The Phillies Are Still the Phillies in All the Most Important Ways

The Philadelphia Phillies are off to a sluggish start. Only two NL teams have given up more runs per game, and only two have scored fewer. Only one MLB team ranks worse than Philadelphia in both categories: the Chicago White Sox.

The Phillies were supposed to be better than this. Right?

Yes. And they will be.

We knew this team was going to have a top-heavy lineup. The Phillies’ offense is the Bryce Harper–Kyle Schwarber–Trea Turner show.

So far, Harper (153 wRC+) and Schwarber (149 wRC+) have delivered. Turner (87 wRC+) has yet to turn it on, and he’s a major X-factor for the offense; Justin Crawford (151 wRC+) won’t keep batting .341, and Turner needs to help replace that production as Crawford’s numbers regress.

As long as Harper, Schwarber, and Turner all produce, the top-heavy approach can work. Part of the reason it hasn’t been enough so far is that the Phillies are getting nothing from some of the guys who need to be average performers.

Thankfully, Bryson Stott (39 wRC+) and Alec Bohm (33 wRC+) can’t possibly continue to slump this badly. As long as those two start performing like competent major leaguers they are, the Phillies should see a massive increase in offensive production.

Speaking of positive regression, Philadelphia’s hitters will surely improve upon their collective .269 BABIP. Since their first season in Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies have never produced a BABIP lower than .283. Their median BABIP in those 23 seasons is .293, similar to where the league average tends to hover. Only four teams in the 21st century have finished a full season with a BABIP under .270.

What’s more, FanGraphs’ BaseRuns – which estimates expected runs scored or allowed using very simple inputs (hits, home runs, stolen bases, etc.) and a much more complicated formula – suggests the Phillies have had the most unlucky offense in the league.

The BaseRuns formula tells us they ‘deserve’ to have scored 4.23 runs per game. That’s still not great (MLB average right now is 4.33), but it’s seven-tenths of a run more than they’re currently averaging.

That works out to an extra 10.5 runs over the 15 games they’ve played. Spread those out generously, and the Phillies could have won four more contests in 2026. That would tie them with the Dodgers for MLB’s best record. And that’s without giving them any credit to adjust for their bad luck on balls in play.

I’m playing fast and loose with the numbers now, but I’m doing it to make a point.

From their record and run differential, the Phillies don’t look like a two-time reigning division champion with a top-five payroll. Yet, if just a few more of their batted balls had dropped in for hits, if just a few more of their extra-base hits came with runners on base, if they hadn’t already dropped three one-run games, etc., etc., etc… the Phillies could have the best record in baseball.

Oh, and the pitching staff is pretty good too.

Philadelphia’s pitchers have been so much more dominant than their 4.16 ERA suggests. The Phillies rank first in the NL in xERA, FIP, and DRA. They’re first in the majors in xFIP, SIERA, and Stuff+.

No team in the Senior Circuit has struck out more opponents. No team in baseball has issued fewer walks. The Phillies have the league’s highest groundball rate too, and they’re the only staff to rank among the top five in all three of barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity.

Should I keep going? Because I can keep going. No team has been better at getting opponents to chase outside the zone. No team has been better at limiting pulled contact. No team has been better at preventing fast swings (75 mph bat speed).

It’s still early enough in the season to take all these numbers with a grain of salt, but every piece of evidence we have (except for, well, the actual runs that have crossed the plate) tells us that Philadelphia’s pitching staff could carry this team all the way to the World Series.

Cristopher Sánchez seems to be dead set on getting better every year. Even a runner-up finish for the NL Cy Young in 2025 wasn’t good enough for him. Paul Skenes will make him earn the title, but there’s a very real case that Sánchez is the best pitcher in the National League right now.

Aaron Nola has looked healthy and solid as the number two, while Jesús Luzardo’s high ERA obscures the elite underlying numbers that earned him a six-figure extension.

Rookie Andrew Painter’s long-awaited debut has been as successful as any Phillies fan could have expected thus far; all six pitches in his diverse arsenal have helped him limit walks, limit hard contact, and give his team a chance to win.

While he struggled in his second start against the Giants, Painter sandwiched that outing between two masterful performances against the Nationals and Diamondbacks.

The only problem in the rotation has been Taijuan Walker, and there’s no sugar-coating that one. The 33-year-old has looked just as beleaguered on the mound as he did the last two years.

However, Zack Wheeler is only two rehab starts away from rejoining the Phillies. That means he could be back in time to face the Braves in Atlanta toward the end of the month.

Thanks to an off day this Thursday, the Phillies might only need Walker to make one more start before Wheeler returns. They can survive that. And then, in less than two weeks, a rotation that already has some of the best peripherals in the majors will get back one of the defining aces of the decade.

Sure, Wheeler is something of a wild card. He’s nearly 36, and he’ll be coming back from major surgery. However, Philadelphia already has a postseason-calibre one through four in Sánchez, Nola, Luzardo, and Painter. Of course the Phillies are hoping Wheeler will pick up right where he left off, but really, he only has to be better than Walker to improve the team.

The bullpen is also in a great spot, with a respectable 3.47 ERA, and, like the rotation, much stronger underlying numbers. Jhoan Duran is a beast at the back end. Setup men José Alvarado Brad Keller have been hit around, but their track records and their stuff indicate it isn’t time to panic.

Tim Mayza, on the other hand, might be due for regression in the opposite direction, but to his credit, the veteran has looked sharp. If he does falter, Tanner Banks is around to be another trustworthy lefty.

Meanwhile, Orion Kerkering is back from the injured list, offering manager Rob Thomson one more high-leverage righty.

And if he needs another?

Jonathan Bowlan’s early results suggest the Phillies knew exactly what they were doing when they traded for him. He’s currently on the IL with a groin strain, but hopefully it’s a short stint. The 29-year-old is looking like the next Caleb Cotham success story in the making.

Duran alone gives this bullpen a high floor, and the rest of the arms have the talent to make it a top-five bullpen in the sport. Considering the starters should be passing off plenty of leads, there’s little reason not to be optimistic about the Phillies’ staff as a whole.

This started as an article about how badly the Phillies were missing Zack Wheeler. I saw the team’s 7-8 record. I saw their -16 run differential. I saw their rotation’s 4.68 ERA, and I knew I didn’t want to watch any more Taijuan Walker. I thought the Phillies were struggling, and I thought Wheeler was the answer.

Now, after looking under the hood, I’m not anywhere near as concerned. I’m still antsy for Wheeler to return, but it’s not because he needs to be the Phillies’ saviour. I’m just excited to see how good this team can be at full strength.

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