Big Ten Best Bets for Week 5: B1GBets Predictions | College Football Picks

It feels good to be on the other side of .500! Winning, in general, feels good. Doesn’t it?

Week 5’s slate features eight Big Ten games, all of the conference variety, as Rutgers, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State play their first Big Ten game of the season. The Ducks are the last of the former Pac-12 schools to play a Big Ten conference game (more on that later).  

Last Week: 5-1 (+4.5 UNITS) | Overall: 12-10 (+5 UNITS)

Regular Bets: 1-5 (-2 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 7-4 (+3 UNITS) | B1GGER Bets: 4-0 (+6 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-1 (-2 UNITS)

ATS Bets: 6-6 (+1.5 UNITS) | Team Totals: 6-3 (+4 UNITS) | Game Totals: 0-1 (-0.5 UNITS)

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REGULAR BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 1-1 | Season: 1-5 (-2 UNITS)

Nebraska -9.5 PURDUE (Bovada)

As you probably know, I’m not high on the Cornhuskers, but this meeting screams mismatch. Nebraska feels like a bully to me, and they will enjoy pounding Purdue after their upset loss to Illinois last Friday night.

The Huskers are 40th in EPA/rush (31st in rushing success rate), and Purdue is 133rd defensive EPA/rush, so expect a heavy dose of Dante Dowdell (256 yards, 5.0 YPC). They’re also not afraid to allow Dylan Raiola to let it rip, and he is backing up the hype: 72.2 completion percentage, 8.4 YPA, and eight TDs (2 INTs). Jahmal Banks (6’4”) gives them a big target, and speedy Isaiah Neyor (17.3 YPC) can stretch the field. Purdue’s defense is 88th in EPA/dropback and vulnerable to the big play.

The only flash the Boilermakers have shown this season is their running game, which plays into Nebraska’s strength (20th in defensive EPA/rush). Ty Robinson and Nash Hutmacher (both over 300 pounds) give the Blackshirts the edge in the trenches against Purdue’s suspect offensive line. After lighting up Indiana State, Hudson Card completed 43.9 percent in the past two weeks (43.9 percent!!!) against Notre Dame and Oregon State with three interceptions (two TDs). Making things more challenging is they are without Jahmal Edrine and CJ Smith, transfers who were expected to be their leading receivers after this unit was purged in the portal.

The Boilermakers are making the case to be the worst P4 team in 2024: They rank 128th in EPA margin, 128th in offensive success rate, and 127th in net points per drive. They’ve strangely gotten steam in the betting market the past two weeks before losing 66-7 to Notre Dame (we were on that train) and 38-21 at Oregon State (the line closed at 1.5). This feels too easy, and I would prefer to go against the perceived trend, but the numbers advantage is too much in favor of the Huskers.

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 3-0 | Season: 7-4 (+3 UNITS)

Washington +1.5 RUTGERS (FanDuel)

I liked this line better when it was three earlier in the week, but it still feels off. It indicates that Washington and Rutgers are pretty even teams. They’re not. The defenses are pretty close, but despite RU’s improved passing offense, the Huskies deserve the nod with their skill talent, starting with quarterback Will Rogers III.

The Mississippi State transfer who initially committed to Kalen DeBoer at UW has fit in exceptionally well in Jedd Fisch’s attack. Rogers has completed 75.7 percent of his passes for 9.4 yards per pass and eight touchdowns (no INTS), five to 6’4” sophomore Denzel Boston, who is tied for second in the B1G in TD grabs. The Huskies are third in the country in dropback success rate and 17th in EPA per dropback. Rutgers has good defensive numbers, but they’ve played Howard, Akron, and Virginia Tech. Akron is 130th in EPA per dropback, and the Hokies are 114th in dropback success rate.

Washington is also balanced, as Jonah Coleman (373 yards, 4 TDs, 6.7 YPC) leads a deep stable of backs, and freshman QB Demond Williams Jr. provides a change of pace off the bench. You think of Rutgers being strong against the run, but they gave up nearly 200 yards rushing against the Hokies (183 yards, 6.8 YPC) in their first test of 2024.

They also had trouble running the ball against Tech, as star Kyle Monangai managed just 3.2 yards per carry and are 91st in rushing success rate. Steve Belichick’s defense has been stout early on, holding three of their four opponents without a touchdown with the legs of Washington State’s running quarterback the only player who has given them trouble this season. The Huskies are 11th in defensive EPA and 9th in defensive success rate. Linebackers Carson Bruener (21 tackles) and Alphonzo Tuputala (19 tackles) are tackling machines. They go four deep in quality covermen, with Thaddeus Dixon and Jordan Shaw combining for eight passes defenses. They are also expected to get their top pass rusher back, Zach Durfee, who missed last week’s win over Northwestern.

Washington is the better team and should leave Piscataway with a W.

Maryland +7 INDIANA (BetMGM)

Indiana has been a juggernaut—but before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s acknowledge they’ve played the 121st-ranked schedule. This is a step up in competition for the Hoosiers.

Many believe the unranked Hoosiers are underrated. Maybe so, but so are the Terps. IU is ninth in EPA margin and 6th in net points/drive, and Maryland is 17th in EPA margin and 23rd in net/points per drive. Both starting quarterbacks have excelled, and Maryland’s Billy Edwards Jr. leads the Big Ten in passing yards (1155) and is tied for second with eight TD passes (with four others, including IU’s Kurtis Rourke).

WR Tai Felton (41 receptions, 604 yards, 5 TDs) has been a pass-catching force, while Kaden Prather (15.9 YPC in 2023) and TE Dylan Wade (18.7 YPC) have big play ability. Their offense is balanced with freshman Nolan Ray (5.4 YPC) and Edwards (10 career rushing TDs) complimenting lead back Roman Hemby.

Hard hitters, safety Dante Trader Jr. (21 tackles) and LB Ruben Hyppolite II (17), as well as corners Glendon Miller (3 INTs) and Jalen Huskey (2 INTs), are defensive playmakers.

There’s no reason the Terps can’t stay within striking distance.

B1GGER BETS (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 4-0 (+6 UNITS)

MICHIGAN -10 Minnesota (Caesars)

Michigan is undervalued for the second straight week, and we’re on them again. I’m amazed to see this line south of two touchdowns. We get that many believe it’s unlikely the Wolverines we saw last week are balanced enough to knock off Oregon or Ohio State. But the Gophers?

With Alex Orji running the offense and Kalel Mullings (429 yards, 8.1 YPC, 4 TDs) leading a backfield featuring big-play threat Donovan Edwards, Michigan has an identity. They do an excellent job diversifying the running game, which has them 12th in EPA/rush and 16th in rushing success rate. The Wolverines have multiple players that can hit the home run if too many defenders creep toward the line of scrimmage, which has resulted in six runs of 30+ yards, three runs of 40+ yards, and two runs of 50+ yards, which all rank in the top ten nationally. And they’ve gotten progressively better each week.

Minnesota’s defense is 85th in EPA/rush. After pitching back-to-back shutouts (Rhode Island & Nevada), the Gophers took on a real offense—cough, couch—in Iowa last week. They allowed the Hawkeyes to rush for 272 yards and four touchdowns (6.5 YPC taking away sack yardage) and score the most points in a B1G game in nearly two years. That was with an immobile quarterback who threw for 62 yards. Minny’s defense has the most trouble with double TE formations, and the Wolverines are no strangers to running power out of 12 personnel. If they couldn’t stop Iowa at home, why do we think they can stop the Wolverines on the road?

Minnesota’s offense has looked good—against Rhode Island. They averaged 2.4 yards per rush and 7.5 yards per pass against North Carolina, and UNC’s defense allowed 70 points to James Madison last week! The Gophers averaged 3.8 yards per rush and 5.6 yards per pass against Iowa last week, as the Hawkeyes shut them out in the second half.

Despite a power showing in Week 2 against Texas, Michigan’s defense is 20th in EPA and 21st in success rate. They win on early downs (20th in EPA) where Minnesota struggles (96th), so expect PJ Fleck’s team to be behind the chains for most of the game.

Michigan’s run defense is more formidable than Iowa’s, so your only chance is through the air. A tall task for the New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer, making his first Big Ten road start. The offense is 122nd in EPA/dropback and 78th in success rate on dropbacks. Brosmer has thrown three interceptions, and the Gophers have allowed eight sacks (89th). Does anyone expect them to slow down a Michigan front coming on strong? EDGE Josaiah Stewart has four sacks, and the D-tackle troika of Mason Graham, Rayshaun Benny, and Kenneth Grant is coming off their best game of the season. The interior of Minnesota’s O-line is not very good, making this a terrible matchup for them in the trenches.

The Gophers are 126th in plays per minute, and the Wolverines are 131st, which means limited possessions and a fresh Michigan defense. First downs will not come easy for Minnesota, and if they are down late, Fleck has been known to make the business decision to run out the clock rather than go for garbage points against superior opponents. Two of USC’s touchdown drives last week came on short fields after turnovers (18 & 27 yards), so as long as Michigan protects the football, we feel very good about keeping the Gophers below two TDs. We were on the UNDER at 13.5, but it has since shifted to 11.5, so we’ll put all of our eggs on the spread. 

In addition to Michigan’s massive edge on defense and ability to run the ball, the Maize and Blue have much better special teams. They are ranked No. 2 by SP+ compared to 112th for the Gophers. This is a mismatch.

B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-1 (-2 UNITS)

None.

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