Tigers vs. Rangers: Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay

Losers of six in a row, the Detroit Tigers are desperately trying to pump the brakes on their recent skid. Thankfully, they are sending their ace, Tarik Skubal, out to the mound for the series finale versus the Texas Rangers. The Rangers’ staff has shut down the AL Central leaders early in this series, but we’re betting on a fierce effort from the Tigers on Sunday Night Baseball. 

These are the picks we’re targeting with your Sunday night Same Game Parlay!

Where to Watch Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers

• Ballpark: Globe Life Field
• Location: Arlington, TX
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Spread: DET -1.5 | Total: 7
• Moneyline: DET -188 | TEX +158

Leg 1: Tigers -188

The advantage Tarik Skubal gives the Detroit Tigers is far greater than the -188 price tag implies. Not only is Skubal the AL Cy Young frontrunner, but he’s also been so dominant that he’s being included in the AL MVP conversation. Naturally, the Tigers’ ace should have no problem stymying the Rangers on Sunday night.

Skubal’s analytics profile is one of the best in the bigs. He ranks among the top 10% of pitchers in virtually every category, punctuated by 2.43 expected ERA (96th percentile), 3.5% walk rate (99th percentile), and his 32.3% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile). 

Moreover, the Rangers don’t possess the offensive firepower to get to Skubal. Their .673 OPS is the fourth-worst in the MLB. Predictably, that correlates with the eighth-fewest runs and the seventh-fewest extra-base hits. More concerningly, all of those benchmarks take a hit at Globe Life Field. 

While some bettors may be drawn to the under in this American League showdown, our preference is to get a piece of the Tigers at a bettor-friendly price. Tigers’ moneyline is our preferred entry point. 

Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.

Leg 2: Tarik Skubal to Record 9+ Strikeouts +138

Skubal’s dominance knows no limits, and that becomes even more evident when we dig into his strikeout metrics. We’re betting he flashes his Cy Young brilliance versus the Rangers. 

The southpaw has a five-pitch mix that he uses to handcuff opposing batters. Still, his changeup, four-seamer, and sinker are the pitches he relies on most. Altogether, Skubal generates a 33.6% whiff rate and a 34.1% chase rate, ranking in the 93rd and 94th percentile, respectively. Those factors contribute to a 33.4% strikeout rate or an 11.4 K/9 rate.

Additionally, Texas has a free-swinging mentality that is sure to benefit Skubal. The Rangers sit in the bottom half of the MLB in strikeouts and strikeout rate. Their standing in both categories has been negatively impacted by a remarkably tepid period. Over the past month, the Rangers have accumulated the eighth-most Ks and are walking back to the dugout 24.8% of the time. 

The Rangers’ strikeout woes will be on full display versus Skubal. We’re betting they fall victim to his elite offerings, with Skubal recording at least nine strikeouts.

Leg 3: Spencer Torkelson to Hit a Home Run +330

After years of falling short of expectations, Spencer Torkelson is finally starting to make strides at the plate. The Tigers’ first baseman has the best OPS of his career. But in reconciling his actual stats with expected metrics, Torkelson is a natural progression candidate in the latter stages of the campaign. 

The former first-overall pick in the MLB Draft has refined his approach at the plate this season. Torkelson rates as one of the premier hitters, as evidenced by his 14.8% barrel rate and 40.3% launch angle, sweet spot contact rate. Moreover, those benchmarks correlate with a .507 expected slugging percentage. Heading into tonight’s action, Torkelson is operating more than 20 points below that, implying that we should see immediate growth in his slugging percentage and extra-base hits. 

While Globe Life Field has one of the worst Park Factors ratings, it is a home run haven for power bats. It boasts the seventh-highest home run ranking, and Torkelson has the analytics profile to capitalize on it. At +330, we’re backing him as a home run hitter in tonight’s series finale. 

Tigers vs. Rangers: Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay Picks

• Tigers -188
• Tarik Skubal to Record 9+ Strikeouts +138
• Spencer Torkelson to Hit a Home Run +330

This loosely correlated approach should benefit bettors. Backing the Tigers outright, with Tarik Skubal to record nine or more strikeouts and Spencer Torkelson to hit a home run, could net bettors +930.