MLB · 10 months ago

World Series 2024 | Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 Predictions | Picks Today, Best Bets

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

World Series 2024 | Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 Predictions | Picks Today, Best Bets

Goliath vs Goliath. Tyson vs Ali. Welcome to Game 1 of the Heavyweight Fight (World Series) between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

This article will feature my best bets for the series’ first game, but if you’re interested in a complete series breakdown, you can find that here.

This playoff run we’ve been on has been a lot of fun. We are up 10.60 Units in the playoffs, meaning a $100 unit bettor is up $1,060, taking my plays in October. We hope to continue the hot streak into the World Series, but nothing is guaranteed. I also want to remind everyone that my plays always get better as I’m able to watch how these two teams play each other. My worst days have always come in Game 1s, play accordingly. I have full confidence in these plays, but I think that disclaimer is important.

Have all the intel you need? Free actionable info is one click away! Sign up for our daily newsletter.

New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Gerrit Cole (3.41 ERA) vs. Jack Flaherty (3.17 ERA)

What a game we have for us on Friday Night. Two aces take the mound, but I’m not sold they perform like aces today. Before we get into the plays, check out how these offenses have performed during the regular season and the playoffs. I included the starting rotations for both, but you can see how both pitchers have done to this point.

Los Angeles Dodgers By the Numbers

Regular Season Statistics

Offense

Name	wRC+	wOBA	OPS	fWAR
Shohei Ohtani (DH)	181	.431	1.036	9.2
Mookie Betts (RF)	141	.371	.863	4.4
Freddie Freeman (1B)	137	.365	.854	4.0
Teoscar Hernandez (LF)	134	.360	.840	3.5
Max Muncy (3B)	135	.362	.852	2.4
Will Smith (C)	111	.326	.760	2.7
Enrique Hernandez (CF)	83	.285	.654	0.7
Tommy Edman (SS)	98	.307	.711	0.9
Gavin Lux (2B)	100	.310	.703	1.5
Team	118	.337	.781	33.7

These are offensive statistics from the 2024 regular season. I pulled everything from the typical starting lineup; at the bottom, that’s the entire team. So, the starters’ stats won’t add up to the final tally because it incorporates all players from the regular season.

Playoff Statistics

Name	wRC+	wOBA	OPS	Hard-Hit Rate
Shohei Ohtani (DH)	166	.409	.934	44%
Mookie Betts (RF)	182	.435	1.063	47.2%
Freddie Freeman (1B)	31	.208	.461	26.9%
Teoscar Hernandez (LF)	101	.312	.690	32.1%
Max Muncy (3B)	187	.439	1.014	34.8%
Will Smith (C)	78	.277	.605	28.1%
Enrique Hernandez (CF)	145	.377	.863	24%
Tommy Edman (SS)	123	.345	.811	22%
Gavin Lux (2B)	61	.258	.593	26.1%
Team	122	.343	.785	30.8%

These are offensive statistics from this year’s playoffs to see the hottest hitters in the lineup. I substituted Hard-Hit rate for fWAR in the playoffs, so we can see who consistently hits the ball the hardest. Players hitting the ball hard without seeing results may be in line for a better series moving forward, and vice versa.

Starting Rotation (Regular Season)

Name	xERA	SIERA	FIP	xFIP
Jack Flaherty	3.51	3.10	3.48	3.00
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	3.44	3.14	2.61	2.86
Walker Buehler	4.68	4.54	5.54	4.49

These are the three projected starting pitchers for the Los Angeles Dodgers in order of which game they will pitch. These four advanced numbers are what I view as the most important. xERA, SIERA, and xFIP are more predictive; while FIP is similar to ERA, it focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs.

Name	ERA	SIERA	FIP	xFIP
Jack Flaherty	7.04	5.51	6.23	5.86
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	5.11	3.61	4.71	4.07
Walker Buehler	6.00	4.55	4.61	5.18
Team	6.08	4.78	5.59	5.17

New York Yankees By the Numbers

Regular Season Statistics

Offense

Name	wRC+	wOBA	OPS	fWAR
Aaron Judge (CF)	218	.476	1.159	11.2
Juan Soto (RF)	180	.421	.988	8.1
Gleyber Torres (2B)	104	.313	.708	1.7
Giancarlo Stanton (DH)	116	.330	.773	0.8
Austin Wells (C)	105	.315	.717	3.4
Anthony Volpe (SS)	86	.287	.657	3.4
Jazz Chisholm (3B)	132	.353	.825	2.3
Anthony Rizzo (1B)	84	.285	.636	-0.2
Alex Verdugo (LF)	83	.283	.675	0.6
Team	117	.331	.761	33.7

Playoff Statistics

Name	wRC+	wOBA	OPS	Hard-Hit Rate
Aaron Judge (CF)	94	.299	.704	45%
Juan Soto (RF)	203	.452	1.106	44.4%
Gleyber Torres (2B)	141	.365	.832	33.3%
Giancarlo Stanton (DH)	220	.478	1.179	59.3%
Austin Wells (C)	-1	.163	.348	33.3%
Anthony Volpe (SS)	147	.374	.804	39.1%
Jazz Chisholm (3B)	37	.218	.481	29.2%
Anthony Rizzo (1B)	182	.423	1.000	0%
Alex Verdugo (LF)	60	.251	.544	25%
Team	117	.330	.759	36.6%

Starting Rotation (Regular Season)

Name	xERA	SIERA	FIP	xFIP
Gerrit Cole	3.59	3.79	3.69	3.99
Carlos Rodon	3.96	3.78	4.39	4.09
Clarke Schmidt	3.75	3.77	3.58	3.92
Luis Gil	3.83	4.22	4.14	4.36

These are the four projected starting pitchers for the New York Yankees in order of which game they will pitch. These four advanced numbers are what I view as the most important. xERA, SIERA, and xFIP are more predictive; while FIP is similar to ERA, it focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs.

Starting Rotation (Playoffs)

Name	ERA	SIERA	FIP	xFIP
Gerrit Cole	3.31	5.02	3.60	5.39
Carlos Rodon	4.40	1.75	2.12	1.99
Clarke Schmidt	3.86	4.37	4.56	4.62
Luis Gil	4.50	6.74	3.92	6.94
Team	3.89	3.81	3.35	4.26

The first bet I made on this game was the total. We discussed this game in a ton of detail on today’s Just Baseball Show. Aram and I were aligned on one thing: runs will be scored today, and they are more than likely to come early, but I have faith that both offenses can get us across the finish line. I have a bit more faith in one of these offenses.

The Yankees have a perfect match up today against Jack Flaherty. I’m so bullish on the offense today because even if Flaherty is executing at a high level, his pitch mix is a dream for this Yankees offense.

Jack Flaherty is a right-handed pitcher. No team in Major League Baseball had a better record against right-handed starters this season. The Yankees had the highest wRC+ at home this season against righties and the highest on the road. In Game 1 of the playoffs, the Yankees are 2-0 to the team total over, both against right-handed starters. The Yankees also went over this team total in every game against the Guardians.

The Yankees are a perfect 7-0 against righties in the postseason and have the best winning percentage against righties in the regular season. The Yankees have a .805 OPS against righties in the playoffs but just a .656 OPS against lefties.

Beyond the handedness of Flaherty, his pitch mix is a perfect match for the Yankees offense to get to him early. He’s mostly a three-pitch guy: a four-seam fastball (44.3%), a slider (29%), and a knuckle curve (21.8%). He also has a changeup and sinker that takes up 5% of his mix.

Against that mix, the Yankees have the highest xwOBA in the league at .365. Against his three main pitches, the xwOBA is .360, 20 points higher than the Padres, who scored four runs in five innings against Flaherty.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.

They are the third-best team in baseball against four-seamers between 90-95 MPH, the best team against right-handed sliders, and the second-best team against right-handed knuckle curves. The Mets rank 10th against that mix, far away from the number-one-ranked Yankees. This is Flaherty’s toughest matchup of the entire season.

One thing that is working in his favor is the Yankees have yet to see him this year. They have faced him, but he wasn’t the same pitcher, and these hitters aren’t the same either. Considering the Yankees haven’t seen him, I’m predicting a five-inning, three-run performance from Flaherty, but I could see a worse performance than he did against the Padres.

The Dodgers offense is just too good to avoid including in this equation. Gerrit Cole is the guy you want in the playoffs: a 2.98 ERA in 120 career innings. The thing is, this is a different Gerrit Cole. We discussed this when we took his under 5.5 strikeouts against the Guardians. This isn’t the same guy striking out north of 30% of hitters; it’s down to 25%. He still has an outstanding arm, but he is not quite the bonafide ace you can guarantee an excellent outing.

The way he can be effective is getting ahead with his cutter and four-seamer, two pitches the Dodgers struggle against compared to other pitches. It’s slim because the Dodgers crush everything, but I have more faith in him being successful in this one. However, I am worried about his ERA spiking to 6.00 in the fourth inning. I think he looks great through three innings, and the Dodgers finally get to him after seeing him once through the order. I project Cole, finishing with five innings and two earned runs.

The most likely scenario is a 3-2 lead for the Yankees after five innings, but like I said, I could see even more runs scored early. I am tempted to go with the first five over, but with these two offenses, I’ll always take my chances in the later innings. The Yankees had no issues dealing with a better Guardians bullpen, and I can’t imagine the Dodgers not adding against this Yankees bullpen.

The Dodgers bullpen is elite, but it’s filled with right-handed pitchers who rely on fastballs and breaking balls, which is exactly what the Yankees want to see. The Yankees bullpen is solid, but the mix doesn’t matter because the Dodgers can hit anyone.

I’m more confident in the Yankees bats in this matchup. They have an excellent matchup against Flaherty, and if the Yankees are cruising against him and Cole is doing well, I don’t expect to see Blake Treinen or Evan Phillips. If it’s close, that means the Dodgers got to Cole, which means the bullpens won’t matter much as we get close to hitting this total in the first five innings.

I would take the Yankees team total down to +115 and the full game to 9 (+100). I also like Yankees ML at +110, but I like the team total significantly more due to the price.

Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.