Predicting the Final 15 NCAA Games From the Sweet 16 to the Final

(1) Houston OVER (1) Florida

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME MATCHUP

Arena: Alamodome

Location: San Antonio, TX

Date: Monday, April 7

Where to Watch: CBS

Time: 8:50 p.m.

Florida is more likely to make the Final Four and the Championship Game of these two teams. But if both get here, my lean is toward the Cougars, albeit more with my heart than my head. It feels like time for Kelvin Sampson and the Houston program that has been knocking on the door year in and year out. As good as UF's metrics are, the Cougars are slightly ahead, as they have an offense ranked in the top 10 in both KenPom and EvanMiya. Their top three scorers all shoot better than 42 percent from downtown, with an impressive team three-point shooting percentage of 39.8. While the SEC has gotten most of the spotlight--rightfully so--it's Houston's year to cut down the nets. 

bet365 ODDS TO WIN FINAL

Duke +230

Florida +375

Houston +425

Auburn +450

Alabama +1800

Tennessee +1800

Texas Tech +1800

Michigan State +2200

Maryland +3300

Arizona +4000

Kentucky +5000

BYU +7000

Michigan +7000

Ole Miss +7500

Purdue +7500

Arkansas +10000

(1) Florida (32-4) OVER (4) Maryland (27-8)

5 Things We Learned About the Florida Gators

WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS

Arena: Chase Center

Location: San Francisco, CA

Date: Thursday, March 27

Where to Watch: TBS/truTV

Time: 7:39 p.m. ET

Spread: Florida -6.5 | Total: 157.5

Moneyline: Florida -270 | Maryland +220

Two very highly-skilled teams with top-end stars escaped second-half deficits in the second round to keep this one of the chalkier first weeks in recent history. We like the tested Gators to bounce back and find peak form again. 

(1) Duke (33-3) OVER (4) Arizona (24-12)

5 Things We Learned About the Duke Blue Devils

WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS

Arena: Prudential Center

Location: Newark, NJ

Date: Thursday, March 27

Where to Watch: CBS

Time: 9:39 p.m. ET

Spread: Duke -9.5 | Total: 153.5

Moneyline: Duke -500| Arizona +375

While this matchup features a pair of bluebloods from power conferences, it projects as the biggest blowout of Thursday night. Points will be tough to come by, especially for the Wildcats. 

(3) Texas Tech (27-8) OVER (10) Arkansas (22-13)

Ranking the Sweet 16 Coaches in the NCAA Tournament

WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS

Arena: Chase Center

Location: San Francisco, CA

Date: Thursday, March 27

Where to Watch: TBS/truTV

Time: 10:09 p.m. ET

Spread: Texas Tech -5.5 | Total: 148.0

Moneyline: Texas Tech -245 | Arkansas +200

We're not picking the upset, but it wouldn't be surprising if the lowest seed remaining in the tournament made this a close contest in a low-scoring affair. Ultimately, the Razorbacks won't overcome their lack of offense. 

(2) Tennessee (29-7) OVER (3) Kentucky (24-11)

5 Things We Learned About the Kentucky Wildcats

WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS

Arena: Lucas Oil Stadium

Location: Indianapolis, IN

Date: Friday, March 28

Where to Watch: TBS/truTV

Time: 7:39 p.m. ET

Spread: Tennessee -4.5 | Total: 144.5

Moneyline: Tennessee -205 | Kentucky +170

Tennessee knocked off one blueblood in UCLA and now sets its sights on another in Kentucky as this SEC rivalry makes its way to Big Ten country. The Vols are a top dog right now, but the 'Cats are coming, so Rick Barnes better get the better of Mark Pope while he can. 

(2) Michigan State (29-6) OVER (6) Ole Miss (24-11)

5 Things We Learned About the Michigan State Spartans

WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS

Arena: State Farm Arena

Location: Atlanta, GA

Date: Friday, March 28

Where to Watch: CBS

Time: 7:09 p.m. ET

Spread: Michigan State -3.5 | Total: 143.5

Moneyline: Michigan State -170 | Ole Miss +145

If you want a low-scoring, nip-and-tuck, back-and-forth contest, this game is for you. Even though the Rebels are a sixth seed, this is the most evenly matched game on Friday night, which the Spartans will pull out in the end. 

(1) Auburn (30-5) OVER (5) Michigan (27-9)

5 Things We Learned About the Michigan Wolverines

WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS

Arena: State Farm Arena

Location: Atlanta, GA

Date: Friday, March 28

Where to Watch: CBS

Time: 9:39 p.m. ET

Spread: Auburn -8.5 | Total: 154.0

Moneyline: Auburn -425 | Michigan +325

Offense is on the menu in Atlanta. The Big Ten Champion Wolverines are among the best teams in close games, but that might not come into play on Friday night, as the top-seeded Tigers should be able to pull away to punch their ticket to the Elite 8. 

(1) Houston (32-4) OVER (4) Purdue (24-11)

NCAAM: Top Players Who Entered the CBB Transfer Portal

WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS

Arena: Lucas Oil Stadium

Location: Indianapolis, IN

Date: Friday, March 28

Where to Watch: TBS/truTV

Time: 10:09 p.m. ET

Spread: Houston -8.0 | Total: 132.5

Moneyline: Houston -380 | Purdue +300

In what is expected to be a defensive struggle, a pair of recent Final Four teams under their current coaches are looking to finally cut down the nets on the final Monday of the season. It won't be pretty as we ride the Houston defense in this Friday night fight. 

(1) Duke OVER (6) BYU

ELITE EIGHT MATCHUP

Arena: Prudential Center

Location: Newark, NJ

Date: Saturday, March 29

Where to Watch: CBS/TBS

Time: TBD

BYU's magic ride comes to an end as they face the Blue Devils in the Duke Invitational--I mean, the East Regional Final. We wouldn't be surprised if the Cougars keep it close for a half, but eventually, Duke wears them down with too much firepower, crushing their glass slipper as Jon Scheyer makes his first Final Four. 

bet365 ODDS TO WIN EAST REGIONAL

Duke -180

Alabama +350

Arizona +700

BYU +850

(1) Florida OVER (3) Texas Tech

ELITE EIGHT MATCHUP

Arena: Chase Center

Location: San Francisco, CA

Date: Saturday, March 29

Where to Watch: CBS/TBS

Time: TBD

Ultimately, it comes down to which team has more answers, and with a top-ten offense and defense, the Florida Gators have them. Led by elite guard Walter Clayton Jr. and the incredibly effective Thomas Haugh, the No. 1 seed has too many runs in them for Tech to keep up. 

bet365 ODDS TO WIN WEST REGIONAL

Florida -130

Texas Tech +290

Maryland +450

Arkansas +1000

(1) Houston OVER (2) Tennessee

ELITE EIGHT MATCHUP

Arena: Lucas Oil Stadium

Location: Indianapolis, IN

Date: Sunday, March 30

Where to Watch: CBS/TBS

Time: TBD

We don't feel great about riding with the chalk in what appears to be the toughest and most balanced region going into the Sweet 16. It's the only region with all four top seeds remaining, making it a challenging path for the Cougars. That won't deter Kelvin Sampson and the best defense in college basketball as they shut down the Vols. 

bet365 ODDS TO WIN MIDWEST REGIONAL

Houston -125

Tennessee +240

Kentucky +650

Purdue +750

(1) Auburn OVER (2) Michigan State

5 Things We Learned About the Auburn Tigers

ELITE EIGHT MATCHUP

Arena: State Farm Arena

Location: Atlanta, GA

Date: Sunday, March 30

Where to Watch: CBS/TBS

Time: TBD

Am I really going with four No. 1 seeds to the Final Four? Sigh. Yes. Yes, I am. It wouldn't be that hard to back Tom Izzo, he of EIGHT Final Fours (fifth most all-time) against Bruce Pearl, who has only made one (in 2019, both Auburn and MSU lost in the semis). While we love what the Spartans can do defensively, they don't have the offensive firepower of the top teams (even Houston) or a star to go mano-a-mano with Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome. 

bet365 ODDS TO WIN SOUTH REGIONAL

Auburn -135

Michigan State +260

Michigan +700

Ole Miss +750

(1) Houston OVER (1) Duke

FINAL FOUR MATCHUP

Arena: Alamodome

Location: San Antonio, TX

Date: Saturday, April 5

Where to Watch: CBS

Time: TBD

An upset! Finally. Cooper Flagg's college career comes to an end in the Alamodome as he and the Blue Devils run into the best defense they have faced in their lives. The Cougars had to travel to Indianapolis for the Regionals but got the Final Four in their home state. More than home cooking, it's an improved offense led by top-notch scorer L.J. Cryer, who can really fill it up from beyond the arc. 

bet365 ODDS TO MAKE FINAL

Duke YES +115 | NO -145

Houston YES +220 | NO -290

Alabama YES +750 | NO -1400

Tennessee +750 | NO -1400

Arizona YES +1800 | NO -15000

Kentucky YES +2200 | NO -50000

BYU YES +3300 | NO -50000

Purdue +3300 | NO -50000

 

(1) Florida OVER (1) Auburn

FINAL FOUR MATCHUP

Arena: Alamodome

Location: San Antonio, TX

Date: Saturday, April 5

Where to Watch: CBS

Time: TBD

It's an all-SEC semifinal, as the regular season champ (Auburn) takes on the conference tournament champ (Florida). If this game were played in November, December, January, or February, we'd be on the Tigers. But this is March! OK, it will be April by the time we get to San Antonio, but since March, the Gators have been playing their best basketball. These teams are evenly matched, with Florida's recent elevated play making them the best team out of the best conference. 

bet365 ODDS TO MAKE FINAL

Florida YES +180 | NO -230

Auburn YES +220 | NO -290

Texas Tech YES +850 | NO -1600

Michigan State YES +1000 | NO -2200

Maryland YES +1400 | NO -4000

Michigan YES +3300 | NO -50000

Ole Miss YES +3300 | NO -50000

Arkansas YES +4000 | NO -100000

(1) Houston OVER (1) Florida

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME MATCHUP

Arena: Alamodome

Location: San Antonio, TX

Date: Monday, April 7

Where to Watch: CBS

Time: 8:50 p.m.

Florida is more likely to make the Final Four and the Championship Game of these two teams. But if both get here, my lean is toward the Cougars, albeit more with my heart than my head. It feels like time for Kelvin Sampson and the Houston program that has been knocking on the door year in and year out. As good as UF's metrics are, the Cougars are slightly ahead, as they have an offense ranked in the top 10 in both KenPom and EvanMiya. Their top three scorers all shoot better than 42 percent from downtown, with an impressive team three-point shooting percentage of 39.8. While the SEC has gotten most of the spotlight--rightfully so--it's Houston's year to cut down the nets. 

bet365 ODDS TO WIN FINAL

Duke +230

Florida +375

Houston +425

Auburn +450

Alabama +1800

Tennessee +1800

Texas Tech +1800

Michigan State +2200

Maryland +3300

Arizona +4000

Kentucky +5000

BYU +7000

Michigan +7000

Ole Miss +7500

Purdue +7500

Arkansas +10000