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Exploring Value in NL Pennant Odds: Padres, Mets Lead

The Mets! Another winner for us on the Mets ML, as they dominated the Phillies in Game 3. We have hit six of our last seven picks; our profit in the playoffs is up to +6.6 units.
<h2 id="h-philadelphia-phillies-vs-new-york-mets-5-08-pm-est" class="wp-block-heading">Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets @ 5:08 PM EST</h2>
<h4 id="h-pitching-matchup-ranger-suarez-3-46-era-vs-jose-quintana-3-75-era" class="wp-block-heading">Pitching Matchup: Ranger Suarez (3.46 ERA) vs. Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA)</h4>
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I think the Phillies are done.
We’ll review the numbers and everything, but that was my immediate reaction after watching game three.
They came back for a fantastic win in game two, but the Mets have dominated this series outside of that. The Mets also know they have a date with <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/mlb/players/zachary-wheeler/58489">Zack Wheeler</a> for Game 5 in Philadelphia if they lose. While the Phillies are on the brink of elimination, the Mets will do everything they can to avoid Wheeler at the Bank, and I think they will do just that.
It pains me to do this because I think the world of <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/mlb/players/ranger-suarez/58486">Ranger Suarez</a>. We have bet on him many times in the playoffs and ended up on top most of the time. I love the man, but I’ve also said this 100 times. When Ranger is on a heater, you tail him and don’t think twice. When Ranger is not on a heater, it’s time to fade. 
Suarez is a tale of two halves. He started the year on a tear and finished the first half with a 2.76 ERA. That is the Ranger we know and love. The second half was riddled with injuries, and he wasn’t effective, putting up a 5.65 ERA.
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The month of September was especially rough for Ranger. He averaged just over four innings a start and put up a 6.04 ERA. I love Ranger so much that even if his last start was a good one, I’d be wary of fading him. It was the worst start of the month, going two innings and allowing six runs to the Nationals.
He’s a guy who feeds off momentum, and when you mess with that, things can go south. He has a 3.95 career ERA with six days of rest or more, which isn’t bad, but it’s worse than his 3.34 ERA on regular rest.
<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/mlb/players/jose-quintana/58402">Jose Quintana</a> is on a different path right now; the man is on a heater. He put up a 3.18 ERA in the second half. In September, he threw 25 innings and allowed only two earned runs for a 0.72 ERA. He carried that into his first start against Milwaukee, tossing six shutout innings. He’s a veteran who doesn’t let the moment get to him.
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He also has solid numbers against the Phillies historically. Over 199 PA against the Phillies’ current roster, he has posted a .245 opponent batting average with a .326 xwOBA. He faced the Phillies in September at the Bank, and it went beautifully, tossing seven shutout innings. He’s built for this.
It’s impossible to cap these bullpens. Neither team has complete confidence in either unit, and both teams can hit every arm. I’m banking on the Mets building a lead and finding a way to close it out.
The Phillies’ drop-off on the road is apparent. They went 41-40 this year on the road, and in their first test, they folded. I don’t see them magically bouncing back in this one. As long as the Mets are the underdog, they are the play.
<h3 id="h-the-pick-mets-ml-100-risk-1-unit" class="wp-block-heading">The Pick: Mets ML (+100) Risk 1 Unit</h3>
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By <a class="entry__author-link underline-on-hover font-bold has-teal-border-bottom" href="https://www.justbaseball.com/author/peter-appel/">Peter Appel</a>
The post <a href="https://www.justbaseball.com/betting/division-series-best-bets-yankees-vs-royals-mets-vs-phillies-picks-for-wednesday-october-9-2024/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Division Series Best Bets: Yankees vs Royals, Mets vs. Phillies Picks for Wednesday, October 9, 2024</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.justbaseball.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Just Baseball</a>.

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The Mets face the Phillies with a chance to avoid a Game 5. Dive into the pitching stats for Ranger Suarez and Jose Quintana, and see why the Mets have value.

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