10 Potential Upsets for College Football Week 12
TJ Inman
Host · Writer
College football is in full swing as we enter the final fourth of the season! Week 12 presents a strong slate as the end of the regular season is in sight. There are so many games that could offer incredible drama this week. Which teams are potentially on upset watch?
1. Clemson at Louisville (-3.5) – Friday at 7:30
The Clemson Tigers have had a disastrous season, but they have shown fight in the past two weeks and have clearly not given up on the campaign. Dabo Swinney’s squad had Duke beat, but an awful pass interference call gave the Blue Devils a chance, and they scored, plus got a two-point conversion to win 46-45. Clemson responded by locking up the Florida State Seminoles, jumping out to a 15-0 lead and coasting to a 24-10 win. Quarterback Cade Klubnik looks relatively healthy, and he’s playing at a really high level. The defense answered the bell after giving up 46 points to Duke. They now play Louisville on Friday night, and the Cardinals look like a different team without star running back Isaac Brown. Clemson’s defense can generate pressure on Miller Moss, and the Tigers should be able to replicate the success Cal’s and Virginia’s offenses have had against the Cardinals.
2. Notre Dame (-11.5) at Pittsburgh – Noon
I have been not so subtly pointing towards this game for weeks, and Pitt’s chance to prove its worth has arrived. Notre Dame has beaten up on overmatched opposition for weeks after losing to Texas A&M and Miami to open the season, and they are closing in on a College Football Playoff bid. The Fighting Irish have to get by the Pitt Panthers first, though. Since inserting freshman Mason Heintschel into the lineup, Pitt is unbeaten, and they have wins by 41, three, 17, 19, and 15 points. That includes an impressive 53-34 romp over North Carolina State, and the Panthers had a bye week to get ready for this game. Notre Dame is excellent, but I think this could be a special run that Pitt is on with Heintschel, and I like Pat Narduzzi’s ability to pull off a shocker at home. The Panthers have a talented receiver corps that can have some success against Notre Dame’s secondary.
3. Arizona at Cincinnati (-6.5) – Noon
The Cincinnati Bearcats are 7-2 and 5-1 in the Big 12, placing them right in the thick of the conference title race. The league wins are against Kansas, Iowa State, UCF, Oklahoma State, and Baylor, so they have not exactly beaten up on high-quality opposition. Very quietly, the Arizona Wildcats are bowl-eligible after a disastrous first season for head coach Brent Brennan, and he deserves credit for the rebound job he’s orchestrated this season. The Bearcats are only favored by a touchdown, and Arizona has won two straight games, including an impressive 52-17 blowout of Colorado in Boulder. Two of UA’s league losses were by three points at Houston and by only six points to BYU, so the Wildcats could easily be 8-1. They are a dangerous opponent for Cincinnati.
4. South Florida (-10.5) at Navy – Noon
The South Florida Bulls and Navy Midshipmen meet with first-place in the American Athletic Conference on the line. The Bulls have the league’s top offense, and they’ve scored 251 points in just five conference games (North Texas has 221 in league games). Navy has the perfect counter for that attack: control the ball with an awesome rushing attack. The South Florida Bulls could very easily get dragged into a slugfest where Navy holds the ball for 7 or 8 minutes at a time. South Florida is good against the run, but they haven’t faced a rushing attack like the one they’ll see against Navy. If star quarterback Blake Horvath can return for this game, the Midshipmen will be a significant issue for South Florida on the road.
5. West Virginia at Arizona State (-11.5) – 1:00
Rich Rodriguez has a big task on his hands, and the rebuild in Morgantown is extensive, but the Mountaineers appear to have begun figuring things out. In the past two weeks, WVU has won back-to-back Big 12 games with a ten-point win at Houston and then a home triumph over Colorado. Scotty Fox has been inserted at quarterback with 58 yards rushing and 202 yards passing, and they limited Colorado to just 1.3 yards per carry and 51 yards rushing total. The Mountaineers now travel to Arizona State, and the Sun Devils are limping into this game at 6-3. I think Rodriguez finds a way to get the victory on the road over the wounded Arizona State Sun Devils and grab their fifth win of the season.
6. Oklahoma at Alabama (-6.5) – 3:30
Brent Venables and the Oklahoma Sooners have had a full two weeks to prepare for this road matchup at Alabama. The Sooners are number one in the country with four sacks per game, and quarterback John Mateer should be close to fully healthy after the bye week. While he was limited, Oklahoma may have found a running game to complement him, and Alabama has struggled with mobile quarterbacks during Kane Wommack’s tenure as defensive coordinator. If Alabama can’t run the ball (something proven all season), and Oklahoma knows the Tide will be trying to pass downfield, the Sooners’ pass rush could get home often. The Crimson Tide have been playing very well, but Oklahoma matches up well and could grab a signature victory in Tuscaloosa.
7. Iowa at USC (-6.5) – 3:30
The Iowa Hawkeyes have lost a pair of heartbreakers in the Big Ten, dropping close games to Indiana and Oregon in Kinnick Stadium. The Ducks needed a late drive to get into field-goal range as time expired, but it should not be lost that Iowa continues to drag opponents into low-scoring, challenging games. The Hawkeyes will do the same thing this Saturday as they battle the USC Trojans. USC is 7-2, but they have not really faced a team that plays as slowly as the Hawkeyes plan to play on Saturday. The closest comparison might be the Northwestern Wildcats, a team that is roughly a budget version of Iowa. Northwestern trailed by only three points at halftime last Friday night against USC before the Trojans pulled away late. A loss for USC would eliminate them from College Football Playoff contention and make the Big Ten a three-bid league a reality.
8. Utah (-7.5) at Baylor – 7:00
The best chance the Big 12 has to become a two-bid league is probably for Utah to run the table impressively and finish 10-2 while chaos around the rest of the country drops other teams and pushes Utah into the field. Those hopes come to an end on Saturday night in Waco, as the Baylor Bears use their bye week to spring an upset on the Utes. Baylor has 190 points in six Big 12 games, and they most recently routed UCF 30-3. Sawyer Robertson can put on a show, and the Bears can score 35+, even against this defense. Utah has not faced many quality quarterbacks this season, and Waco is a tough place to play.
9. Texas at Georgia (-6.5) – 7:30
The Georgia Bulldogs have survived a series of close games to keep themselves in prime position for a College Football Playoff bid, but they have failed to look like a genuine title contender. That changed on Saturday afternoon, and there are reasons to believe the Bulldogs are hitting peak form at the right time. Georgia is running the ball well with a deep stable of running backs plus quarterback Gunner Stockton. In addition, Stockton is getting multiple receivers and tight ends involved, and the passing game is looking dangerous. The defense is still struggling to generate much pressure from the front, but coordinator Glenn Schumann has recently turned the linebackers loose, and they are creating havoc on opposing offenses. Texas comes to Athens with a whole lot of momentum, and the Longhorns have really started to figure things out on offense with Arch Manning shrugging aside his early struggles and putting up excellent numbers recently. After struggling with Kentucky, Texas put up 45 on Mississippi State and then 34 against Vanderbilt, and Manning’s mobility should be a problem for the UGA defense. Texas certainly has enough talent to go toe-to-toe with the Bulldogs.
10. TCU at BYU (-5.5) – 10:15
The BYU Cougars were being propped up by their undefeated record, but the lone impressive victory of any sort was against the Utah Utes in Provo. Beyond that, the Cougars had no ranked wins, and the Texas Tech defense thoroughly dismantled them as the Red Raiders won 29-7. Now, with one loss, BYU has to find a way to rebound and refocus after taking a beating. The TCU Horned Frogs come to Provo with a competent offense, as Josh Hoover will be one of the best quarterbacks that BYU’s defense has faced. TCU has good perimeter athletes, and Sonny Dykes should have a strong plan in place to create explosive plays. A loss for BYU would probably make the Big 12 a one-bid league.
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