Orioles & Corbin Burnes are a Match Made in Betting Heaven

The Baltimore Orioles knew precisely what they were doing. Through years of struggling, the O’s cultivated some of the top prospects in baseball. More importantly, the organization took the time to develop that talent properly, taking a patient approach in the minor leagues and letting players enhance their skills rather than rushing them to the majors.

Unexpected Success

Then, in 2023, it all came together. Baltimore captured its first division title in nearly ten years, with Gunnar Henderson claiming AL Rookie of the Year and Brandon Hyde being named Manager of the Year. 

As with any young roster, some hard lessons were learned in the postseason. The Orioles were swept out of the postseason in the Divisional Round, losing in three straight to the eventual World Series Champion Texas Rangers. 

Missing Piece

Understanding the implications of roster construction, the O’s brass went out and made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason. In doing so, the Orioles have cemented themselves as legitimate playoff contenders, thanks to their offseason acquisition of Corbin Burnes. 

In acquiring Burnes, the Orioles set themselves up for ongoing team success while thrusting Burnes to the top of the AL Cy Young pile. 

Burnes’ Winning Pedigree

Over the past few seasons, Burnes has established himself as one of the best pitchers in the bigs. The former fourth-round pick had made an All-Star appearance in each of the past three seasons, winning the 2021 NL Cy Young as the ace of the Milwaukee Brewers rotation.

Since then, Burnes has dominated MLB batters to the tune of a 2.93 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Further, his 36 wins and 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings make him one of the most consistent arms over that stretch. 

Flying Higher with the Orioles

Somehow, Burnes has elevated his profile even higher in Baltimore. Through five starts, the 29-year-old is a perfect 3-0 with his new squad, churning out a 2.76 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, albeit with a slightly diminished 8.9 K/9 rate.

Predictably, Burnes has the underlying analytics supporting ongoing success. His 2.83 expected ERA is on par with actual, and he continues to deliver above-average strikeout metrics. 

Betting Favorite

Still, Burnes’s AL Cy Young betting price doesn’t accurately reflect his chances of claiming this year’s award. 

A month into the season, the O’s ace is priced out front at an appealing +470. That gives Burnes an implied probability of 17.5% to become the eighth player in MLB history to win a Cy Young in both leagues. 

But with players like Luis Castillo, Kevin Gausman, and George Kirby starting as slowly as they have, Burnes should be well out in front. 

Orioles Futures Positions

Moreover, Burnes solves one of the Orioles’ most prominent issues from last season. His postseason experience settles an anxious and untested group, improving the team’s dynamic in the regular season and playoffs. 

Again, that leaves an edge in backing Baltimore in any of the futures markets. The Orioles are +200 to win the AL East, +550 to vanquish the AL half of the bracket come playoff time, and +1100 to win it all. 

Final Thoughts: The Time is Now for the Orioles

There are bettor-friendly positions to take in any one of those markets. 

Corbin Burnes has gotten out in front of the rest of the pack in the AL Cy Young market, but his betting price and implied probability are short of where they should be. 

Similarly, the Orioles should be further ahead in the AL East and AL Championship markets, sitting more appropriately on the World Series futures board. 

This is no fluke. The Orioles have taken the time to build a contender, using the offseason acquisition of Burnes to expedite their championship window.

Stop tempering expectations. The Orioles are ready to fly high. 

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