College Football Week 11 Picks: Thursday Night Best Bets

Saturday’s full slate of college football lies on the horizon, but not before we get through Thursday night’s two-game slate.

These are our favorite betting picks for tonight’s Group of Five action!

Where to Watch Georgia Southern Eagles vs Appalachian State Mountaineers

Stadium: Kidd Brewer Stadium
Location: Boone, NC
Where to Watch: FOX Sports
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Spread: APP -5.5 | Total: 60.5
Moneyline: APP -195 | GASO +165

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

It doesn’t look like any team will catch James Madison atop the Sun Belt East standings. Still, the Appalachian State Mountaineers and Georgia Southern Eagles desperately need some wins to stay bowl eligible. The victor of tonight’s SBC clash at Kidd Brewer Stadium has the leg up in terms of cracking the six-win mark. The Mountaineers are short-to-mid home favorites, but their advantage may be more pronounced than the betting line implies.

Appalachian State has dropped two in a row to some of the best teams in the conference, but still has a well-rounded analytics profile. The Mountaineers sit in the top 50 in total offense, churning out 413.3 yards per game. While they were held in check by Coastal Carolina last week, they have flashed their true scoring potential over their recent sample. App State has eclipsed 37 points in two of its previous three, while putting up 845 yards in those two contests. That momentum carries them into what should be a one-sided battle versus the Eagles.

Georgia Southern has an adequate offense, but it falls well short on defense. They give up a not-so-nice 469.0 yards per game, looking more disastrous against the run. So far this season, the Eagles are giving up a whopping 240.9 rushing yards per game, a benchmark that shoots to 314.3 as the visitors. No matter how good or bad their offense is, the Eagles can’t offset that weakness.

Even the 4-4 Mountaineers shouldn’t have any problem controlling the clock and tempo against the porous Eagles’ defense. With that, we’re laying the points with the home side in this Sun Belt affair.

Best Bet: Appalachian State -5.5

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Where to Watch UTSA Roadrunners vs South Florida Bulls

Stadium: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, FL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Spread: USF -13.5 | Total: 67.5
Moneyline: USF -550 | UTSA +380

The South Florida Bulls have a lot of work to do if they hope to convince the College Football Playoff Committee they are deserving of a spot in the 12-team field. Of course, that assumes that they can mount a late-season comeback and still secure a place in the AAC Championship Game. The Bulls also can’t take the UTSA Roadrunners for granted.

UTSA has been on the rise with its latest efforts. The Roadrunners have won two of their last three, putting up a combined 109 points in those victories. As expected, that surge in scoring is validated by improved offensive production. UTSA has averaged 429.7 yards per game across the three-game stretch, ahead of its regular-season average of 402.1 yards per game. They’ll face little resistance against a South Florida side that has struggled mightily as the season progresses.

Many will shower the Bulls with the offensive accolades they deserve. Still, their defense has been the limiting factor to their success. USF sits 90th in total defense, looking particularly abysmal at defending the pass. Through eight games, opponents are averaging 257.0 passing yards per game. That is dwarfed by the 312.0 passing yards per game they’ve given up over their last three.

South Florida’s offensive abilities are virtually unmatched in the Group of 5, but the Roadrunners have shown flashes over their past few games. Expect the visitors to turn to their passing attack, which put up 391 yards last time out. These teams will trade scoring chances all night, pointing us toward the over and UTSA +13.5.

Best Bet: UTSA +13.5, UTSA-USF Over 67.5