3.
Jaguars lose, Texans lose: Broncos stay at No. 2, Jags hold on to No. 3.

Jaguars Steal No. 1 If the Jags pull off the wild double—win their game while both Denver and New England eat losses—Denver lands at No. 2, and the Patriots get the bronze.

AFC No. 5, 6, and 7 Seeds

The back half of the AFC playoff bracket is a traffic jam with four teams fighting for three spots, and the math is just about as tangled as rush hour in Houston. Here’s how the wild card mess shakes out for each contender:

If Jacksonville loses and Houston wins, the Jags drop to the No. 5 seed.

Houston’s got a menu of maybes:

No. 5 seed: Texans win, and Jaguars win, or Texans lose while both the Bills and Chargers also lose.
No. 6 seed: Texans lose, and either the Bills or Chargers win.
No. 7 seed: Texans lose, and both Bills and Chargers win.

Chargers L.A.’s odds come down to the scoreboard shuffle:

No. 5 seed: Chargers win, and Texans lose.
No. 6 seed: Chargers win, and Texans win.
No. 7 seed: Chargers lose, and Bills win.

Buffalo’s fate is in their own hands, mostly:

No. 5 seed: Bills win, Texans lose, Chargers lose.
No. 6 seed: Bills win, and either the Texans or Chargers lose, or Bills win, Texans win, Chargers win, and Jaguars lose.
No. 7 seed: Bills lose.

In a nutshell, it’s a playoff game of musical chairs, and someone’s about to be left standing when the music stops. Watch for late drama—one upset, and the whole bracket gets a fresh coat of chaos.