College Football Best Bets for Week 10: B1G Bets Expert Predictions | Big Ten Picks

Even though we went 3-4 last week, we broke even thanks to our BIGGEST bet and were happy about our picks (outside of Ohio State), including our team total on Northwestern. It’s time to put October behind us and look ahead to November!

Last Week: 3-4 (Even) | Overall: 24-32-1 (-4.5 UNITS)

Regular Bets: 9-17-1 (-4 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 10-11 (-1) | B1GGER Bets: 5-2 (+4.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-2 (-4 UNITS)

ATS Bets: 14-18-1 (-4 UNITS) | Team Totals: 9-11 (+0.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 1-3 (-1 UNIT)

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

REGULAR BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 1-2 | Season: 9-17-1 (-4 UNITS)

UCLA UNDER 16.5 (FanDuel)

Nebraska was embarrassed by Indiana two weeks ago but bounced back with a vengeance last week at Ohio State. They will return home and continue their strong play. The Cornhuskers have allowed ten points or less in their five wins (7.4 PPG), four of which came at home. Maybe UCLA keeps it close—they’re a trendy dog this week—it won’t be because of their offense (they scored 17 points or less in six of seven games).

The Bruins are 119th in points/drive, 113th in success rate (133rd/rush, 66th/dropback), 84th in EPA (108th/rush, 75th/dropback), and 118th in field position.

Nebraska’s defense is 49th in points/drive, 21st in EPA (16th/rush, 30th/dropback), 70th in success rate (52nd/rush, 84th/dropback), and 49th in field position.

Ty Robinson (4 sacks, 7 TFLs, 3 BUs) is one of the B1G’s best defensive linemen, as the Huskers are third in the conference in sacks (23) and tied for second in TFLs (53). They will cause havoc along the line of scrimmage, making for a long day for UCLA’s offense.

Nebraska got a moral victory last week, but coming off a pair of losses, they will need a real one to secure their first bowl bid since 2016, and the defense will deliver.

Indiana -7.5 MICHIGAN STATE (FanDuel)

I hear that Michigan State is playing better football as the season progresses. They beat Iowa two weeks ago but lost to a struggling Michigan team (the Wolverines’ second cover of the season) last week and have dropped four of five games. Sure, two of those losses have come against Ohio State and Oregon. I won’t hold it against them, but where is the evidence of improved play?

Indiana’s offense is No. 1 in success rate (third/rushing, first/dropback), No. 2 in points per drive, and No. 2 in EPA (10th/rushing, second/dropback).

Michigan State’s defense is No. 89 points per drive, No. 50 in EPA (29th/rushing, 89th/dropback), and No. 42 in success rate (19th/rushing, 78th/dropback).

The Hoosiers are first in net points per drive (first!!!) and second in net field position, while the Spartans are ranked 106th in net points per drive and 115th in net field position.

IU is third in the Big Ten (93.6%) in the red zone, and MSU is 15th in red zone defense (76%). The Hoosiers are 13th overall in turnover margin, while the Spartans are 118th and have committed 16 more penalties. One is a crisp football team, a well-oiled machine, while the other is among the most mistake-prone in college football.

With Kurtis Rourke back as the trigger man, he will lead IU to their ninth double-digit win. For the Indiana ain’t played nobody crowd…are we saying 4-4 Michigan State is suddenly somebody? Come on. Stop it.

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B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 1-2 | Season: 10-11 (-1 UNIT)

MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 21.5 (FanDuel)

We’re not ready to put Indiana’s defense up there with Ohio State’s or Penn State’s, but the boys from Bloomington have been pretty damn good this year: 14th in points/drive, 13th in success rate (18th/rush/21st dropback), 23rd in EPA (21st/rush/19th dropback), and 12th in field position.

The boys from East Landing have been pretty damn not good this year on offense: 114th in points/drive, 61st in success rate (48th/rush/71st dropback), 71st in EPA (46th/rush/89th dropback), and 115th in field position.

The Spartans struggle on early downs (92nd EPA), a strength of Indiana’s (9th in EPA), putting freshman Aidan Chiles in a tough spot. The Hoosiers top the Big Ten in sacks (24) and TFLs (54) and have nine INTs (tied for third). Eight IU defenders have at least three tackles for loss, led by edge Mikail Kamara (7 sacks, 10 TFLs).

They are physical up front and athletic on the back end, holding six of eight opponents to 17 points or fewer. Meanwhile, Sparty has scored more than 17 points in two of seven FBS games.

PENN STATE +3.5 Ohio State (FanDuel)

The Buckeyes’ metrics are elite, ranked third nationally in net points/drive. The Nittany Lions aren’t that far off, ranked eighth in net points/drive.

They’re both excellent at rushing the football and stopping the run. They’re both excellent at throwing the football and stopping the pass. I would favor Ohio State on a neutral field, but not by much. Of course, this game isn’t on a neutral field. It’s in Beaver Stadium, so if you’re giving me over a field goal with Penn State at home, I’m gobbling up those points like leftover Snickers bars on Halloween night.

When these teams played last season, OSU won 20-12. The most considerable improvement we’ve seen on either side is PSU’s passing offense. They’re second in dropback success rate and third in EPA/dropback. You don’t care for advanced metrics? How about Drew Allar’s improved completion percentage of 71.3 (59.9% in 2023) and 10.0 yards per attempt (6.8 in 2023). It’s not even close.

Allar is running around in practice, and expect him to start with Beau Pribula, one of the more reliable backups in the Big Ten. He led the Nittany Lions to a comeback win in Madison last week and brings the added dimension of running the football, so expect to see Pribula regardless of Allar’s status.

PSU is also running the ball better this season, particularly Nicholas Singleton, who looked off as a sophomore (4.4 YPC) and is up two yards per carry (6.4 YPC).

A big part of this handicap is the new offensive coordinator in Happy Valley. We believe in Andy Kotelnicki, who will have something up his sleeve to exploit Jim Knowles’s over-aggressiveness.

Then there’s the most significant mismatch: Ohio State’s offensive line against Penn State’s front. The Buckeyes lost starting left tackle Josh Simmons, who was rising on draft boards, and last week, backup Zen Michalski went down. It appears the Buckeyes’ answer is to move their best lineman, guard Donovan Jackson, out to tackle. That’s not his ideal position, and we’re not sure he can handle Abdul Carter off the edge. It could also significantly hurt their interior blocking.

This is not the defense to be figuring things out on the line of scrimmage against. They’re excellent against the run and even better at getting after the quarterback. As good as OSU’s weapons are, Will Howard has the sixth-worst passing grade under pressure per PFF. It will be all about the trench play.

IOWA -2 Wisconsin (ESPNBet)

The Hawkeyes are the better team. Not by a lot, per the metrics, but the numbers back it up. Iowa is 37th in net points/drive and 28th in EPA margin, and Wisconsin is 51st in net points/drive and 47th in EPA margin.

Since losing to Iowa State at home, the Hawkeyes have won by margins of 17, 24, and 26 in Kinnick Stadium. They’ve scored 40 points in their past two at home (vs. Washington & Northwestern) and three of five at home in 2024, which is more 40-point games than they’ve had in the past three seasons combined. They’re averaging 35.5 PPG at home, which is stunning.

The biggest reason is RB Kaleb Johnson, who has been as good as any player in the Big Ten. Johnson, a powerful runner with breakaway speed, has rushed for 1,144 yards, 7.8 YPC, and 16 TDs and has drawn comparisons to Derrick Henry. He’s a star running behind Iowa’s best offensive line in years.

The Hawkeyes are going with Brendan Sullivan, who closed out last week’s 40-14 win over Northwestern. Sullivan entered the game when Iowa trailed 7-3. We don’t want to mislead you because Sullivan wasn’t asked to do much. More than anything, Kirk Ferentz needs his quarterback to protect the football. Don’t lose the game. In Iowa’s three losses, Cade McNamara had one TD pass to four INTs.

We do like that Sullivan brings the added dimension of running the football. As QB2, he was used inside the 10-yard line and scored three touchdowns. Even more impressive, despite a short field and defenses expecting the run, Sullivan averages 4.5 yards per carry. He’s a better fit for offensive coordinator Tim Lester’s attack.

This is a good matchup for Iowa against a Wisconsin defense that is 86th in yards per rush allowed, 79th in defensive rushing success rate, and 53rd in EPA/rush. The Hawkeyes average 5.69 YPC, 12th in the country, better than any run game Wisky has seen.  

Iowa also has a monster special teams edge, ranked fifth by SP+, and is one of the best in college football (fifth in net field position) compared to the Badgers, ranked 75th.

We thought Wisconsin would be exposed by Penn State after winning three straight against Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern (1-10 in October and 2-12 in conference play). In their only road game against a decent team, the Badgers lost 38-21 at USC. I thought they were overvalued by the betting market last week, and they still are.

B1GGER BETS (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 5-2 (+4.5 UNITS)

Wisconsin UNDER 20.5 (FanDuel)

We were on Iowa’s defense (lost) and against Wisconsin’s offense (won) and should have won both. Northwestern scored 14 points—on a pick-six and punt return for a touchdown—so Phil Parker’s defense pitched a shutout.

The Hawkeyes rank seventh in the country by SP+, 12th in points per drive, 19th in EPA, and 12th in field position. They uncharacteristically gave up some big plays early in the season but have cleaned things up and are back up to 17th in fewest plays of 40+ yards and 11th in fewest plays of 30+ yards allowed.

Jay Higgins leads the B1G in tackles (84), and Nick Jackson has four 100-tackle seasons. At 300 pounds, Aaron Graves leads B1G DTs with his five sacks. They have quality and depth up front, with defensive MVP Sebastian Castro, who is healthy after missing the MSU game, headlining the secondary.

As we told you last week, Wisconsin got fat against Purdue (52 points), Rutgers (42 points), and, to a lesser extent, Northwestern (23 points). The Boilermakers are 127th in yards per play allowed, the Scarlet Knights are 113th, and the Wildcats are 51st. These are not good defenses.

After averaging 8.1 yards per play against Purdue (which would lead the nation) and 7.3 YPP vs. Rutgers (6th), the Badgers were down to 5.4 YPP against Northwestern (95th) and 4.3 vs. Penn State (131st) last week.  

Maybe the Hawkeyes are a notch below PSU, but they’re still an elite group. Do you trust Braedyn Locke (7 TDs, 6 INTs) on the road at a rabid Kinnick Stadium at night? Yeah, neither do I. Against elite defenses, the Badgers have scored 10 points vs. Alabama (12th SP+) and 13 vs. Penn State (3rd SP+), both at home.

I don’t remember the last time a non-top-five Iowa opponent had a team total this high.

B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-2 (-4 UNITS)

WASHINGTON +2.5 Usc (BetMGM)

This line has me scratching my head. These teams are pretty even, and I might even give the Huskies a slight edge. But let’s say it’s even; Washington would be a three-point favorite at home. Instead, we’re getting points?

USC is 22nd in EPA margin and 39th in net points/drive, and Washington is 20th in EPA margin and 55th in net points/drive. The Trojans are 16th in offensive success rate and 100th in defensive success rate, and the Huskies are 14th in offensive success rate and 34th in defensive success rate.

Washington averages 6.57 yards per play (25th) and allows 4.43 (5th), while USC averages 6.42 yards per play (34th) and allows 5.69 (80th).

We know about Washington’s special teams issues and penchant for beating themselves. There’s a reason they’ve outgained every opponent and are 4-4. There’s also a reason the Trojans have led in the fourth quarter of every game and are 4-4.

Both teams are flawed. Both have good offenses. Only one has a good defense.

Then, we have the home-road splits. If you’ve been following B1GBets, you know about Lincoln Riley’s road record as a favorite. He’s 2-10 ATS at USC (including outright losses to Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland this season) as a road favorite and 3-13 since 2021. The Trojans have allowed 18.5 PPG at home, compared to 26.7 on the road.

Conversely, the Huskies are 4-0 at home, including a win over a Michigan team that beat USC. Will Rogers has been much better in the friendly confines: 10 TDs, 1 INT, 73.9%, and 9.1 yards per attempt. I’ll trust Jonah Coleman (785 yards, 6.7 YPC, 5 TDs) on any field and expect him to have a big day against the Trojans, who lost two key defensive linemen for the season, as well as their best run defender, linebacker Eric Gentry.

I’ll take the points as the Huskies win outright.

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