NCAAF · 2 hours ago

College Football Playoff 11-Game Forecast: Picks and Upsets

Grant White

Host · Writer

CFP National Championship
CFP National Championship: TBD vs TBD
- Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
- Location: Miami Gardens, FL
- Time: January 19, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: TBD | Total: TBD
- Moneyline: TBD
While both Texas Tech and Ohio State have received credit for their sharp offensive performances, their defensive acumen will carry them into this year's National Championship. With that, the victor will be determined by which team can make the most of their offensive chances. In what will undoubtedly be a defensive slugfest, we trust the Red Raiders to make the most of their scoring opportunities. It will take a game-winning drive in the waning moments, but Texas Tech emerges as this year's champion!

Predicted Outcome: Texas Tech Wins the National Championship

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CFP First Round
CFP First Round: (9) Alabama Crimson Tide vs (10) Oklahoma Sooners
- Stadium: Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
- Location: Norman, OK
- Time: Friday 8:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: OKLA -1.5 | Total: 39.5
- Moneyline: OKLA -115 | ALA -105
The Alabama Crimson Tide were humbled in their Week 15 showdown versus the Oklahoma Sooners. Bama dropped a 23-21 decision in front of its home faithful, despite entering the contest as -6.5 chalk. While the score didn't go their way, the Crimson Tide outplayed the Sooners in every facet of the game. Alabama out-gained the visitors by nearly 200 yards and held onto the football for almost 35 minutes. A similar performance is expected in the CFP opening round, albeit with a very different outcome.

Predicted Outcome: Alabama 28 - Oklahoma 17

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CFP First Round
CFP First Round: (10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (7) Texas A&M Aggies
- Stadium: Kyle Field
- Location: College Station, TX
- Time: Saturday 12:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: TA&M -3.5 | Total: 48.5
- Moneyline: TA&M -170 | MIA +145
Up until the last week of the season, the Texas A&M Aggies appeared destined for the SEC Championship Game and a top seed in the College Football Playoff. But an upset loss to Texas upended the Aggies' campaign. Now, they have to take the hard way to the CFP Quarterfinals, needing to get past the Miami (FL) Hurricanes in the first round. Miami has strengthened its defense throughout the season, limiting its last four opponents to a combined 41 points. Granted, the Hurricanes face a much stiffer challenge in containing Texas A&M, but we expect the ACC representatives to be up to it. Count this as another early upset.

Predicted Outcome: Miami 28 - Texas A&M 25
CFP First Round
CFP First Round: (20) Tulane Green Wave vs (6) Ole Miss Rebels
- Stadium: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
- Location: Oxford, MS
- Time: Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: MISS -17.5 | Total: 57.5
- Moneyline: MISS -1000 | TULN +600
Tulane lost just two games this season, with one of those defeats coming at the hands of their first-round opponent. Still, we don't expect the Green Wave to exact revenge in Oxford. Back in Week 5, Ole Miss trounced Tulane. The Rebels put up 548 yards of total offense, nearly doubling the 282 yards that Tulane mustered. The Green Wave should manage another respectable offensive performance, but their defense won't be able to snuff out the Rebels' offense. This one goes over the total, and Tulane is positioned to cover the number, but that's the extent of the upset at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

Predicted Outcome: Ole Miss 38 - Tulane 21
CFP First Round
CFP First Round: (25) James Madison Dukes vs (5) Oregon Ducks
- Stadium: Autzen Stadium
- Location: Eugene, OR
- Time: Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: ORE -21.5 | Total: 46.5
- Moneyline: ORE -3000 | JMU +1200
The James Madison Dukes march into the playoffs as Sun Belt Champions. Still, their performance against Troy in Week 15 is a significant cause for concern. JMU was priced at -24.5 chalk and didn't come close to covering the number against the 8-6 Trojans. They had just a three-point halftime lead, needing 14 points in the final four minutes to win by 17. The outlook versus the Oregon Ducks is even worse. Known for its unrelenting offense, the Ducks shifted toward a defense-first approach in 2025. That gives them a significant advantage on both sides of the football, edges we expect them to unmercifully. If Boise State didn't stand a chance against Oregon last year, there's nothing James Madison can do.

Predicted Outcome: Oregon 45 - James Madison 14
CFP Quarterfinal - Cotton Bowl
CFP Quarterfinal - Cotton Bowl: TBD vs (2) Ohio State Buckeyes
- Stadium: AT&T Stadium
- Location: Arlington, TX
- Time: December 31, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: TBD | Total: TBD
- Moneyline: TBD
The Ohio State Buckeyes were bested in the Big Ten Championship Game, but still managed to hang onto the second seed. That sets the defending champs up for a quarterfinal showdown versus the winner of Miami vs. Texas A&M. In either case, Ohio State will be on upset alert. The Hurricanes can match the Buckeyes' defensive intensity, whereas the Aggies are better suited to trade offensive chances with the second-ranked squad. Irrespective of the opponent, Ohio State will enter this matchup as the favorite. Still, either opponent is capable of covering the number in the Cotton Bowl.

Predicted Outcome: Ohio State Advances
CFP Quarterfinal - Orange Bowl
CFP Quarterfinal - Orange Bowl: TBD vs (4) Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
- Location: Miami Gardens, FL
- Time: January 1, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: TBD | Total: TBD
- Moneyline: TBD
The Texas Tech Red Raiders flew under the radar for most of the season, but the Big 12 champs were rewarded for their dominant season with the fourth seed in this year's CFP bracket. Now, they await the winner of the first-round matchup between Oregon and James Madison. Surely, this means Texas Tech will face Oregon in the Orange Bowl. It was easy to fall in love with the Red Raiders' offense this season. Still, their defense will be the difference in the playoffs. They will have no problem containing the Ducks in this quarterfinal, ensuring the Red Raiders' season extends into the semifinals.

Predicted Outcome: Texas Tech Advances
CFP Quarterfinal - Rose Bowl
CFP Quarterfinal - Rose Bowl: TBD vs (1) Indiana Hoosiers
- Stadium: Rose Bowl
- Location: Pasadena, CA
- Time: January 1, 4:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: TBD | Total: TBD
- Moneyline: TBD
The Indiana Hoosiers head into the College Football Playoffs as the presumptive favorites. Indiana knocked off Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, earning the easiest path to the bracket. Nevertheless, they will meet their match in the Alabama Crimson Tide. Bama's defense is its most notable strength. They will need to fire on all cylinders to neutralize the Hoosiers' high-octane offense. Unfortunately for Indiana, we predict their season comes to an unceremonious end with an upset loss to the Crimson Tide in this year's Rose Bowl.

Predicted Outcome: Indiana is Eliminated
CFP Quarterfinal - Sugar Bowl
CFP Quarterfinal - Sugar Bowl: TBD vs (3) Georgia Bulldogs
- Stadium: Caesars Superdome
- Location: New Orleans, LA
- Time: January 1, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: TBD | Total: TBD
- Moneyline: TBD
The Georgia Bulldogs' SEC Championship vaulted them to third in the CFP rankings and earned them a first-round bye. They will take on the winner of Ole Miss vs Tulane, ensuring that we get an all-SEC battle in the Sugar Bowl. Georgia bested Ole Miss in Week 8, scoring 17 fourth-quarter points to escape with an eight-point win. We don't think the Bulldogs will be as fortunate in the CFP Quarterfinal. A neutral location tilts the odds in the Rebels' favor, and Gunner Stockton has been an effective game manager but not a big game x-factor. Ole Miss's magical run continues to the semifinals.

Predicted Outcome: Georgia is Eliminated
CFP Semifinal - Fiesta Bowl
CFP Semifinal - Fiesta Bowl: TBD vs TBD
- Stadium: State Farm Stadium
- Location: Glendale, AZ
- Time: January 8, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: TBD | Total: TBD
- Moneyline: TBD
If the bracket shakes out the way we expect it to, the Ohio State Buckeyes will take on the Ole Miss Rebels in this year's Fiesta Bowl. Assuredly, the Buckeyes will enter this CFP semifinal as mid-range favorites, and we have no doubt they will be able to get past the Rebels. Ole Miss relies on its SEC-best offense, which puts up nearly 500 yards and over 37 points per game. But as we've seen all season, the Buckeyes will have no problem defending against the Rebels' attack. In a more one-sided affair than anticipated, Ohio State covers and moves on to the National Championship.

Predicted Outcome: Ohio State Advances
CFP Semifinal - Peach Bowl
CFP Semifinal - Peach Bowl: TBD vs TBD
- Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Location: Atlanta, GA
- Time: January 9, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: TBD | Total: TBD
- Moneyline: TBD
This year's Peach Bowl should pit the Texas Tech Red Raiders against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama's reputation as a perennial contender will be put to the test against an underappreciated Texas Tech squad. The Red Raiders' defense should have no problem neutralizing an inferior Crimson Tide attack. Further, Texas Tech will use every offensive advantage it has to poke a hole in Bama's defense. Texas Tech makes an unexpected run to the National Championship.

Predicted Outcome: Texas Tech Advances
CFP National Championship
CFP National Championship: TBD vs TBD
- Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
- Location: Miami Gardens, FL
- Time: January 19, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: TBD | Total: TBD
- Moneyline: TBD
While both Texas Tech and Ohio State have received credit for their sharp offensive performances, their defensive acumen will carry them into this year's National Championship. With that, the victor will be determined by which team can make the most of their offensive chances. In what will undoubtedly be a defensive slugfest, we trust the Red Raiders to make the most of their scoring opportunities. It will take a game-winning drive in the waning moments, but Texas Tech emerges as this year's champion!

Predicted Outcome: Texas Tech Wins the National Championship

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
CFP First Round
CFP First Round: (9) Alabama Crimson Tide vs (10) Oklahoma Sooners
- Stadium: Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
- Location: Norman, OK
- Time: Friday 8:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: OKLA -1.5 | Total: 39.5
- Moneyline: OKLA -115 | ALA -105
The Alabama Crimson Tide were humbled in their Week 15 showdown versus the Oklahoma Sooners. Bama dropped a 23-21 decision in front of its home faithful, despite entering the contest as -6.5 chalk. While the score didn't go their way, the Crimson Tide outplayed the Sooners in every facet of the game. Alabama out-gained the visitors by nearly 200 yards and held onto the football for almost 35 minutes. A similar performance is expected in the CFP opening round, albeit with a very different outcome.

Predicted Outcome: Alabama 28 - Oklahoma 17

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College Football Playoff 11-Game Forecast: Picks and Upsets

CFP National Championship: TBD vs TBD

CFP First Round: (9) Alabama Crimson Tide vs (10) Oklahoma Sooners

CFP First Round: (10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (7) Texas A&M Aggies

CFP First Round: (20) Tulane Green Wave vs (6) Ole Miss Rebels

CFP First Round: (25) James Madison Dukes vs (5) Oregon Ducks

CFP Quarterfinal - Cotton Bowl: TBD vs (2) Ohio State Buckeyes

CFP Quarterfinal - Orange Bowl: TBD vs (4) Texas Tech Red Raiders

CFP Quarterfinal - Rose Bowl: TBD vs (1) Indiana Hoosiers

CFP Quarterfinal - Sugar Bowl: TBD vs (3) Georgia Bulldogs

CFP Semifinal - Fiesta Bowl: TBD vs TBD

CFP Semifinal - Peach Bowl: TBD vs TBD

CFP National Championship: TBD vs TBD

CFP First Round: (9) Alabama Crimson Tide vs (10) Oklahoma Sooners

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