MLB · 1 year ago

Top 10 Candidates To Be Moved at the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline

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1. Luis Arraez: 2B, Miami Marlins
Miami made a significant move by trading right-hander Pablo López to acquire Luis Arraez from the Minnesota Twins before the 2022 season, aiming to boost their lackluster offense with their surplus of pitching talent.

Arraez clinched his second straight batting title in 2023. However, Kim Ng, the former general manager who orchestrated the trade, has since departed from Miami. She was succeeded last offseason by Peter Bendix, the new president of baseball operations. Despite making the playoffs as the National League's second Wild Card team a year ago, the Marlins have struggled significantly, ranking among the bottom five MLB teams in the early stages of this season. Believing in the possibility of better health for their star pitchers next year, the Marlins might opt to keep Arraez for a potential 2024 contention or consider trading him in the offseason.

Arraez's value is enhanced by his youth—at just 27, he tops more seasoned players like Bregman and Goldschmidt on certain lists. Trading for him this summer would benefit a team for two championship pursuits, as he isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2025 season. The Marlins stand to gain the most from trading him during this window.

Despite his achievements, Arraez has been criticized for his below-average defensive skills at second base, with a -5 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -7 Outs Above Average (OAA) already this season. However, his flexibility to play multiple positions—first base, third base, left field, and designated hitter—could attract a broader range of interested teams.

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This post appeared first on Just Baseball.
2. Alex Bregman: 3B, Houston Astros
There's still a possibility that the Astros could recover from their slow start and become buyers or maintain their roster as is by the trade deadline. However, if 2024 becomes a disappointing season, it might be wise for them to entertain trade offers for Alex Bregman, especially since there's a longstanding expectation that the Scott Boras client will likely seek a new team in free agency after the season.

Despite Bregman's success in Houston, the prospect of a new environment could prove beneficial after spending nearly nine seasons with the same team. A fresh start might invigorate Bregman, who has a notable postseason resume with 19 career home runs, making him an attractive target for contending teams should the Astros decide to explore trade options.

However, Bregman's performance this season raises some concerns, as he has only hit one home run and his OPS is below .600. If he doesn’t start performing better, it could be sensible for the Astros to retain him through the year and offer him a qualifying offer in the offseason. Should he accept the offer, great; if not, Houston could still benefit from draft pick compensation.
3. Paul Goldschmidt: 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
The start of the season has been particularly tough for the former National League MVP, a challenging period that deserves attention given that he’s 36 years old. At this point in his career, it’s natural to question whether Paul Goldschmidt is beginning to decline.

Nonetheless, Goldschmidt's performance last year, which included 25 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 87 walks, coupled with his strong defensive skills at first base, suggests that a rebound might be on the horizon. As he approaches 37 and faces the final year of his contract, the return the Cardinals might expect from a trade could be limited.

John Mozeliak, the team's president of baseball operations, may opt to retain Goldschmidt, hoping that the potential future Hall of Famer might accept a qualifying offer or agree to a short-term contract next winter. This is Goldschmidt's sixth season with St. Louis, following eight seasons with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and his legacy could benefit from spending an equal amount of time with the Cardinals.

However, Goldschmidt has yet to play in a World Series and his chances to do so are dwindling. If the Cardinals find themselves out of contention and Goldschmidt expresses a desire to chase a championship elsewhere, it would be appropriate for St. Louis to consider the wishes of their seven-time All-Star and facilitate his participation in a pennant race.
4. Ryan Helsley: Closer, St. Louis Cardinals
It remains uncertain how the Cardinals will approach their strategy as July approaches. However, if they find themselves out of playoff contention, it may signal a pivotal moment for John Mozeliak, the president of baseball operations, to contemplate a strategic pullback for the rest of the season with an eye towards restructuring in the offseason.

While it seems unlikely that future Hall of Fame third baseman Nolan Arenado, under contract until 2027, would be part of any trade, Paul Goldschmidt could potentially be on the trading block (as previously discussed). Another player worth watching is Ryan Helsley, who might become a focal point in trade discussions if the Cardinals decide to sell off assets this summer. Given that Helsley has another year of arbitration left and the organization aims to be competitive by 2025, retaining him could be advantageous unless his high-velocity pitching raises concerns about longevity and potential injuries.

For a team that's not performing well, a closer of Helsley’s caliber, who has maintained a stellar 1.69 ERA since the beginning of the 2022 season—ranking second among all qualified relievers—might be considered a luxury. Trading Helsley could thus serve the Cardinals' long-term interests better, maximizing returns that could benefit future team building.

Even for teams that typically avoid designating a single player as the closer, the opportunity to acquire Helsley if he is available would likely prompt serious consideration due to his exceptional performance.
5. Justin Verlander: RHP, Houston Astros
When the Astros brought Justin Verlander back from the New York Mets last summer, it appeared he might end his illustrious career in Houston—a fitting conclusion for the future Hall of Famer. However, whether this scenario will materialize remains uncertain.

Partly due to Verlander starting the season on the injured list, Houston has had a dismal beginning to 2024. Given their track record of seven consecutive appearances in the ALCS, the Astros are usually given the benefit of the doubt. Yet, even the most successful streaks must end at some point. This summer, General Manager Dana Brown and owner Jim Crane will have to assess the situation candidly. At 41, Verlander's future with the team is under scrutiny, particularly with a $35 million option for 2025 looming, which activates if he pitches 140 innings this season. Fortunately for Houston, if this option vests, the Mets are responsible for $17.5 million of it, making it financially easier for the Astros to retain the three-time AL Cy Young Award winner.

Conversely, the fact that Houston would only need to pay $17.5 million to keep Verlander next year—if the option vests—also enhances his value as a trade asset in a potentially weak market. Consequently, the Astros are likely to attract interest from multiple teams this summer for the former AL MVP.

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6. Tyler O’Neill: LF/RF, Boston Red Sox
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow faces a significant challenge in restoring the Red Sox to their previous levels of success, especially if the team's ownership doesn't resume its historical spending patterns.

Nonetheless, Breslow appears to have made an astute move this offseason by acquiring Tyler O'Neill from the St. Louis Cardinals following two seasons marred by injuries. Despite a brief absence due to a concussion, O'Neill has been relatively healthy and has excelled significantly. He currently leads the AL in slugging percentage (.658) and OPS (1.073) among players with at least 90 plate appearances. Defensively, O'Neill, a two-time Gold Glove Award winner, has adapted well to left field at Fenway Park. He also has experience in the other outfield positions and could comfortably play right field, which might be appealing to potential trade partners.

While the Red Sox might consider keeping O'Neill with the hopes of re-signing him or offering him a qualifying offer in the offseason, the interest from other teams suggests that the soon-to-be 29-year-old outfielder could be on the move this summer.
7. Jesús Luzardo: LHP, Miami Marlins
If Jesús Luzardo could replicate his performance from 2022 to 2023, where he posted a 3.48 ERA over 50 starts, he would likely be the top pitcher available on the market this summer. However, it's uncertain whether teams would get that version of Luzardo at the moment.

Luzardo's 2024 season has started off rocky, with a record of 0-2 and a 6.58 ERA and 5.06 FIP across his first five starts. He is currently on the injured list due to left elbow tightness.

Luzardo could potentially return from the injured list, hit his stride, and end up with a new team by the end of the summer. However, since he is under team control through the 2026 season, there is no immediate pressure to trade him. While it would be beneficial for the Marlins to capitalize on a potentially weak trade market this summer and get a strong return for Luzardo, selling him at a low point currently offers little incentive.
8. Erick Fedde: RHP, Chicago White Sox
A former first-round pick of the Washington Nationals, Erick Fedde secured a two-year, $15 million contract with the White Sox following a standout season in the KBO.

After achieving a 5.41 ERA and 5.17 FIP during parts of six seasons with D.C., Fedde has emerged as one of the few highlights in an otherwise dismal White Sox squad. He boasts a 2-0 record with a 2.60 ERA and 4.00 FIP across six starts. Given the limited talent on the roster, General Manager Chris Getz might be reluctant to trade away one of the team's few healthy and effective players, particularly since Fedde is signed through the next year.

However, considering the White Sox are far from being competitive and Fedde is already 31 years old, if a team offers a reasonable return, acknowledging the scarcity of quality pitching options and Fedde’s reasonable $7.5 million salary for the next season, the White Sox should consider trading him for a lower-tier prospect and hope it pays off.
9. Trevor Rogers: LHP, Miami Marlins
Trevor Rogers is one of the Marlins to appear on this list. Rogers presents a bit of a puzzle. His initial six starts this season yield a 4.31 ERA and a 3.39 FIP across 31 1/3 innings. He also shone brightly in 2021 as an All-Star and the runner-up for National League Rookie of the Year, finishing the year with an impressive 2.64 ERA and 4.3 fWAR over 133 innings.

Despite this, Rogers faced difficulties in 2022 and 2023, recording a 5-13 record with a 5.26 ERA and accumulating just 1.1 fWAR. Moreover, a left biceps strain severely limited his playing time to only 18 innings at the MLB level last year, leaving questions about his endurance for the latter part of 2024.

At only 26 years old and not eligible for free agency until post-2026, Rogers remains a potentially valuable asset. The Marlins are likely to trade him, though he seems to be more of a long-term investment than a quick fix. A team near playoff contention might see him as a strategic addition to their rotation for several seasons rather than merely a temporary solution for winning a championship in 2024.
10. Kenley Jansen: Closer, Boston Red Sox
Tanner Scott of the Miami Marlins was a contender for this spot, however, Kenley Jansen's superior performance early in the 2024 season has given him the edge.

Regarded as one of the best closers in MLB history, Jansen secured 29 saves last season, though his 3.63 ERA did not reflect his dominant years with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Still, he's only two years removed from an impressive 41-save season with the Atlanta Braves and has started off strong in 2024.

The critical issue for Jansen is whether a World Series-contending team will see him as a significant improvement over their existing closer. If he's not seen as a clear upgrade, would such a team be willing to acquire him—recently ranked fifth all-time in saves—to serve in a set-up role instead?

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This post appeared first on Just Baseball.
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1. Luis Arraez: 2B, Miami Marlins
Miami made a significant move by trading right-hander Pablo López to acquire Luis Arraez from the Minnesota Twins before the 2022 season, aiming to boost their lackluster offense with their surplus of pitching talent.

Arraez clinched his second straight batting title in 2023. However, Kim Ng, the former general manager who orchestrated the trade, has since departed from Miami. She was succeeded last offseason by Peter Bendix, the new president of baseball operations. Despite making the playoffs as the National League's second Wild Card team a year ago, the Marlins have struggled significantly, ranking among the bottom five MLB teams in the early stages of this season. Believing in the possibility of better health for their star pitchers next year, the Marlins might opt to keep Arraez for a potential 2024 contention or consider trading him in the offseason.

Arraez's value is enhanced by his youth—at just 27, he tops more seasoned players like Bregman and Goldschmidt on certain lists. Trading for him this summer would benefit a team for two championship pursuits, as he isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2025 season. The Marlins stand to gain the most from trading him during this window.

Despite his achievements, Arraez has been criticized for his below-average defensive skills at second base, with a -5 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -7 Outs Above Average (OAA) already this season. However, his flexibility to play multiple positions—first base, third base, left field, and designated hitter—could attract a broader range of interested teams.

Have all the intel you need? Free actionable info is one click away! Sign up for our daily newsletter.

This post appeared first on Just Baseball.

Top 10 Candidates To Be Moved at the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline

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