NCAAF · 1 year ago

Big Ten Football Power Rankings Following Week 9: Ducks Dominate

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (1-6, 0-4)
Speaking of the best chance to win, if Purdue wants to avoid a donut in the Big Ten and an 11-game losing streak to end the season, the Boilermakers better get their W on Saturday. For most in West Lafayette, it’s already basketball season.

Week 10 | 12:00 p.m. ET | BTN | +1.5 vs. Northwestern
TIER 1 – THE B1G FAVORITES: OHIO STATE & OREGON
Oregon has moved ahead of Ohio State as the betting favorite to win the Big Ten at +110, with the Buckeyes checking in at +165. We could see a change next week depending on what OSU does this Saturday at Penn State. Regarding winning the national title, Ohio State (+400) only looks up at Georgia in the betting odds at FanDuel, with the Ducks (+450) just a little behind. These odds can also shift based on this week’s results, with all eyes on State College, PA.
OREGON DUCKS (8-0, 5-0)
Through two months, the Ducks have been the Big Ten’s most impressive team, as they’ve found consistency since a shaky start. In a dominant win over Illinois (7.9 yards per play to 4.4), two of Oregon’s key players had their best games. RB2 Noah Whittington looked like his old, powerful pre-injury self, picking up 8.0 yards per carry and scoring two TDs (one rushing, one receiving). WR1 Tez Johnson is averaging a career-low 10.1 YPC but gobbled up a season-best 17.0 YPC on his way to 102 yards.

Week 10 | 3:30 | CBS | -15.5 @ Michigan
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (6-1, 3-1)
Something feels a little off in Columbus, particularly at the line of scrimmage. Taking out sack yardage, the Cornhuskers out-ran them 142 yards (4.7 YPC) to 74 (2.6 YPC). That’s not supposed to happen. Remember, they were supposed to be tougher this year, and Chip Kelly was supposed to unlock their running game to a new level. This was their first game without left tackle Josh Simmons, who was much improved this season. Fill-in Zen Michalski allowed two sacks, two pressures, and four hurries in 21 pass-blocking snaps before he was injured.

Week 10 | 12:00 | FOX | -3.5 (-108) @ #3 Penn State
TIER II – THE CHALLENGERS: PENN STATE & INDIANA
Penn State has continued to hang around within striking distance of the favorites at +400 to win the Big Ten in 2024. Indiana (+1400) is in the mix as well, the only other team with better odds than +30000. It’s a four-team race as the calendar turns to November. PSU (+1200) checks with the fifth-best odds to win the National Championship. The Hoosiers are still a long shot (+5000) in this market, tied with Ole Miss, with 11 teams ahead of them. However, at +100, IU is even money to make the College Football Playoff. The Nittany Lions (-650) are favorites to make the CFP.
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (7-0, 4-0)
For the third time this season and the second time on the road in conference play, the Nittany Lions went into the locker room trailing (they were also tied at halftime vs. Illinois), only to come out like gangbusters in the second half. They beat USC 24-10 in the second half to send it to overtime in SoCal and jumped around all over Wisconsin 21-3 in the second half in Madison without Drew Allar. Backup Beau Pribula went 11 of 13 for 98 yards (TD) and rushed for another 28 yards as the defense allowed just one TD and held the Badgers to 4.3 yards per play.

Week 10 | 12:00 | FOX | +3.5 vs. #4 Ohio State
INDIANA HOOSIERS (8-0, 3-0)
It was far from a dominant performance by the Hoosiers in their 31-17 win over Washington. Without Kurtis Rourke, Indiana averaged just 4.4 yards per play, well below their season average of 7.2 YPP, seventh nationally and second in the Big Ten. Their biggest play of the day came from WR Omar Cooper (42-yard TD catch, 26 yards after the catch), averaging a whopping 22.6 YPC and scoring on 20 percent of his receptions. They should be able to handle MSU on Saturday, but they will need a healthy Rourke before everything is said and done.

Week 10 | 3:30 | Peacock | -7.5 @ Michigan State
TIER III – THE BEST OF THE REST: ILLINOIS, IOWA, MICHIGAN, MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, NEBRASKA, USC, WASHINGTON
No one outside the top four in the Big Ten has a realistic chance to win the B1G this season, with Wisconsin leading the way at +30000. They are tied with Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota at +100000 to win the National Championship. So, you’re saying there’s a chance? The oddsmakers at FanDuel have the two-loss Illini at +4900 to make the CFP, the fifth-highest in the B1G, ahead of the Badgers (+10000), Hawkeyes (+10000), Nebraska (+15000), Golden Gophers (+15000), and Wolverines (+20000), all three-loss teams.
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (6-2, 3-2)
Luke Altmyer is one of the Big Ten’s most improved quarterbacks, but he’s found his ceiling against the best defenses the B1G has to offer. Over the past two weeks against Oregon and Michigan, Altmyer is 26 of 53 (49.1%) for 241 yards (4.55 YPA) with no TD to two INTs. How does he bounce back against a surging Golden Gophers team this week?

Week 10 | 12:00 p.m. ET | FS1 | +2.5 (+200) @ Minnesota
IOWA HAWKEYES (5-3, 3-2)
The Hawkeyes bounced back from an upset loss at MSU with their third 40-point game of the season. That’s more 40-point games than Iowa had in the previous three years (2021-23). An early pick-six on a forced red-zone pass by Cade McNamara gave the Wildcats a 7-3 lead. Kirk Ferentz had seen enough and changed to Brandon Sullivan, who brings a rushing dynamic (41 yards, 5.1 YPC, TD) to the offense. Northwestern’s other score came on a punt return TD, as Phil Parker’s defense pitched a shutout and allowed just 163 yards.

Week 10 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC | -3.5 (-102) vs. Wisconsin
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (5-3, 3-2)
Boy, did the Wolverines need that win over their in-state rival, Michigan State. Not just for their bowl hopes but for their psyche as well. It wasn’t an elite performance, but with Jack Tuttle injured (since retired), Week 1 starter Davis Warren was back in shotgun and played a clean game. Warren was 13 of 19 for 123 yards with a TD and, most importantly, no interceptions. Michigan committed no turnovers or penalties, which plagued them in 2024. They didn’t beat themselves, which has often been the case. We should also credit QB2 Alex Orji, who led them in rushing with 64 yards and a TD on six carries, including the game-sealing first down run.

Week 10 | 3:30 | CBS | +15.5 vs. #1 Oregon
MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (5-3, 3-2)
With New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer pulling the trigger, this is Minnesota’s most competent throw game in years. Against Maryland, in a 48-23 win, Brosmer threw for season highs in yards (320) and touchdowns (4), finding WR1 Daniel Jackson (117 yards) and Elijah Spencer (99 yards) twice for scores. The 6’2” Spencer was nearly a 1,000-yard receiver (943 yards) with Charlotte in 2022 and is starting to emerge as a No. 2 option. Only undefeated Indiana, Oregon and Penn State have longer winning streaks than Minnesota’s three.

Week 10 | 12:00 p.m. ET | FS1 | -3 @ Illinois
WISCONSIN BADGERS (5-3, 3-2)
Against teams that can stop the run, the Badgers are in trouble. Tawee Walker was held to 59 yards and 2.7 yards per carry by PSU to snap his streaks of two games with 125-plus yards (three with 94-plus) and four games averaging at least 4.6 yards per carry dating back to their Alabama loss. I guess it does matter who you play. No aspect of Wisconsin’s offense or defense was up to the challenge of playing Penn State. Despite winning three straight conference games coming into last week by an aggregate score of 117-16, their bowl hopes are in doubt.

Week 10 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC | +3.5 (-124) @ Iowa
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (5-3, 2-3)
What do we take from Nebraska pushing Ohio State to the brink in the Shoe? I certainly didn’t see the near upset coming. It could be a moral victory. It’s a sign of progress. But how many moral victories do the Huskers get without a win over a ranked opponent? Or want? I’d want a real one. As good as the Buckeyes are, Nebraska blew it. In the third quarter, they drove to the OSU nine-yard line to settle for a field goal, were stopped on downs after an INT set them up at OSU’s seven-yard line, and came up empty after starting the ensuing possession at the Ohio State 42-yard line. There was Dylan Raiola’s missed TD to Jahmal Banks on a drive that netted no points.

Week 10 | 12:00 p.m. ET | BTN | -6.5 vs. UCLA
USC TROJANS (4-4, 2-4)
The Men of Troy could have gotten tight when their 21-3 and 28-9 leads were cut down to a single score (28-20) midway through the third quarter. Instead, they responded with touchdown drives of 75 and 54 yards on their next two possessions for a comfortable 42-20 win over Rutgers. Miller Moss was sharp and composed, throwing for 308 yards and accounting for three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing).

Week 10 | 7:30 | BTN | -2.5 (-122) @ Washington
WASHINGTON HUSKIES (4-4, 2-3)
Washington does what Washington does. They will outgain their opponent (318 yards to 312 at Indiana)—which they have in every game this season. As for the outcome, that’s a coin toss. The Huskies averaged 5.5 yards per play compared to IU’s 4.4. The run defense was excellent (3.6 yards per carry), but they didn’t create enough havoc (no sacks, no TFLs). The difference in the game was a 67-yard pick-six by the Hoosiers to open the scoring as Washington was driving in Indiana territory, which forced the Huskies to play catchup the rest of the game.

Week 10 | 7:30 | BTN | +2.5 (+100) vs. USC
TIER IV – THE FRINGE: MICHIGAN STATE, MARYLAND, RUTGERS
All three teams stand at .500 (4-4) and have realistic chances of making a bowl game, with Maryland being the least likely. The team to watch is Rutgers, who play the Terps (Nov. 16) and Michigan State (Nov. 30) on the road.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (4-4, 2-3)
Sparty had every chance to make their rival’s season even more miserable with an upset in Ann Arbor. They out-rushed the Wolverines 163 yards to 119 and dominated the time of possession 37:05 to 22:55, two old-school barometers that usually mean a lot in the battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy. Mistakes and missed opportunities were costly, as they cracked the five-yard line on their opening drive only to miss a field goal and turned the ball over on downs on their final drive after getting in the red zone with a chance to tie (or win) in the final minutes. Spartan fans will think about that all offseason, especially if they miss a bowl.

Week 10 | 3:30 | Peacock | +7.5 vs. #13 Indiana
MARYLAND TERAPINS (4-4, 1-4)
This was supposed to be the best defense of the Mike Locksley era. They ain’t it. They’ve allowed 155 points (38.8) in the past four games. It’s one thing to give up 42 to Indiana, but to allow Northwestern (18.4 PPG) to score 37 and 48 to Minnesota (27.9 PPG)—season highs for both—is inexcusable. I’d say it’s time for that unit to regroup with an extra week, but their loss to Northwestern came following their first idle week in October.

Week 10 | Idle
RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS (4-4, 1-4)
After starting the season 4-0, the Scarlet Knights have dropped four straight and have lost two of their past three by at least 22 points. The offense was held to seven points twice, and the defense allowed 119 points in the past three games (39.7 PPG) after giving up 79 in their first five games (15.8). Injuries have played a role in their decline, and Greg Schiano's team needs a week off to regroup.

Week 10 | Idle
TIER V – THE BOTTOM: UCLA, NORTHWESTERN, PURDUE
Since Northwestern and Purdue square off this Saturday, this group will get at least one more win, but that might be it. UCLA has five games left, and you can make a case they’re all winnable, so they’re the most likely of this tier to shock the world and make a bowl game.
UCLA BRUINS (2-5, 1-4)
After blowing a late fourth-quarter lead to Minnesota, the Bruins won at Rutgers for their first-ever Big Ten victory. After starting the season in Hawaii and flying to LSU, Penn State, and Rutgers, UCLA can experience some normalcy down the stretch. Three of their final five games are at home, and they play at Washington, a traditional Pac-12 opponent. The critical game might be this Saturday at Nebraska, where the Bruins are less than a touchdown underdog. Ethan Garbers is healthy but has been sacked 15 times in his past four starts. Ouch!

Week 10 | 3:30 | BTN | +6.5 @ Nebraska
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (3-5, 1-4)
The Wildcats have not scored an offensive touchdown since scoring 37 points on Maryland. Their effort in Iowa City was incredibly inept, as the Wildcats managed 163 yards on 3.2 yards per play. A.J. Henning led them with 22 receiving yards, and we saw QB3 Ryan Hilinski make his first appearance of the season in relief. The defense wasn’t much better, as they allowed three scoring scampers of 25-plus yards. This Saturday is their best chance to get another win.

Week 10 | 12:00 p.m. ET | BTN | -1.5 @ Purdue
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (1-6, 0-4)
Speaking of the best chance to win, if Purdue wants to avoid a donut in the Big Ten and an 11-game losing streak to end the season, the Boilermakers better get their W on Saturday. For most in West Lafayette, it’s already basketball season.

Week 10 | 12:00 p.m. ET | BTN | +1.5 vs. Northwestern
TIER 1 – THE B1G FAVORITES: OHIO STATE & OREGON
Oregon has moved ahead of Ohio State as the betting favorite to win the Big Ten at +110, with the Buckeyes checking in at +165. We could see a change next week depending on what OSU does this Saturday at Penn State. Regarding winning the national title, Ohio State (+400) only looks up at Georgia in the betting odds at FanDuel, with the Ducks (+450) just a little behind. These odds can also shift based on this week’s results, with all eyes on State College, PA.

Big Ten Football Power Rankings Following Week 9: Ducks Dominate

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