Ranking the 40 Most Likely Final Four Teams Based on ESPN’s Projections

40) SMU Mustangs

Record: 21-7

Conference: ACC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 0.5%

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2) Houston Cougars

Record: 24-4

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 46.9%

3) Auburn Tigers

Record: 26-2

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 41.8%

4) Tennessee Volunteers

Record: 23-5

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 22.5%

5) Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 23-5

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 20.8%

6) Florida Gators

Record: 24-4

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 18.9%

7) Arizona Wildcats

Record: 19-9

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 17.9%

8) Iowa State Cyclones

Record: 21-7

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 16.1%

9) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Record: 21-7

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 13.9%

10) Michigan State Spartans

Record: 23-5

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 11.4%

11) Kansas Jayhawks

Record: 19-9

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 10.6%

12) Gonzaga Bulldogs

Record: 22-8

Conference: West Coast

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 9.4%

13) St. John's Red Storm

Record: 25-4

Conference: Big East

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 9.0%

14) Kentucky Wildcats

Record: 19-9

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 8.9%

15) Clemson Tigers

Record: 23-5

Conference: ACC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 8.5%

16) Wisconsin Badgers

Record: 22-6

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 8.5%

17) Maryland Terrapins

Record: 21-7

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 8.3%

18) Purdue Boilermakers

Record: 19-9

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 7.8%

19) Marquette Golden Eagles

Record: 21-7

Conference: Big East

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 6.5%

20) Texas A&M Aggies

Record: 20-8

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 6.4%

21) UConn Huskies

Record: 19-9

Conference: Big East

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 4.4%

22) Illinois Fighting Illini

Record: 18-11

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 4.3%

23) Michigan Wolverines

Record: 22-6

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 4.1%

24) Baylor Bears

Record: 16-12

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 3.9%

25) Creighton Bluejays

Record: 20-8

Conference: Big East

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 3.8%

26) BYU Cougars

Record: 20-8

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 3.8%

27) Missouri Tigers

Record: 21-7

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 3.8%

28) UCLA Bruins

Record: 20-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 3.5%

29) Saint Mary's Gaels

Record: 26-4

Conference: West Coast

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 3.3%

30) Louisville Cardinals

Record: 22-6

Conference: ACC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 2.7%

31) Ole Miss Rebels

Record: 19-9

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 2.5%

32) Mississippi State Bulldogs

Record: 19-9

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 2.0%

33) Oregon Ducks

Record: 20-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 1.6%

34) VCU Rams

Record: 23-5

Conference: Atlantic 10

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 1.5%

35) Ohio State Buckeyes

Record: 16-13

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 1.0%

36) Utah State Aggies

Record: 24-5

Conference: Mountain West

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 0.9%

37) Memphis Tigers

Record: 23-5

Conference: AAC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 0.9%

38) Texas Longhorns

Record: 16-12

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 0.8%

39) North Carolina Tar Heels

Record: 18-11

Conference: ACC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 0.5%

40) SMU Mustangs

Record: 21-7

Conference: ACC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 0.5%

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