Returning Ace Could be Key to Rays’ Season

Not long ago, Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Shane McClanahan was one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball.

Full stop. Not just left-handers; one of the best pitchers in the world. He flashed promise as a 24-year-old rookie, but it wasn’t until his sophomore campaign where he took the baseball world by storm. In 28 starts, he posted a 2.54 ERA with a 3.00 FIP and a 30.3% strikeout rate in 166.1 innings.

He made the 2022 American League All-Star team and finished sixth in Cy Young Award voting. He then followed that up with another All-Star campaign in 2023, posting a 3.29 ERA across 115 innings.

That was the last time we saw him. The date was August 2, 2023, at Yankee Stadium. Then a 26-year-old, McClanahan allowed five earned across four innings in what was our last taste of the left-hander in a game that counted.

Shohei Ohtani was a Los Angeles Angel, Juan Soto was a San Diego Padre, and Miguel Cabrera was still an active MLB player. Safe to say a lot’s changed.

Let’s return to the present. The American League East is loaded, with the reigning MLB runner-up Toronto Blue Jays coming off a busy winter, the Boston Red Sox loaded up on the bump, the Baltimore Orioles got busy — including trading with the Rays for right-hander Shane Baz. Additionally, the New York Yankees roll out of bed and win 90-plus games.

No one is bearing any mind to the Rays. A mistake? Maybe not in mid-March. But the now 28-year-old McClanahan can do a lot to change the narrative for his team.

But Don’t Expect It Right Away

No matter how talented McClanahan is, there will always be rust and growing pains as he gets re-acclimated to a consistent MLB workload.

Even at his best, McClanahan’s fastball was hardly a dominant offering. It was hardly a bad pitch, but among the 61 pitchers with at least 1,500 four seamers between 2022 and 2023, it was middle of the pack in opponent batting average (.253) and had the 41st-ranked wOBA against.

However, his secondaries were truly elite. His changeup racked up a 54.4% whiff rate and .161 wOBA against in 2023, following a 44.6% whiff rate and .154 wOBA against in 2022. His curveball was also nasty both seasons.

So, while he’s going to hit some growing pains as 2026 wears on, a lot of that will show on his secondaries. Especially his changeup, which is such a feel pitch to begin with. He’s barely thrown it in three years; it’s going to take some time to find it again.

Balanced Rotation in Need of an Ace

According to FanGraphs, the Rays’ rotation is anchored by right-handers Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot before getting to McClanahan, Nick Martinez, and Steven Matz.

While Rasmussen is routinely one of the game’s most underrated arms, and Pepiot’s got one of the best changeups in the sport, it’s clear the Rays lack that headline arm on Day 1 they typically have. Ironically, the last time they had that marquee arm, it was McClanahan.

On paper, however, it’s still a solid rotation for Tampa Bay. Matz hasn’t had success as a starter in a few years but figured it out last year as a reliever and has a track record of success in the role. Martinez, ideally, is more of a swingman but also capable of eating innings. Rasmussen and Pepiot are also going to keep Tampa Bay in most of their starts.

McClanahan is the difference between this rotation being just average, good, or even great.

Projections like the southpaw in his return to MLB. Despite missing the past two seasons, Steamer projects him at a 3.35 ERA and 3.37 FIP across 142 innings pitched. His projected 3.2 fWAR is also expected to lead the Rays rotation.

What Does a Great Rotation Mean for Rays’ Season?

Look, the Rays will always find ways to pitch themselves into a ballgame, the last two years notwithstanding.

On paper, the bullpen is fine. Not great, but high-leverage arms like Griffin Jax and Garrett Cleavinger should be able to button up a close game more often than not. The offense, while not deep, is exceptionally talented at the top with Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, and Jonathan Aranda.

The rotation’s performance, quite literally, might be the difference between being a bottom-10 team in the league and potential wild card hopeful. The AL East will be a gauntlet, and while foolish to dismiss a team before the season, it’s likely wild card or bust for the Rays if they want to make the postseason.

If the Rays rotation can win them some ballgames, especially early on, that makes things really interesting come trade deadline season. They have the talent on paper. They have two very good righties at the top, and two solid innings eaters at the bottom. The last we saw of the remaining starter, he was among the best arms in the game.

If he can return to form, this could be a Cinderella-type season for the Rays in their return to Tropicana Field.

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