Ranking the 40 Most Likely Final Four Teams Based on ESPN’s Projections

40) Utah State Aggies

Record: 24-6

Conference: Mountain West

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.5%

2) Houston Cougars

Record: 26-4

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 49.6%

3) Auburn Tigers

Record: 27-3

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 45.1%

4) Tennessee Volunteers

Record: 24-6

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 23.4%

5) Florida Gators

Record: 26-4

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 23.0%

6) Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 23-7

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 21.7%

7) Iowa State Cyclones

Record: 22-8

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 15.6%

8) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Record: 23-7

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 14.7%

9) Arizona Wildcats

Record: 20-10

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 14.3%

10) Michigan State Spartans

Record: 24-5

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 11.5%

11) Gonzaga Bulldogs

Record: 23-8

Conference: West Coast

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 9.2%

12) Kansas Jayhawks

Record: 19-11

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 9.0%

13) Maryland Terrapins

Record: 23-7

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 8.8%

14) Kentucky Wildcats

Record: 20-10

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 8.7%

15) Wisconsin Badgers

Record: 23-7

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 8.0%

16) St. John's Red Storm

Record: 26-4

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 7.8%

17) Purdue Boilermakers

Record: 21-9

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 7.6%

18) Clemson Tigers

Record: 25-5

Conference: ACC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 7.4%

19) Texas A&M Aggies

Record: 21-9

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 6.3%

20) Marquette Golden Eagles

Record: 22-8

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 6.0%

21) Illinois Fighting Illini

Record: 19-11

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 5.3%

22) UConn Huskies

Record: 21-9

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 5.0%

23) BYU Cougars

Record: 22-8

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 4.5%

24) Baylor Bears

Record: 18-12

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 3.3%

25) St. Mary's Gaels

Record: 27-4

Conference: West Coast

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 2.8%

26) UCLA Bruins

Record: 21-9

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 2.5%

27) Missouri Tigers

Record: 21-9

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 2.3%

28) Creighton Bluejays

Record: 21-9

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 2.2%

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29) Ole Miss Rebels

Record: 21-9

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 2.1%

30) Michigan Wolverines

Record: 22-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 2.0%

31) Louisville Cardinals

Record: 24-6

Conference: ACC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 1.9%

32) Oregon Ducks

Record: 22-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 1.5%

33) VCU Rams

Record: 25-5

Conference: Atlantic-10

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 1.3%

34) Mississippi State Bulldogs

Record: 20-10

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 1.2%

35) Ohio State Buckeyes

Record: 17-13

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.7%

36) North Carolina Tar Heels

Record: 20-11

Conference: ACC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.6%

37) Georgia Bulldogs

Record: 19-11

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.6%

38) Memphis Tigers

Record: 25-5

Conference: American

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.6%

39) Xavier Musketeers

Record: 20-10

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.5%

40) Utah State Aggies

Record: 24-6

Conference: Mountain West

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.5%