Rockies vs. Mets Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets 

I’m lifting two bans here. I banned the Colorado Rockies, and I banned betting against Grimmace. Those bans will become rock-solid if this play doesn’t hit, but it has to.

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New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies Game Info

Time: 8:40 PM EST | Pitching Matchup: Luis Severino (3.93 ERA) vs. Kyle Freeland (5.64 ERA)

The Rockies could be better, but they work their voodoo magic in spots like this. It starts with a classic spot, a road team traveling in without an off-day to play the Rockies at home. Over the last 123 games in this spot, the Rockies are 75-48 (61%) for a fantastic 27% ROI. That’s on the +1.5, not the ML, where they are still profitable, but not as much.

I have more faith in the Rockies offense showing up, considering this is Luis Severino’s first career start in Coors Field. Generally, it is a good idea to fade a pitcher making his first start at altitude. The altitude affects velocity and horizontal and vertical movement. He’s never pitched a place that limits stuff, and I can’t imagine it goes all that well.

The Rockies’ offense has been excellent lately, putting up a 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the All-Star break. It’s rare to see the Rockies with a split above 100, considering wRC+ docks them a lot for the run environment. If we look at OPS during that span, they rank 8th. In 188 PA at home against righties since the break, they have a .925 OPS; that’s elite.

The Mets get Kyle Freeland today. He’s having a bizarre year. He has a 1.88 ERA at home this year and an 8.23 ERA on the road. He was slightly better at home last year, and he gets the Mets, which are struggling against lefties right now. Since the break, they have an 88 wRC+, ranking 20th in the league.

Freeland has only made four home starts, but he has yet to exceed 3.5 earned runs in six straight games at home dating back to last year (1.5 earned runs/game average). He’s also been excellent since he returned from the IL, throwing 43 innings to a 2.93 ERA. I think he can catch this Mets team sleeping.

Beyond traveling to Coors, the schedule makers did not do this Mets team any favors. This is their third straight game in three different cities. They played the Los Angeles Angels on West Coast time, flew to St Louis Cardinals for a makeup game, and then to Colorado without an off day. It’s just a crappy spot for them.

The Mets hold the bullpen edge, especially with Jose Butto. Truthfully, I’ve come to love Jose Butto; he always dominates. However, he is at Coors, so anything can happen. The Rockies bullpen is also completely rested after an off-day, for what that’s worth.

I thought about going with the first five, but I’m following this system on the run line. The Rockies are 5-1 in their last six games at home on the run line. It’s a great price, and I think the Rockies have a great shot at winning, but they can lose by one, and we will still win.

The Pick: Rockies +1.5 (-110) Risk 1.1 Units