Ranking the 40 Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams Based on ESPN’s Projections

40) Xavier Musketeers

Record: 20-10

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 5.8%

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2) Houston Cougars

Record: 26-4

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 84.0%

3) Auburn Tigers

Record: 27-3

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 81.8%

4) Florida Gators

Record: 26-4

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 71.4%

5) Tennessee Volunteers

Record: 24-6

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 70.3%

6) Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 23-7

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 69.2%

7) Iowa State Cyclones

Record: 22-8

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 66.5%

8) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Record: 23-7

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 65.7%

9) Michigan State Spartans

Record: 25-5

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 60.6%

10) Arizona Wildcats

Record: 20-10

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 60.4%

11) Maryland Terrapins

Record: 23-7

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 54.1%

12) Wisconsin Badgers

Record: 23-7

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 53.5%

13) St. John's Red Storm

Record: 26-4

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 53.1%

14) Kentucky Wildcats

Record: 20-10

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 53.0%

15) Clemson Tigers

Record: 25-5

Conference: ACC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 51.1%

16) Purdue Boilermakers

Record: 21-9

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 49.2%

17) Gonzaga Bulldogs

Record: 23-8

Conference: West Coast

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 44.9%

18) Kansas Jayhawks

Record: 19-11

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 44.8%

19) Texas A&M Aggies

Record: 21-9

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 42.9%

20) Marquette Golden Eagles

Record: 22-8

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 39.7%

21) BYU Cougars

Record: 22-8

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 32.8%

22) Saint Mary's Gaels

Record: 27-4

Conference: West Coast

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 30.9%

23) Illinois Fighting Illini

Record: 19-11

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 28.2%

24) Louisville Cardinals

Record: 24-6

Conference: ACC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 26.6%

25) Missouri Tigers

Record: 21-9

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 24.9%

26) UCLA Bruins

Record: 22-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 21.9%

27) UConn Huskies

Record: 21-9

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 20.7%

28) Ole Miss Rebels

Record: 21-9

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 19.4%

29) Michigan Wolverines

Record: 22-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 15.9%

30) Baylor Bears

Record: 18-12

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 14.9%

31) Creighton Bluejays

Record: 21-9

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 12.6%

32) Oregon Ducks

Record: 22-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 12.3%

33) Mississippi State Bulldogs

Record: 20-10

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 8.8%

34) VCU Rams

Record: 25-5

Conference: Atlantic 10

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 7.4%

35) Memphis Tigers

Record: 25-5

Conference: American

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 7.2%

36) Ohio State Buckeyes

Record: 17-13

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 7.0%

37) New Mexico Lobos

Record: 24-6

Conference: Mountain West

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 7.0%

38) West Virginia Mountaineers

Record: 18-12

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 6.2%

39) Utah State Aggies

Record: 24-6

Conference: Mountain West

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 6.1%

40) Xavier Musketeers

Record: 20-10

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 5.8%

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